Trade Map.

Transcription

1 Trade Map

2 Online user-friendly application to analyse global trade flows, based on one of the largest trade flow databases in the world.

3 Trade Map What is the level of global market demand for my product? Who are the fastest growing markets in the world market? Who are the main importing and exporting countries? Which companies import my product in a given market? What is the most interesting market for my product? Selection of most attractive market for your product

4 Trade Map Key characteristics Geographical coverage Information for over 220 countries and territories using data reported by 196 countries and territories for one or more years since 2001 Data for non-reporting countries is derived from mirror statistics Product coverage For the Harmonized System (HS): over 5,300 products at the 6 digit level For the National Tariff Line: up to 10,000 products (for +180 countries) Data sources National Authorities UN Comtrade, produced by the United Nations Statistics Division

5 Data update How often are the data updated? All year round Annual data at the tariff line level Monthly and Quarterly data Twice a year (May / October) Trade in services Four times a year Indicators (Trends) Annual data at 6 digit level of the HS Tariffs (AVEs)

6 Limitations of international trade statistics Inclusion of re-imports and re-exports The export value refers to the total or contract value, not the local valueadded Similar products may be categorized differently Exchange rate fluctuations are not always recorded Only some countries include re-imports and re-exports data Trade data are not complete: smuggling, non-reporting, mistakes, Mirror data

7 Re-exports All countries report re-export together with their export (same for import). Total export = direct export + re-export Some countries report re-exports besides their total export statistics. Example: Hong Kong imports mobile phones from China and re-exports them (i.e. exports them some time after in the same state) to India and USA.

8 Why is China an importing partner of China? More than 90% of China s imports from China are produced in China, exported to Hong Kong and then re-imported in China Why? 1 China Hong Kong 2 Goods entering for processing trade are exempted from import duties Geographic and logistic convenience Business management of multinational enterprises and their distribution centers are often based in Hong Kong

9 Data types Direct data Submitted by national authorities to ITC or UN Comtrade Mirror data Reconstructed data on the basis of data reported by partner countries

10 Value indicated in Trade Map The value of direct data is given as reported by the country, converted into current USD according to the average daily Interbank Exchange Rates ( without any adjustments.

11 Mirror statistics Iran mirror data Iran (non-reporting country) Impossible to get data Australia (reporting country) Australia direct data In Trade Map mirror data is presented in yellow colour Myanmar (non-reporting country)

12 Mirror data Be aware United Nations recommendation: Price of the product Transportation and insurance costs Export Imports FOB: Free On Board CIF: Cost Insurance Freight

13 Mirror data example Exports of Iran China (reporting country) Invoice Value $920 FOB value $920 Iran (non-reporting country) Imports from Iran reported by China Invoice Value $920 Insurance Paid $20 Freight Paid $60 Total CIF Value $1000

14 Mirror data Be aware But not all countries comply with United Nations recommendations. Check it out in the country's metadata.

15 Beware of the colors in Trade Map World aggregation of reporting and non reporting countries Mirror data Negative trade balance for this product Quantities estimated by UNSD Quantities estimated by ITC

16 Attractive market selection using Trade Map Identify the right HS code for your product HS-6 digit code National Tariff Line code Analyse demand for your product Market size and growth Market shares Access the target market Competition and distances Customer information

17 Harmonized System Product Classification Chapter 09 Coffee, tea, mate, spices Headings 0901 Coffee 0902 Tea 0903 Mate Subheadings Green tea Black tea Black tea >3kg National Tariff Lines xx yy Country specific

18 HS (International standard) 09 Coffee, tea, mate and spices Tea Green tea (not fermented) in packages not exceeding 3 kg China NTL (NON standard) Japan US Flavoured green tea in packings=3kg Unflavoured green tea in packings=3kg Green tea (not fermented) in packages not exceeding 3 kg Green tea (not fermented), certified organic, in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg, not flavored Green tea (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg, other than certified organic, not flavored

19 HS Chapter 99 «Commodities not elsewhere specified» Reasons The product can not be identified under other HS codes The country wants to protect part of its trade information The reported data is incomplete and the difference with the total is allocated to the HS code

20 Which HS revision is used in Trade Map? Existing revisions In each revision, product codes may be created (new significant product) removed (product have become marginal) reallocated (trade volume changed) The analysis of such products codes should be approached with caution! For time series, the revision applied by the country in the reporting year is used. For calculating trade indicators, HS 2012 revision is used.

21 HS Revision history module For black fermented tea

22 For fresh cheries

23 QUIZ Can you identify the following HS codes? What is the Harmonized System code of Black Tea in 2017? What is the NTL code for Black fermented tea and partly fermented tea, whether or not flavoured, in immediate packings of > 3 kg? In Belgium? In Sri Lanka? Is there any interesting information provided in the description of the NTL lines of Sri Lanka? Time allowed: 2 minutes

24 Trade Map: product perspective Black fermented tea and partly fermented tea, whether or not flavoured, in immediate packings of > 3 kg

25 Attractive market selection using Trade Map Identify the right HS code for your product HS-6 digit code National Tariff Line code Analyse demand for your product Market size and growth Market shares Access the target market Competition and distances Customer information

26 Brainstorm? What criteria should you take into account to identify an attractive market?

27 What does an exporter need to take into account to select the right market? Which markets are attractive? What products should I focus on? What are the market requirements to export to these countries? What are the consumer trends in the importing country? What packaging should I use? What pricing strategy should I use? How will I promote my product? How do I obtain trade finance? What are the risks of doing business in these markets?

28 Trade Map Click here to login or create your account

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30 Trade indicators in Trade Map Market size Market growth / Dynamism Other performance indicators More indicators

31 Trade indicators in Trade Map

32 Market size Market size

33 Market size and unit values Market size can be measured in terms of Imported Value USD, EUR, SAR, Imported Quantity Tons, Liters, pairs, Unit Value = Value / Quantity

34 Unit Value is not a price Careful when interpreting, it is not a price paid in a shop by a customer. Unit values are an average over the whole period covered, however prices vary across the year: e.g. vegetables Every product code contains many different product sold (even at NTL level) Value added by importing companies, tax, custom tariffs, etc. are not included Useful for the calculation of tariffs equivalent

35 Trade Balance Indicator of the asymmetry of the economy in its trade relationship with the rest of the world Most well known indicator is the nominal trade deficit or surplus Usually broken down by product and by country (bilateral balance) Trade Balance = Exports (X) Imports (M) X > M Trade surplus M > X Trade deficit

36 Growth indicators Market growth

37 QUIZ Analyze the market for a product Identify the top 5 importers of Black Tea (090240) in 2016 in value terms What is the growth rate of the top importer in terms of value between 2012 and 2016? And in terms of quantity? Identify the top 5 net exporters of Black Tea in 2016 Time allowed: 3 minutes

38 Benchmarking growth rates If annual growth rate (%) is greater than 0? If annual growth rate (%) is equal to 0? If annual growth rate (%) is less than 0? Demand is growing Demand is stagnating Demand is declining But what does a growth rate of 2% really mean? You need to compare the growth with a benchmark!

39 QUIZ Analyze your country s growth Compare growth rate of target market s imports with the overall growth in world imports How dynamic is the target market compared to the world market? Compare growth of Sri Lanka s exports to the world with the overall growth in world exports How does Sri Lanka perform compared to other suppliers? Compare growth of target market s imports with the growth of the market s imports from specific suppliers Which of your competitors are gaining or losing shares in the target market?

40 Trend in unit values Growth in Unit Value Growth in value Growth in quantity Increasing UV Stable UV Decreasing UV

41 QUIZ Analyze the export performance of a country What is Sri Lanka s export growth rate in value of Black Tea (090240) in 2016? Is Sri Lanka s unit value for Black Tea increasing or decreasing in its main export market? Is Sri Lanka gaining or losing market shares in the world market of Black Tea? Time allowed: 3 minutes

42 Attractive market selection using Trade Map Identify the right HS code for your product HS-6 digit code National Tariff Line code Analyse demand for your product Market size and growth Market shares Access the target market Competition and distances Customer information

43 Other performance indicators Other performance indicators

44 Other performance indicators Share of partner countries in world exports World market share of the displayed countries in global exports Ranking of partner countries in world exports Ranking based on the country ranking according to the reported trade value Total exports growth in value of partner countries between Exports growth rates of the displayed countries with the entire world

45 More indicators More indicators

46 Distance of supplying/importing countries Selection Product Average distance between countries and all of its suppliers Selection Product + Country Average distance of partner countries to all their suppliers Real distance between selected country and partner countries never show Distance of supplying/importing countries is displayed to compare your own distance against those of your competitors

47 QUIZ Concentration in your product s market List of countries exporting Black Tea to Russia in 2016 Exporters Import Value ($ mill.) Market share (%) Method to calculate share World India =140/445 Sri Lanka =125/445 Kenya =77/445 Vietnam =28/445 Indonesia =24/445 Rest of the world =51/445 Do you think that the Russian market for Black Tea (090240) is concentrated or fragmented?? Source: Trade Map (2017)

48 Market concentration: The Herfindahl Index A tool to measure concentration, product or market diversification The index ranges from 1 to 0 1 = only one supplier 0 = many suppliers, each with very small share Rule of < 0.1 = Diversified = Moderately concentrated > 0.18 = Concentrated

49 QUIZ Analyze the competition in the market What is Sri Lanka s #1 importing market (in value) for Black Tea (090240) Who is Sri Lanka s main competitor in its #1 importing market (in terms of value) for Black Tea? Is this market fragmented or concentrated? Why? Is this good or bad for Sri Lanka? Time allowed: 3 minutes

50 Average tariff applied by the country tariff / tarif/ Noun A tax or duty to be paid on imports or exports Tariffs in Trade Map are based on the minimum rates applied by the importing country(s) Data is retrieved from the ITC Market Access Map database

51 Ease of doing business rankings Based on the World Bank - Doing Business economy rankings Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business High ranking The regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm

52 Ease of doing business rankings The rankings are determined by sorting the aggregate distance to frontier scores on 10 topics Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Resolving Insolvency Getting Credit Getting Electricity Paying Taxes Registering Property Protecting Minority Investors Enforcing Contracts Trading across Borders

53 Methodological issues o Missing Trade Indicators: No 5 year trend is calculated if the reporting country data is not available for at least a four-year period except if the first and last year are available. o Rounding vs. no data: Trade data that are not reported are shown as a blank entry. Trade values < USD500 are rounded to 0 (USD thousand)

54 Time series in Trade Map Trade Map allows you to display and download time series of the indicators of your interest Imports Yearly data By country Values Exports Quarterly data By product Quantities Monthly data By service Growth Share in values Unit values Etc.

55 Time series in Trade Map Extra option in product view: Supplementary unit selection

56 Complementing Trade in Goods, Trade Map also covers Trade in Services Statistics

57 Trade in Services

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59 Trade in Services: Classification Balance of Payments Manual (BPM): 12 broad categories 1. Manufacturing services 2. Maintenance and repair services 3. Transport 4. Travel 5. Construction 6. Insurance and pension services 7. Financial services 8. Charges for the use of intellectual property 9. Telecommunications, computer and information services 10. Other business services 11. Personal, cultural and recreational services 12. Government goods and services

60 What else can you do with Trade Map?

61 What else can you do with Trade Map? (1/6) Seasonality in the target market

62 What else can you do with Trade Map? (2/6) Russia company data

63 What else can you do with Trade Map? (3/6) Trade Map: country perspective

64 What else can you do with Trade Map? (4/6) Performance

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66 What else can you do with Trade Map? (5/6) Use graphs and maps to visualize your analysis

67 What else can you do with Trade Map? (6/6) Define your own product and country groups according to your needs

68 Trade Map - Embedded version Trade Map s export & import statistics and company contact information directly on ITC partners websites Display trade data through tables, graphs and maps Direct link to the generic ITC Trade Map Available for National Trade Promotion organizations, statistical offices, customs insitutions, ministries of trade Any updates in Trade Map automatically updates on the partner institution s website as well Speed of the partner website is not important, since the application is hosted on ITC servers

69 Trade Map - Embedded version First version was Malawi s National Statistical Office

70 Summary: you should now be able to Understand the characteristics and features of Fully grasp the basic international trade concepts used in Interpret all the trade indicators Analyse the demand for your product and select an attractive market Analyse your country s trade performance Extract the data and visualize them in various graphical approaches

71 For more information ITCmarketanalysistools