Preparing for Climate Change Impacts Door County, WI

Transcription

1 Preparing for Climate Change Impacts Door County, WI

2 Wisconsin s Changing Climate Historical overview Possible futures Adaptation strategies

3 What is climate? Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. Climate is like dice; weather is the outcome of a single roll. Climate change changes the shape and weighting of the dice

4 Recent warming of the atmosphere IPCC 2007

5 What do we know about climate? Individual records of different types going back thousands of years (or more) In WI: Temperature and precipitation records back to 1869 Allows us to observe trends and long-scale climatic patterns

6 Secondary temperature records Magnuson et al 2000

7 Loaded dice highs vs lows

8 Wisconsin Climate Network Records back to 1860s Madison Daily data back to 1950s

9 Historical Precipitation Precipitation has risen everywhere except the far north. Results are highly sensitive to a few large events

10 Precipitation change: seasonal Strong seasonal and spatial variability

11 Historical precipitation

12 Historical Temperatures Temperatures have risen over the past 60 years, but largely over the NW portion of the state. Statewide average temperature has gone up ~1.5 F

13 Historical temperature change: Temperature changes have been most marked in the winter seasonal

14 Northeastern WI temperature Dec-Jan-Feb

15 Northeastern WI temperature Jun-Jul-Aug

16 How do we project future climate General Circulation Models Global-scale models of land, ocean, and atmospheric interactions conditions?

17 How do we project future climate conditions? Downscaled climate models Start with GCM outputs Embed statistical or physical regional model at finer scale Better represents local conditions

18 Climate change impacts in the Wisconsin: temperature Increasing temperatures Coastal areas somewhat buffered by lake effects

19 Future temperature change: seasonal Existing trend of warmer winters is projected to continue

20 Climate change impacts in the Wisconsin: Precipitation Changing precipitation Increased winter precipitation Decreasing summer precipitation (?) Increased variability

21 Impacts unclear different models predict different outcomes ~75% predict a decline ~25% predict a rise Median is around 1.3 decline Climate Impacts: Lake levels

22 Climate Impacts: Lake temperatures

23 How do models compare? Models are calibrated to global metrics, not local Good models may not produce accurate local results. Lake and ice dynamics make coastal impacts more uncertain Scientists tend to look at the change models predict, rather than the absolute values

24 Modeled climate: Sturgeon Bay, WI ; Data from six GCM/RCM combinations created by NARCCAP

25 Modeled climate: Sturgeon Bay, WI ; Data from six GCM/RCM combinations created by NARCCAP

26 What can we conclude? Climate is changing Hard to distinguish decadal-scale variability from longer-term change Long-term variability is higher than we have observed over the past 60 years There remains high uncertainty about what changes to expect

27 What are the risks? Stormwater flooding Potential for increased summertime rains

28 What are the risks? More frequent extreme heat

29 What are the risks? Lake level change Potential declines as high as 5 would increase dredging costs and could render some harbors unusable Increases could exacerbate bluff erosion and put shore infrastructure at risk

30 What are the risks? Ecosystem impacts Algae blooms Habitat loss Coastal wetland loss

31 What are the risks? Coastal erosion Increased wave energy Potential higher water Potential higher groundwater

32 How can communities react? Identify vulnerabilities What structures or assets could be flooded or damaged? What are vulnerable ecosystems? What are key natural resources? What are key economic resources? Plan for resilience

33 Vulnerabilities critical infrastructure Critical infrastructure Emergency response Communication network Transportation network Hospitals Water supply Waste water treatment Schools Hazardous materials Prisons

34 Vulnerabilities - ecosystems Coastal wetlands Sand dunes Threatened or protected species Isolated populations

35 Vulnerabilities natural/economic resources Water resources Beaches and parks Forestry Agriculture Tourism

36 Prioritize critical risks Loss of life Major or ongoing economic losses Major social or cultural disruption In other words identify unacceptable losses.

37 Plan for resiliency in an uncertain future Floating docks vs fixed Increased setbacks from vulnerable coastlines Heat-tolerant plants in long-term plantings Develop emergency response plans for climaterelated risks Heat waves Floods Major storms

38 Final Thoughts Uncertainty is the only certainty Models Emissions Land use Lake management Building resilience will reap benefits regardless of the future

39 Additional Resources Coastal Community Adaptation Checklist. NOAA Seagrant, 2012 Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State Coastal Managers (and Great Lakes Supplement). NOAA, WICCI Coastal Communities Working Group Report. WICCI, 2011 Wisconsin s Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. WICCI, 2011

40 Additional questions? Evan Murdock Wisconsin Seagrant