Anthropogenic Energy and Carbon Flows in Canada:

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1 Anthropogenic Energy and Carbon Flows in Canada: Rethinking Climate Change Solutions June 19, 2017 Kunbi B. Adetona & David B. Layzell

2 Canada s GHG Emissions (722 MtCO 2 e/yr in 2015) Biology: Part of the Problem & Part of the Solution WASTE & AGRICULTURE Microbial production of methane (CH 4 ) & nitrous oxide (N 2 O): 84 Mt CO 2 e/yr Stationary (328) Agriculture (59) Indust. Processes (57) Transportation (202) Fugitive (57) BIOENERGY & BIOFUELS Reduce fossil fuel demand: Wood to heat & power Ethanol & biodiesel ENERGY - FUGITIVE Microbial production of CH 4 from tailings ponds:?? Mt CO 2 e/yr BIOLOGICAL CARBON MANAGEMENT C stock changes in agriculture & managed forests (reported, but not counted)

3 Quantifying GHG Emissions & Removals Sectors Flows to Atmosphere Carbon CO Stock 2 CH 4 N 2 O Changes Energy production & use Non-energy use (exc. Agri. and For.) Agriculture Forestry - - (Soil) (Plant & soil) The C stock changes may hide much large flows of CO 2 to & from the atmosphere. Perhaps by understanding all anthropogenic energy & C flows, we may be able to identify new solutions for climate change mitigation. Quantified, but not counted in national totals

4 PhD Research Objective To quantify and integrate all anthropogenic energy and carbon flows to inform policy and investment decisions on greenhouse gas management in Canada. Specific Objectives: Compare energy and carbon flows associated with the production and use of fuels, electricity, food, and fibre; Build technology and behaviour-rich pathways contributing to bio-based climate change solutions to 2060; and Identify the most promising pathways to inform policy and investment decisions.

5 10,000 PJ Canada s Fuel & Electricity Systems (2013) Export Oil Natural Gas Biomass Primary Energy Energy Sectors (Fuel & electricity only) Demand Sectors

6 10,000 PJ Demand Sectors

7 10,000 PJ Energy (PJ/yr) Canada s Fuel & Electricity Systems (2013)

8 10,000 PJ NG Oil Coal Biomass Canada s Fuel & Electricity Systems (2013) Energy (PJ/yr) 30 Kg C/ GJ

9 10,000 PJ NG Oil 200 Mt C Coal Biomass Canada s Fuel & Electricity Systems (2013) Energy (PJ/yr) 30 Carbon (Mt C/yr) Kg C/ GJ The biomass flows are only for fuel and electricity. What are the carbon flows like for all of Forestry and Agriculture?

10 Methods Gov t & Industry Data StatsCan NRCan AgCan NFDB Prov. data Scientific Literature Energy & C contents Fuel & electricity in / out Fugitive emissions Computer Model(s) Flows of energy & C associated with: Fuel & electricity production & use Annual harvest of forestry & agriculture Inform decision makers Simulate Future Energy & C Flows Calculate and assess the costs, benefits, & trade-offs Results & Interpretation Technology & policy options

11 1 o Production (68) Energy (7.3) Forestry C Flows (Mt C/yr) [For ~0.7 Mha harvested out of the 232 Mha managed forest] Imported (4.1) Exported (18) Oil & Gas Inputs (2.3) Field Operations Roundwood Processing Non-energy (9.7) Firewood (4.2) Annual Harvest (40) Residues & Roots (28) Forest Residues (15) Roots (14) Temporary Storage (29) Industry (3.1) Biogenic CO 2 (39) Net C Stock Change* (6.2) GHG (2.3) * From Canada s Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Calculations. National Inventory Report (2017)

12 1 o Production (103) Agricultural C Flows (Mt C/yr) Imported (3.3) Exported (11) Oil & Gas Inputs (6) On Farm: Plant On Farm: Animal Food/Fuel Processing (1.4) Non-energy (0.3) Food Eaten (5.7) Biofuels (1.3) Pasture & Crop Production (51) Residues & Roots (49) Temporary Storage (62) Biogenic CO 2 (59) Net C Stock Change* (3.0) GHG (15) * From Canada s Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Calculations. National Inventory Report (2017)

13 200 Mt C All Anthropogenic C Flows in Canada (2013) Fuel & Electricity Only

14 200 Mt C 200 Mt C Fuel & Electricity Only All Anthropogenic C Flows in Canada (2013) Food, Fibre, Fuel, & Electricity 42% more 1 o carbon flow Sun CO 2

15 Primary Anthropogenic Carbon Flows in Canada (2013) Energy (Fuel + Electricity) Systems (375 Mt C/yr) Imports Imports Forest Harvest (72 Mt C/yr) +14% Agricultural Production (106 Mt C/yr) Imports +28% Biomass Coal Roundwood & potential to increase Crop Yield & potential to increase NG Oil Forest Residue Stover Roots Roots Source Source Source

16 Energy (Fuel + Electricity) Systems (375 Mt C/yr) Losses: 17% Losses: 80% Products: 83% Products: 17% Primary Anthropogenic Carbon Flows in Canada (2013) Forest Harvest (72 Mt C/yr) Agricultural Production (106 Mt C/yr) Imports Biomass Coal NG Oil Source Export Non-energy Transport Buildings Industry Residual Combusted to CO 2 Destiny Imports Roundwood Forest Residue Roots Source Export Wood Products Heat & Power Net C Stock (8.6%) Residual (delayed CO 2 release) Combusted to CO 2 Destiny Losses: 43% Products: 48% Imports Crop Yield Stover Roots Source Export Food+Fuel Residual (delayed CO 2 release) Respired to CO 2 Destiny Net C Stock (2.8%)

17 Biological Solutions

18 Anthropogenic Energy and Carbon Flows in Canada: Rethinking Climate Change Solutions Thank You Kunbi B. Adetona & David B. Layzell