The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios

Transcription

1 The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios Prepared for: Hampton Roads Transit 509 East 18th Street, Norfolk, VA Prepared by: Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 155 Federal Street, Suite 600, Boston, MA June 23, 2016

2 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Potential Impacts of Enhanced Transit Investment Transit Investment Concepts Economic Impacts of Scenarios Conclusion... 7 The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 1

3 CHAPTER 1: POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ENHANCED TRANSIT INVESTMENT The June, 2016 report: The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit describes the economic impact of markets served by transit in the Hampton Roads region, as well as the strategic significance of transit for several issues critical to the region s development. The economic impact of today s transit markets and the efficiency of transit for serving those markets may be significantly enhanced in future years with strategic investment in new and improved transit services. The current report explores the potential magnitude of impacts that may occur associated with envisioned transit improvement concepts including: Extension of light rail to Virginia Beach Town Center Extension of light rail to Naval Station Norfolk Extension of light rail to Virginia Beach Waterfront Provision of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service in the Peninsula area It should be noted that with the exception of the extension of light rail to Virginia Beach Town Center, these concepts are still under development. Consequently, the economic estimates are based on sketchlevel assumptions based on the performance of comparable services and not on an explicit modeling of these services. Furthermore, the impacts estimated here are for the purposes of policy level consideration of the potential these concepts have for economic impact, and not offered as detailed economic impact studies of specific design alternatives. Impacts estimated reflect the regional impact of the modal efficiency of ridership under current market conditions, with subsequent modeling needed to further ascertain the ancillary effects of significantly changed land use patterns or business recruitment efforts that may accompany the alternatives. Full technical documentation of all sources and methods as well as response to comments arising in technical reviews can be found in the document: The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Technical Appendices dated June 23, TRANSIT INVESTMENT CONCEPTS The improvement scenarios explore four different hypothetical improvements geared towards improving transit efficiency, reducing the cost of travel, and increasing the overall quality of transportation in the region. The first two scenarios considered are improvement scenarios which as documented in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) of the Virginia Beach Transit Extension Study, and are geared towards increasing East-West mobility by adding a light rail extension of the Tide service. The third scenario explores the possibility of adding a high-capacity transit extension system for the city of Norfolk in order to increase reliability and connect as many points within the city of Norfolk not just the naval station. The fourth scenario represents the enhancement and expansion of local bus and high capacity transit networks to reduce user wait time by increasing service frequency, improve travel time, and expand hours of operation. The primary drivers of impact in each of these scenarios is the reduction of user drive (or wait) achieved by taking users from cars or local busses and putting them into faster higher capacity transit vehicles. The modeling of alternative improvement scenarios sought to look at four different hypothetical improvements geared towards improving transit efficiency, reducing user burden, and increasing level. The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 2

4 The first two scenarios considered were improvement scenarios which were discussed in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement of the Virginia Beach Transit Extension Study, and were geared towards increasing East-West mobility by adding a light rail extension of the Tide. The third modeled scenario looked at the possibility of adding a high-capacity transit extension system within the city of Norfolk in order to increase reliability and connect as many points within the city of Norfolk not just the naval station 1. The fourth modeled system was trying represents the enhancement and expansion of local bus and high capacity transit networks to reduce user wait time by increasing service frequency, improve travel time, and expand hours of operation. The primary drivers of impact in each of these modeled projects is to reduce user drive time by taking users off the road and putting them into faster high capacity transit vehicles. Scenario 1: Newtown Road to Town Center LRT Extension The first scenario involves an alternative alignment from the Tide Station at Newtown Road extending east along the former NSRR ROW to a new station in the vicinity of the Town Center of Virginia Beach. This corridor is approximately 3 miles long, and includes the purchase of 4 additional light rail vehicles, and 12 feeder buses to service the expanded light rail service area. Figure 1: Scenario 1 Scenario 2: Newtown Road to Oceanfront LRT Extension (via Laskin) The second scenario involves an Alternative alignment from The Tide light rail station at Newtown Road extending east along the former NSRR ROW and then through the Hilltop SGA on Laskin Road to a new station in the Oceanfront Resort Area via Birdneck Road and 19 th Street. This stretch of improvement is approximately 13.5 miles long, and call for additional purchases of 10 additional light rail vehicles, and 11 feeder buses to support the expanded light rail service. 1 Gohrt.com/nsntes/ The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 3

5 Figure 2: Scenario 2 Scenario 3: Norfolk Station Improvements The third scenario considers improving transit connectivity in and around the City of Norfolk, and examined the third option from the Second Tier analysis of options put forth in the Naval Station Norfolk Transit Extension Study which would extend light rail service around the Western Alignment and Eastern B Alignments (shown below). This project would connect the Ghent neighborhood, ODU, and NSN along Hampton Boulevard on the west side of Norfolk and would travel along Military Highway and W. Little Creek Road on the east side of Norfolk before linking with the Western Alignment at a station near the Joint Forces Staff College on Hampton Boulevard 2. Figure 3: Scenario 3 2 Naval Station Norfolk Transit Extension Study, pg 72, (Option 3) The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 4

6 Scenario 4: Peninsula BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) This scenario focused on increasing regional mobility through the enhancement and investment in local bus and high capacity transit services on the Peninsula. Figure 4 below is taken from preliminary work done as part of the Connect Hampton Roads initiative and illustrates broad corridors in which future Bus Rapid Transit service could be developed, situated in the cities of Hampton and Newport News. Figure 4: Potential High Capacity Transit (BRT) Corridors Connect Hampton Roads. 1.2 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SCENARIOS The economic impacts of each of the three scenarios is estimated based on the dollars of transportation savings to the region expected to be realized by reduced wait times, travel times, vehicle mileage and related travel costs in addition to the economic stimulus of capital and operating outlays associated with each service. The dollar values of these savings are translated into expected transactions (business output or sales) which businesses can be expected to realize in the long term based on (1) the transit-dependent industry mix of the region, (2) the observed rate at which industries absorb transportation costs, savings or sales of capital or operating resources and (3) the degree to which each benefiting industry is able to achieve enhanced output by investing transportation savings. All three of these elements are derived from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis-Based input-output tables provided by the Implan Group. Business output estimates are representative of regional 27-year cumulative business sales, with valueadded estimates reflecting the net Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gain associated with this output (after cost of goods sold). The average annual employment impact is reported for the expected change in The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 5

7 employment level in the final year of the analysis period (year 27). Because the estimated utilization of the envisioned services is based only on general concepts, many of which are still under development, upper and lower bounds are presented to show the potential range of impacts. The impacts of the scenarios are summarized in Table 1 and Figure 5 Below. Table 1: Economic Impact of Transit Improvement Projects Economic Impact (Cumulative 27 years of Avg Annual % of GDP Impact Scenarios GDP Impact Business Output Employment Capital Expenditure Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Scenario 1: LRT Town Center , , % 71% Scenario 2: LRT Oceanfront (Laskin Road) 1, , , , % 86% Scenario 3: LRT - Naval Station Norfolk (Scen 3) 1, , , , % 91% Scenario 4: BRT - Peninsula 1, , , , % 95% Figure 5: Economic Impact of Transit Improvement Projects Scenario 1: Newtown Road to Town Center LRT Extension The Newtown to Town Center LRT extension represents the impact closest to current conditions and existing planning assumptions. It has the most limited impact due largely to its relatively short length (only 3 miles long compared to 13 Miles for Scenario 2: LRT Oceanfront (Laskin Road) and the high concentration of destinations associated with Scenario 3 (LRT Naval Station Norfolk). Consequently, among the scenarios, LRT to town center is expected to have more modest ridership than the other scenarios, and less trip length of auto or passenger bus savings. Nevertheless, this scenario is estimated to potentially generate up to $1.2 Billion in sales from regional businesses, $465 Million in gross domestic product and 135 permanent jobs. Because of its relatively short distance, it is likely that up to 29% of these impacts will result not from the capital outlays of the project, but actually from the long-term transportation efficiencies created. The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 6

8 Scenario 2: Newtown Road to Oceanfront LRT Extension (via Laskin) The Oceanfront (Laskin Road) LRT extension represents a significant incremental impact in comparison to the LRT only to Town Center. This is due largely to its length nearly three times as far as the Town Center scenario, as well as the high existing transit volumes to the waterfront. This scenario is estimated to potentially generate up to $3.1 Billion in sales from regional businesses, $1.2 Billion in gross domestic product and 327 permanent jobs. Up to 14% of these impacts may result not from the capital outlays of the project, but actually from the long-term transportation efficiencies created. Scenario 3: LRT Naval Station Norfolk The Naval Station Norfolk LRT extension represents the highest potential impact in comparison other alternatives. This is due to the number of destinations served, and the potential geographic extent of the service, hence the potential ridership level. This scenario is estimated to potentially generate up to $4.6 Billion in sales from regional businesses, $1.9 Billion in gross domestic product and 466 permanent jobs. Up to 9% of these impacts may result not from the capital outlays of the project, but actually from the long-term transportation efficiencies created. Scenario 4: Peninsula BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) BRT service to the Peninsula represents a significant potential for economic impact, due largely to the size of the potential transit market on the Peninsula and the possibility of significant modal capture due to BRT s performance characteristics for the cost. It is likely the actual impacts of this scenario could vary considerably based on route characteristics and development patterns on the peninsula. This scenario is estimated to potentially generate up to $3.5 Billion in sales from regional businesses, $1.4 Billion in gross domestic product and 344 permanent jobs. Up to 5% of these impacts may result not from the capital outlays of the project, but actually from the long-term transportation efficiencies created. 1.3 CONCLUSION All four of the potential improvement scenarios represent significant opportunities to increase the Hampton Roads GDP and create jobs. While having the lowest impact, the light rail service to Town Center is likely to be the most efficient scenario as shown by the highest share of its overall impact attributable to long-term efficiency gains (as opposed to government outlays). This may be somewhat attributable to the fact that the town center scenario has been vetted and developed through the DEIS process, hence represents an optimal alternative, whereas the other scenarios are still in the planning stages. The impact results particularly suggest that further planning and analysis is warranted for light rail service to Naval Station Norfolk. In addition to these findings, it is likely that more efficient land use and spatial development patterns could both enhance ridership and reduce auto-travel costs (due to shorter trip lengths associated with transit oriented development) in ways not envisioned by currently available data. Further study is clearly warranted in this area as well as in the area of potential business attraction from outside the region as both dynamics are likely to yield actual future impacts for each of the scenarios above and beyond those shown in this sketch-level analysis. The Economic and Societal Impact of Hampton Roads Transit: Investment Scenarios 7