BRUNEI LNG SENDIRIAN BERHAD

Transcription

1 BRUNEI LNG SENDIRIAN BERHAD 22 MWp LUMUT CAPTIVE SOLAR PV POWER PROJECT Draft Report BNERI RE/02

2 Company Brunei National Energy Research Institute Science and Technology Research Building UBD Tungku Link BE 1410 Brunei Darussalam Author Dr Romeo Pacudan Chief Researcher Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page ii

3 Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 2 PROJECT SITE Site Location and PV Plant Area Requirement Infrastructure Others 11 3 CLIMATE DATA AND MODELLING TOOLS Solar Irradiation Modelling Software 13 4 ENERGY YIELD ASSESSMENT Plant Components Modelling of Plant and Yield Calculation Shading Analysis Modelling of Losses Degradation and Availability Final Energy Yield Estimation Uncertainty Analysis 18 5 PROJECT COSTS AND BENEFITS Levelized Costs Project Benefits Reduced Electricity Bills Natural Gas Savings Reduced Carbon Emissions Project Costs vs Benefits 27 6 ANNEX Meteorological Data for BLNG Lumut Long term annual yield Project Benefits Product Specifications TSM 250 P05A SMA Sunny Central 500 HE PVSYST calculation 33 Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page iii

4 List of Tables Table 1-1. Solar PV plant land requirements and site location options 1 Table 1-2: Key results 22,000 kwp BLNG solar PV project in Lumut 3 Table 2-1. Solar PV plant land requirements 6 Table 2-2. Project site location options 6 Table 3-1. METEONORM S Irradiation Data on Horizontal and Inclined Plane (BLNG Lumut Site) 12 Table 4-1. Input parameters for 25 MWp 14 Table 4-2. Losses considered in plant yield analysis 15 Table 4-3. Other losses considered in the analysis 17 Table 4-4. Key results 22,000 kwp BLNG solar PV project in Lumut 18 Table 4-5. Uncertainties for Solar PV Plant 19 Table 4-6. POE for the average annual and specific yield for 22,000 kwp BLNG Lumut (20 years) 21 Table 5-1. Financial Parameters 22 List of Figures Figure 1-1. Probability of Exceedance 4 Figure 1-2. Levelized cost of electricity 4 Figure 1-3. Project costs and benefits 5 Figure ,000 kwp BLNG Solar PV Park location in Lumut 7 Figure 2-2. Site horizon 1 8 Figure 2-3. Site horizon 2 8 Figure 2-4. Site horizon 3 9 Figure 2-5. Site horizon 4 9 Figure 2-6. Site Access 10 Figure 2-7. Site location of BLNG steam turbine complex 10 Figure 3-1. Pattern of GHI distribution in BLNG Lumut Site 13 Figure 4-1. Loss diagram (excluding module degradation and plant availability) 16 Figure 4-2. Average energy yield (20 years) 20 Figure 5-1. Levelized cost of electricity 23 Figure 5-2. Discount rate sensitivity 23 Figure 5-3. Savings from reduced electricity bill 24 Figure 5-4. Natural gas savings 25 Figure 5-5. Monetary value of natural gas savings 25 Figure 5-6. Carbon dioxide emissions reduction 26 Figure 5-7. Project costs and benefits 27 Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page iv

5 List of Abbreviations IAM MPP NOCT POE PR PV RMS PVGIS STC YF Incidence Angle Magnifier Maximum Power Point Normal Operating Cell Temperature Probability of Exceedance Performance Ratio Photovoltaic Root Mean Square PV Geographic Information System Standard Technical Condition Yield Factor Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page v

6 1 Executive Summary This study is being carried out as part of the support BNERI is extending to all stakeholders who are interested to invest and contribute to the deployment of renewable energy technologies in Brunei Darussalam. BNERI is at present supporting the Energy Department at the Prime Minister s Office in establishing an energy policy and regulatory framework to achieve the long-term target set by the Energy White Paper to generate 10% of the total power supply from renewable energy in Currently, a feed-in tariff policy is being considered for distributed renewable power generation while a reverse auction policy for utility scale renewable power production. As a background of this study, Shell P&T had carried out a scoping study on potential integration of solar PV power plant in BLNG s power supply system. Based on certain technical criteria, the Shell team recommended that a 22,000 kwp solar PV facility could be easily integrated into the existing power supply without causing technical and operational issues. BLNG aims to develop the project as captive power plant but would be interested later to connect to the grid if the economics of doing so would be favourable. The main objective of this study is to carry out a preliminary resource potential assessment as well as carry out yield analysis of the 22,000 kwp solar PV power plant. The study assessed the land area suitability, energy yield, levelized cost of electricity production and other project benefits that could be generated by the project. Land Area Requirement and Preliminary Site Assessment This study estimated that the land area requirement for the 22,000 kwp solar PV power plant using polycrystalline silicon would amount to around 20 hectares. From the identified alternative sites, Location A (the area on the western side of the BLNG complex) appeared to be the most suitable site for the project. Size, topographical conditions, access, availability of support infrastructures indicate technical suitability of Location A for solar PV plant conversion. Further analysis should however be carried out and mitigation measures should be elaborated related to possible shading, grid integration impacts, soil subsidence, flooding and other site issues. Table 1-1. Solar PV plant land requirements and site location options PV Technology Polycrystalline silicon modules Location Location A: West Side Location B: Parking lot Commercial Module Efficiency (%)* Module Area for 22 MW capacity (in hectares)** Land use (m2/kw)* Land use for 22 MW capacity (in hectares) Site Location Options Area Structure Recommendation (estimate) More than 20 Ground mounted Most suitable site for hectares the proposed project Around 2 hectares Roof-mounted Available land area is not sufficient. Roofing structure for the parking will Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page 1

7 Location C: Southeast Side (parking) Sources: *ETSAP and IRENA, 2013; ** this study. increase the project cost. Around 6 hectares Roof-mounted Available land area is not sufficient. Roofing structure for the parking will increase the project cost. Figure ,000 kwp BLNG Solar PV Park location in Lumut Power Plant Performance Key performance indicators analysed in the study are the energy yield, yield factor and performance ratio. The study used the solar irradiation datasets from Meteonorm, a global database for solar irradiation based on ground measurements and supplemented by satellite data for locations where ground measurements are not available. In simulating the performance indicators, the study used PVSYST program a powerful software for PV systems analysis used in the solar PV industry. During the first year of operation, the project would generate a total of 30,796 MWh of electricity with yield factor of 1400 kwh/kwp. Over the period of 20 years, the average yearly production would be 28,039 MWh and a yield factor of 1275 kwh/kwp/year. Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page 2

8 Table 1-2: Key results 22,000 kwp BLNG solar PV project in Lumut Output Unit Total polycrystalline Peak power [kwp] 22,000 Irradiation on horizontal plane [kwh/m²] Irradiation on inclined plane [kwh/m²] Plant availability % 98 First Year Performance Energy Yield (after inverter) [kwh/year] 30,796,088 Overall YF [kwh/kwp/year] 1400 Overall PR [%] 80.7 Average Performance (20 years) Energy yield per year (average 20 years) [kwh/year] 28,038,770 Total yield for 20 years [kwh] 560,775,405 Overall YF [kwh/kwp] 1275 Overall PR [%] 73.5 Uncertainty Analysis The study also carried out an uncertainly analysis by estimating the probability of exceedance (POE) with the expected annual yield representing the value P50 having the probability of reaching a higher or lower annual energy production. The sources of uncertainty were summarized and the uncertainly value of ±6.52% was used in the analysis. For P75 (probability of exceedance of 75%), the average annual yield amounts to 26,806 MWh and for P90, the average annual yield is 25,696 MWh. Uncertainty analysis is one of the requirements of banks when assessing financial viability of a project. Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page 3

9 Figure 1-2. Probability of Exceedance Levelized Cost The study used the turnkey price quotations from engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies for a utility scale solar PV project in Brunei Darussalam in determining the levelized cost of electricity. The turnkey costs, excluding the cost of the land and land development costs, ranges from as low as USD 1.81 per kwp (USD million for 22 MWp) to as high as USD per kwp (USD million). Assuming a debt to equity ratio of 70:30, cost of debt at 7%, and return on equity of 15%, the levelized cost could go as high as USD cents 28.3 per kwh to as low as USD cents 13.5 per kwh. The most likely case would be between USD cents per kwh. The levelized cost represents the tariff to be required by the project in order to become financially viable. Figure 1-3. Levelized cost of electricity Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page 4

10 Project Benefits Various benefits could be derived from a grid connected solar PV project. The study quantified 3 main benefits: electricity bill reduction, natural gas savings and carbon dioxide emissions reduction. For 20 years operation, electricity bill savings would amount to USD million, cumulative gas savings would reach 6.73 million MMBTU or a total amount of million using a constant FOB price of USD 16 per MMBTU, and total carbon dioxide emissions reduction would reach thousand tonnes. In terms of project costs and benefits, the study shows that the project benefits, mainly from gas savings and electricity bill reductions, would be higher than the levelized production cost of electricity. The levelized cost amounts to USD cents per kwh while the benefits amount to USD cents 23.2 per kwh (USD cents per kwh for natural gas savings and USD cents 4.0 per kwh for bill reductions) levelized cost (US cents/kwh) benefits (US cents/kwh) Figure 1-4. Project costs and benefits Conclusion The study demonstrates the technical and economic viability of BLNG s 22,000 kwp solar PV project. The technical analysis shows that the performance indicators of the project are at par with those in other countries in the region that successfully developed grid connected solar PV projects. The specific yield is around 1400 kwh/kwp/year while the performance ratios are above 80% for the single year and above 70% for a 20 year average. On the financial side, BLNG s generation cost would amount to USD cents per kwh. The electricity bill savings alone would not be sufficient to offset this cost. The natural gas savings would not benefit directly the PV power plant investor, but to the economy in general. Being the main company responsible for LNG exports, the reduction of internal gas consumption would be translated into increase in exports. In whatever form, BLNG to some extent may capture some of these gas savings benefits. Draft 22 MW BLNG LUMUT 22Oct2014 page 5