Modeling Status Update Review of Data and Documents

Transcription

1 SUSTAINABLE, JUST & PRODUCTIVE WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEPAL UNDER CURRENT & FUTURE CONDITIONS (DIGO JAL BIKAS DJB) Modeling Status Update Review of Data and Documents Tuesday, 1 ST August, 2017 Emily Pakhtigian Duke University (emily.pakhtigian@duke.edu)

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3 Data Sources: Groundwater and Inflows Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy for Irrigation in the Terai (1994) Deep Tubewell Database SWAT Modeling 3

4 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows Basins Considered: Karnali-Mohana Mahakali Biophysical mapping Land use/cover Soil Topography Hydro-climatic conditions Hydrological modelling (SWAT) Karnali-Mohana (49,889 km 2 ; 6.9% area in China) Mahakali (17,371 km 2 ; 68% area in India) Water-infrastructures Hydropower projects (150 nos; >0.5 MW) Irrigation Projects (57; > 100 ha NCA) 4

5 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows Topography: masl Soil: 21 types (SOTER) LULC: 9 generic types Rainfall variation Temperature variation 111 sub-basins; 9 Q- stations for calibration Example of Karnali-Mohana Basin 5

6 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows SN Data type Unit Resolution Source 1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) m Spatial: 30m grids Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 (GDEM V2) (2011) 2 Land use/cover (LULC) 3 Soil (map and properties) - Spatial: 300m grids for ESA- LCCI (2016); 30m grids for ICIMOD (2010) - Spatial: 1:1million scale map ~ 10km (accessed on Mar 27, 2013) European Space Agency - Climate Change Initiative (ESA-LCCI) (2016) data for DJB area. ICIMOD (2010) data for the territory within Nepal. Soil and Terrain Database Program (SOTER) soil maps for China, Indo-Gangetic plain, and Nepal (accessed on March 27, 2013 and December 15, 2016) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW) (2007) data for the western part of Mahakali basin within Indian territory (accessed on Mar 27, 2013) 4 Discharge m 3 /s Spatial: Station-wise Department of Hydrology (DHM), Nepal Temporal: Daily 5 Meteorological Multiple Spatial: Station-wise DHM, Nepal parameters Temporal: Daily India Meteorological Department (IMD), India 6 Gridded [mm] and Spatial: 0.25 o for IMD IMD, India precipitation and temperature [ o C] Precipitation; 1.0 o for IMD Temperature; 0.25 o for TRMM Temporal: Daily National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42v7 (accessed on Jan 31, 2017) 7 Current and future hydrological - Spatial: Project-wise Department of Electricity Development Issued Licenses website (accessed on Mar 1, 2017) infrastructures Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development Report (2014) Master Plan Study For Water Resources Development Of The Upper Karnali River And Mahakali River Basins Report (1993) Department of Irrigation (DOI) Irrigation and Water Resource Management Project (IWRMP) website (2 Mar, 2017) Personal corres. with DOI IWRMP official (8 Feb, 2017) Development of Database for Irrigation Development in Nepal Report (2014) 6

7 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows SWAT model set-up for water availability assessment 111 sub-basins 36 precipitation stations 22 Temperature & Humidity stations 5 stations for sunshine hours 7 stations for wind speed 24 hydrological stations (9 selected) Model calibration: improving Example of Karnali-Mohana Basin 7

8 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows Q280 Chisapani, Karnali Daily > Cal: ; Val: Calibration Validation R NSE PSR PBIAS

9 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows Q280 Chisapani, Karnali Daily > Cal: ; Val: Calibration Validation R NSE PSR PBIAS Daily > Cal: ; Val: Calibration Validation R NSE PSR PBIAS Water Balance Analysis Evapotranspiration (ET): 34.5% Percolation: 10.4% Baseflow: 10.3% of total flow in river FUTURE WORK Improve outlet Check & improve performance at other 9 8 stations (key tributaries of Karnali)

10 Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows Impact of Water Infrastructures Hydropower Projects? Irrigation Projects? IMPACT OF Management Practices (POLICIES)? Impact of Climate Change Rainfall Change? Temperature Change? Inflow at SELECTED points as input for HE model? 10

11 Data Sources: Energy Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993) Nepal Hydropower Database (2009) JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014) Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports Hydropower Project Reports for a limited number of projects Feasibility studies Expression of intent documents Environmental impact studies GIS Hydrology Tools 11

12 Data Sources: Agriculture and Irrigation Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990) National Irrigation Database (2009) Various crop production and pricing reports Cost, Production, and Price Spread of Cereal Crops in Nepal Average Production Cost and Price Margin of Pulse, Oilseed, Spice, and Commercial Crops Average Cost of Production and Gross Profit of Fruit Farming in Nepal Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports Irrigation Project Reports for a limited number of projects Completion Reports and Project Documents Project Visits Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project FAO CropWat Tools 12

13 Data Sources: Municipal National Water Plan (2005) Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework for Water Tariff in South Asia Nepal (2013) Central Bureau of Statistics Statistical Yearbook Water User Master Plan Reports HELVETAS, RVWRMP 13

14 WUMP VDC Locations 14

15 Data Sources: Environmental Basin-Wide Survey Sample: 3600 Ecosystem services valuation Trade-off: environmental conservation and expanded development Reliance on natural resources Development priorities in the basin Ecological Flows IWMI ecological flows calculator Focus of other DJB work 15

16 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Water Groundwater recharge, depth, seepage Groundwater depth Aquifer storage River flows Reservoir and river evaporation Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy for Irrigation in the Terai (1994), SWAT Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy for Irrigation in the Terai (1994) SWAT SWAT 16

17 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Energy Reservoir volumes, surface areas, water levels Production costs Production capacity Energy loss Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), Regional Hydro-power Resources: Status of Development and Barriers Nepal (2002), Nepal Hydropower Database (2009), JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Hydropower Project Reports Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Hydropower Project Reports Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), Regional Hydro-power Resources: Status of Development and Barriers Nepal (2002) JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports Production efficiency Energy price Energy demands Head loss Expansion potential and costs Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports, Hydropower Project Reports Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports, NEA Load Focus Report (2015) GIS Hydrology Tools 17

18 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Command areas Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990), Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), National Irrigation Database (2009), Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project Agriculture Irrigation efficiency Rainfed and irrigated area Completion Reports, Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project National Water Plan (2005), Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports Pumping capacity Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990) Irrigation costs National Irrigation Database (2009), National Water Plan (2005) Crop price Production cost Crop yield Completion Reports, Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports, Crop production and pricing reports Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports, Crop production and pricing reports Completion Reports, Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project, Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports 18

19 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Crop coefficients, water stress FAO CropWat Tools Agriculture Effective rainfall, potential evapotranspiration Expansion potential and costs Distribution of ground and surface water Disaggregated production costs FAO CropWat Tools 19

20 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Municipal Water and energy costs National Water Plan (2005), Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework for Water Tariff in South Asia Nepal (2013) Water use efficiency National Water Plan (2005) Water and energy requirements Distribution loss Water treatment and reuse Efficiency improvements and costs Return flows Evaporation loss National Water Plan (2005), Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework for Water Tariff in South Asia Nepal (2013), Central Bureau of Statistics Statistical Yearbook, Water User Maser Plan Reports Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports 20

21 Modeling Status Update Module Parameter Data Source Ecosystem valuation Environment Natural resource reliance Environmental Flows DJB Basin-Wide Survey DJB Basin-Wide Survey DBJ work, IWMI Environmental Flows Calculator 21

22 Modeling Goals Our primary goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of trade-offs in the future development Karnali and Mahakali River Basins This should speak to issues of interest and concern among basin stakeholders and decision makers The goal of this workshop is to start that discussion To achieve that, we are working on a model that includes energy, agriculture, industrial/municipal, and ecosystem modules Requires compilation of a comprehensive database Use the model to obtain systematic understanding of different water use priorities and how they affect resource access and allocation Quantify costs and benefits of different options Provide analysis that aligns with priorities and interests of stakeholders and decision makers in the basins 22