Land Use Planning and GHG Emissions of Urban Transport. Elizabeth Deakin Director, UC Transportation Center Professor of City and Regional Planning

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1 Land Use Planning and GHG Emissions of Urban Transport Elizabeth Deakin Director, UC Transportation Center Professor of City and Regional Planning

2 Emerging Patterns of Growth Global Economy: international flows of goods, information, and people Metropolitan Focus: most people in urban areas Multi-nucleation: many centers Up and out: infill and renewal AND regional outward spread Mega-regions: as edges and economies increasingly overlap

3 Uneven Development Europe, Japan: slow/no growth; shrinking cities? CA: 38 M; 2030 = 50 M? what will be the quality of life? Much of the world: mega-growth; how to reduce poverty, improve equity, have a good environment?

4 Sustainable Transportation Economic Sustainability Cost effective / profitable Affordable to users Each mode pays for its social and environmental costs Social Sustainability Provides access for all Respects / responds to differences in needs, preferences Supports healthy communities Environmental Sustainability Leaves no burdens for future generations Protects/enhances human health Reduces greenhouse gas emissions climate change Respects other species existence rights

5 The Dilemma in Developing Countries Rapid growth in personal vehicle use Hyper-congestion with low levels of motor vehicle ownership Burgeoning fuel use, severe pollution and greenhouse emissions High crash rates Building roads that serve cars but worsen ped, bike, transit experience Worsening condition of urban buses, rail Caught in congestion, slow, unreliable Poor quality of service, maintenance, little comfort, convenience Growing reliance on informal transit pros and cons Weak policies towards customer satisfaction Exceptions Curitiba, Bangalore, Hong Kong Dangerous conditions for cyclists, pedestrians Still the major means of travel for most BUT Walking, cycling pushed out/unsafe as vehicles claim the streets

6 What doesn t work: Multimodal Congestion

7 The Dilemma in the US Rapid expansion of metro land area even in regions with stagnant population Densities too low for transit to work well (but many still want rail) Congestion on many corridors, including suburban ones Not much enthusiasm for new highway building, despite congestion

8 What Doesn t Work: Transit in Sprawl Orchard Park Station, San Jose

9 Reducing GHG Will need technology, policy, planning, demonstration projects with successes Technology: new fuels, vehicles, operations Policy: finance, pricing, land use, multimodal transport Planning: integrated transportation-land useenvironmental plans with implementation strategies Demonstration projects: sustainable community projects with mixed uses, transit and pedestrian orientation at major destinations/nodes, mix of uses, high livability reuse, infill, new areas

10 Land Use Transportation Strategies Building standards (materials, coatings, HVAC, roofs, coatings, power systems, appliances) and site planning (location, orientation, water collection/reuse, landscaping, recycling) for energy efficiency Higher densities, multi-modal street space allocation, pedestrian-friendly urban form and design, mix of uses: facilitate walk, bike, transit Parking management (location, pricing) Traffic calming traffic management tied to land use relationships

11 Additional Barriers for Many LDCs and Elsewhere also Pollution, environmental degradation Major relocation and displacement with urban restructuring Limited infrastructure, road network being built hyper-blocks and hyper-roads AND everywhere: Issues of race/religion/class affect land uses, activity patterns, transportation use

12 Planning Challenges Professionals narrowly trained; energy standards, transportation, land development, environmental quality dealt with separately Limited data availability and data quality Weak implementation and enforcement of planning decisions sustainable development will depend on changes in policies and practices, but we can still make progress now!

13 China Example: Major Transportation Challenges Sparse street network Fast growth in autos Little parking management Overcrowded buses Pedestrians forced onto sky bridges or long walk to corner (superblocks) Bike lanes removed or merged with sidewalks Boom in E-bikes - poorly understood mode Need an integrated multimodal strategy

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15 Land Development Issues Superblock size - internal access, limited connectivity Upgrade buildings, infrastructure- or tear down and start over? Maintaining a mix of uses, services Provision of sidewalks, bike lanes, parking Sustainability of new buildings siting, design, materials, building systems; maintenance Eco-city: neighborhood sustainability options

16 NETWORK TOPOLOGY 1 SQ. KM., SAN FRANCISCO, CA AND JINAN, SHANDONG PROV., CHINA Urban design options: TOD with smaller but still protected blocks, more streets, more street types

17 Choices In many countries, auto ownership will grow fast as incomes rise; some countries going from e.g personal vehicles/1000 to /1000 over the next years fastest and highest rates in cities, where incomes are highest Will the auto use pattern follow that of the EU, or that of the US?

18 Auto-dependent transit?? While this station in Los Angeles has high rises near it, the elevated ROW and park and ride lots are unattractive and repel pedestrians almost no one walks to this station and those who do, suffer indignities and discomfort. Transit investment is not enough.

19 Not convenient offices only This development clusters a high rise office buildings around a suburban rail station, with bus connections and wide sidewalks, but the street level is bleak, with no pedestrian oriented uses. This development approach fails to fully take advantage of location and synergy, and misses out on place making. Density around transit is not enough.

20 Land Use-Transportation Planning Challenges I drive to work, because I just have to go down the elevator to my parking space and back up at the other end to my office, and the car is air conditioned. It is too far to walk and too hot. If I bike I arrive soaking wet. (China) Transit is not reliable enough, too crowded, too slow, and not for people like me. (Mexico) If walking is unpleasant and difficult, biking is unsafe, transit is crowded and hot, and the family car is downstairs in the garage, what mode will the traveler choose? If auto ownership grows and urban environments accommodate it, how will the city work for non-drivers? If urban environments do NOT accommodate or manage the auto, can they remain be successful? If they restrict motor vehicles, can they succeed? Can a more desirable choice set be developed Paris rather than LA??

21 Examples: San Francisco Transbay Terminal and Redevelopment Area Proposal

22 Precedent: The Embarcadero Freeway and Ferry Building, San Francisco: Urban Blight Caused by Freeway Construction in the City

23 Ferry Bldg. San Francisco After Freeway Removal and Street Redesign

24 Ferry Bldg. Revitalization Before and after - now a vibrant market and office building as well as transit hub

25 Transbay Terminal Proposal Renovation of old bus terminal Tied to High Speed Rail and new BRT and LRT investments At edge of area that is revitalizing Cost is huge: strategy is to integrate LU and T to both generate additional revenues and create urban pedestrian and transit oriented development

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27 Conceptual Drawing of Transbay Terminal (Bus/Rail/LRT/BRT - San Francisco) - $1 B (2001)

28 Publicly Owned Land Proposed for Development

29 Concept Plan Joint Development 3,300 housing units 750,000 sq. ft. of office 450,000 sq. ft. of hotel 60,000 sq. ft. of retail to Pay for Terminal

30 Residential Streets Around Terminal Proposed Design

31 Residential Ground Level

32 Folsom Blvd. sketch

33 Design Approaches for TOD Reinforce housing and economic development sites and opportunities in locating stations Identify major trip generators, current and planned, and link them with transit Preserve buildings, sites of architectural merit, cultural importance Plan for a mix of incomes, household sizes, ages Provide open space and landscaping Design multimodal streets

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35 Development Ideas: Ground floor retail and apartments Number of Townhouses (1,800 ft 2 each) 0 Number of Apartments (1,200 ft 2 each) 103 Total Units 103 Total Square Footage of Townhouses and Apartments 123,600 Internal Building Circulation (ft 2 ) 28,500 Retail (ft 2 ) 27,500 Office (ft 2 ) 0 Floor Area Ratio (FAR) 2 Maximum Building Height (ft) 65 Units/Acre 50 Parking needed: 103 for housing + 55 for retail (1 per housing 158 unit, 1 per 500 ft 2 of retail) Parking Spaces Provided (120 in podium + 40 on street) 160 Block Surface (Acres) 2.1

36 Multi Block Simulation Example of open space in higher density neighborhood

37 The new High Speed Rail Station Plaza Bike station

38 Station drop off area (South of station) Bus Terminal (North of station)

39 Limitations of Land Use Strategies for GHG reduction Need to have considerable development to make a dent in density or substantially increase transit market size Urban development, auto ownership and auto use are connected in complex ways that are not well understood e.g. is the difference between auto use in the US and the EU due to historical development patterns, incomes, transport LOS,.?

40 Value Market- rate residential districts with high quality public spaces command an average premium of $20,000-40,000/residential unit (1999 $); higher value holds for market rate units even when housing in area is designed for a mix of incomes and ages can cross-subsidize affordable units Commercial land values 10-20% higher in TOD areas can pay for amenities Walk, bike, transit share of trips expected to be over 60% and auto ownership <1 vehicle /hh low traffic impact Greenhouse gases / capita 40-60% lower than average Easier to implement many energy saving building and site designs in higher density areas