Market Update PPT Stockholm

Transcription

1 Market Update PPT Stockholm Market Update Macro Economy Fiber markets Tissue Packaging Graphic Paper Summary 1

2 Economic outlook Market Update Macro Economy Fiber markets Tissue Packaging Graphic Paper Summary 2

3 Market pulp World-20 shipments up 3.5% in 2011 thanks to China Source: PPPC, PPI Europee N.B. NBSK price at low level, first entry of the month Market Pulp/ /mj High producer inventories have put pressure on prices; stocks down in December enough for price turnaround? Days of supply 34 (38) Updated: Sources: PPPC (inventories), RISI (price). 3

4 Pulp prices in China close to bottom, huge imports expected to reach China in January Imports updated until: Dec-11 Prices updated until Nov and Dec-11 Source: GTIS (imports), FOEX (price Europe), RISI PPI Asia (price China) Recovered paper, Europe: Price erosion halted in January Prices updated until: Dec-11 4

5 Recovered Paper, China OCC price edging up in December Updated until: dec 11 (imports) & jan 12 (price) Source: GTIS (imports), RISI World Recovered Paper Monitor (price) Market Update Summary Macro Economy Fiber Markets Tissue Packaging Graphic Paper Summary 5

6 Tissue competitive mature markets; rapid Chinese expansion Stable underlying demand for Consumer Tissue, but competitive retail markets puts pressure on all suppliers of FMCG Price increases in 2h 2011 Demand for Commercial Tissue in line with general economic recovery Huge expansion of Chinese capacity 29 PM decided more planned, not yet confirmed Market Update Summary Macro Economy Fiber Markets Tissue Packaging Graphic Paper Summary 6

7 Corrugated demand slowing down after weak cyclical recovery; prices peaked in Q3 2009: 6.3% 2010: + 4.9% 2011: % 2009: 7.7% 2010: + 3.5% 2011: % Corrugated prices updated until: Nov-11 Corrugated Volumes updated until: Nov-11 US Volumes updated until: Nov-11 US Prices updated until: Nov-11 Sources: SCA (Europe), RISI Paper Packaging Monitor European containerboard prices down Volumes updated until: Dec-11 Prices updated until: Jan-12 US Volumes updated until: Nov-11 US Prices updated until: Nov-11 Sources: SCA (Europe), RISI Paper Packaging Monitor 7

8 Market Update Summary Macro Economy Fiber Markets Tissue Personal Care Packaging Graphic Paper Summary Advertising markets have picked up, but not much in print Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen Quarterly magazine ad page index, USA 20% 12% 4% 4% 12% 20% 28% Source: IFO 36% Source: RISI 8

9 Print share of advertising declining Western Europe US$ billions 60 Adspend in printed media and on the Internet Media share of adspend Print Internet Source: ZenithOptimedia, Advertising Expenditure Forecasts October 2011 Stagnant magazine advertising Internet adspend growing fast US$ billions 30 Internet Magazine Adspend in Magazine and on the Internet, Western Europe Media share of adspend Source: ZenithOptimedia, Advertising Expenditure Forecasts October

10 New actors, new business models, new media, new advertising channels The Tablet a game changer? Yes! 10

11 Daily newspaper circulation Germany Million copies Annual Change in Printed : -2,7% Printed Sold Source: IVW Media/ /mj Consumer magazine circulation Germany Source: IVW Media/ /mj 11

12 Newsprint Global demand , -1.8% p.a % 33% 37% 16% 5% 5% 28% % 14% 27% ,9 mt 32,3 mt North America China Western Europe Latin America Newsprint Demand and Capacity Changes North America Western Europe Capacity Demand Eastern Europe China Other Asia Latin America Others Total Million tonnes Source: Pöyry 12

13 Printing and Writing Paper Demand and Capacity Changes North America Western Europe Capacity Demand Eastern Europe Asia Others Total Million tonnes Source: Pöyry Newsprint: Shipments from Western European producers down 3% in 2011 Updated: Sources: Cepiprint (shipments), RISI (price) 13

14 LWC Paper: Weak demand in Western Europe partly compensated by strong exports; total shipments down 1% in 2011 Updated: Sources: Cepiprint (shipments), RISI (price) Long term profitability trending down % Weighted Average EBIT margin for top 20 Paper and Paperboard producers in Western Europe EBIT margin 15% 10% 5% % Source: JP Smart Terminal 14

15 European Consolidation Top 3 producers, Capacity share Paper & Board Newsprint Mechanical P&W Uncoated WF Cartonboard Containerboard Tissue +8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Outlook 2012 Slower global growth - Europe near recession Weak underlying P&B demand in Mature Markets; better in D&E; China will be key Pulp and Recovered Paper Prices seem to have bottomed after 6-8 months decline, next move up Tissue Fair demand in competitive markets Packaging Slowing demand and pressure on prices Graphic Paper Trend shift in media consumption; lower demand I all mature markets Poor Industry profitability Consolidation and closures 15

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