Variety Trends in U.S. Apple Retail Advertising

Transcription

1 Variety Trends in U.S. Apple Retail Advertising Note: Introduction. Small businesses can rarely afford analyses of market trends. However, one free, public source of information is the National Retail Report Specialty Crops published online by the USDA s Agricultural Marketing Service. While this provides information on trends in advertising for many produce items, it also provides indirect evidence of trends in market demand for those items. The weekly data is derived from a survey of over 400 retailers, comprising over 29,200 individual stores, with online weekly advertised features. Belrose, Inc. has used these weekly data to compile data for annual seasons, September thru August of each year from to Figure 1. Average Weekly Number of Conventional and Organic Ads for Apples, (Thousand Ads) Number of Ads (1,000s) Conventional Organic Organic % Comments: 1. The average weekly number of conventional ads (blue line) has risen slowly over time. Part of this may have been the result of increases in survey coverage. 2. The average weekly number of ads for organic apples (orange line) doubled between and , and has remained close to the higher level since. 3. The organic share of total weekly ads also rose dramatically in the season, and has remained at that higher level since.

2 Figure 2. Share of Average Weekly Conventional Ads, by Major Apple Variety, (Percent of Total) 30.0 Variety Share of Conventional Ads (%) Fuji Gala Granny Red Del Honeycrisp All Other Comments: 1. The share of weekly ads for Gala, Fuji and Granny Smith were fairly stable over the eight seasons reported. 2. The share for Honeycrisp apples surged upwards between and , and again between and , and was the highest of any variety in The shares for both Red Delicious and for all Other Varieties (Braeburn, Golden Delicious, McIntosh and Cripps Pink), dropped sharply in the last four seasons reported.

3 Figure 3. Share of Average Weekly Organic Ads, by Major Variety, (Percent of Total) Variety Share of Organic Ads Fuji Gala Granny Honeycrisp Red Del All Other 1. Two varieties, Gala and Fuji, have consistently accounted for over half of all ads for organic apples. 2. Granny Smith share of organic ads has been steady at less than 10 percent. 3. Honeycrisp share of organic ads has risen from 1.2% to 18.3% during the eight seasons. 4. The share of organic ads accounted by for Red Delicious and all Other Varieties have both declined by more than one half during the eight seasons.

4 Figure 4. Average Weekly Advertised Prices of Organic and Conventional Apples, ($ per lb) Organic v. Conventional Prices Organic Conventional Org/Conv 1. Both average advertised prices of organic apples (blue line) and conventional apples (orange line) rose over the eight seasons reported. 2. Organic prices rose more rapidly than conventional prices between and , but have remained flat since Organic advertised prices have exceeded $2 per lb since , while conventional advertised prices have topped $1.50 per lb for the last three seasons. 4. The price premium for organic over conventional advertised prices (dotted red line) rose between and , when it peaked at 50 percent, but it has slipped modestly since.

5 Figure 5. Average Weekly Advertised Prices of Selected Apple Varieties, Organic and Conventional Apples Combined, ($ per lb) Advertised prices, $ per lb Honeycrisp Cripps Pink Gala Granny Smith Red Delicious 1. Over the eight seasons reported, by far the highest average advertised prices have been for Honeycrisp (blue line). 2. Advertised prices for Cripps Pink (brown line) have been consistently in second place, 70 to 80 cents below Honeycrisp prices, and slightly above other major varieties. 3. Among the five most heavily advertised varieties, advertised prices for Red Delicious have consistently been lowest. Other low-priced varieties have been Golden Delicious and McIntosh. 4. Advertised prices of Gala (grey line) and Granny Smith (green line) have been similar over time, and similar to those of Fuji (not shown).

6 Figure 6. Weighted Average Weekly Expenditure on Honeycrisp and All Other Ads, (Percent of Total) Share of Weekly Ad Expenditure 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Honeycrisp All Other 1. With its higher advertised price and rising share of all apple ads, the Honeycrisp variety has been accounting for a rapidly rising share of apple advertising. 2. Presumably, retailers are being successful in moving more consumers towards buying of the more expensive Honeycrisp variety. 3. If one assumes that consumers apple budgets are relatively fixed, this implies that expenditure on competing apple varieties must be falling.