EYEFORTRAVEL'S EUROPEAN SUMMIT 2016

Transcription

1 EYEFORTRAVEL'S EUROPEAN SUMMIT 2016

2 #tdseurope

3 WHAT SHOULD WE BE WORRIED ABOUT?

4 Forecast downgrades: IMF 2016 global growth: 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% Standard & Poor s Eurozone - 1.8% to 1.5% US Federal Reserve 2.4% to 2.2% ECONOMIC RISKS Global growth

5 China reported the slowest quarterly growth for 7 years 6.7% Commodities producers did not expect this slowdown ECONOMIC RISKS China and the commodities crash

6 ECONOMIC RISKS China and the commodities crash Sources: Kitco and Bloomberg

7 Profit warnings running at highest since the recession in the UK in Q Global company bond default rate is running at its highest since 2009 (Standard & Poor s) Analyst earnings predictions have been cut by the most since the first quarter of 2009 (FT) ECONOMIC RISKS Warning signs

8 ECONOMIC RISKS Productivity Crisis Source: OECD 86 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US

9 Refugee crisis Greek debt Internal migration caused by weak southern countries Brexit ECONOMIC RISKS European unity

10 OPPORTUNITIES What should we be optimistic about?

11 Europe is the world s largest tourism market, taking in nearly half of global arrivals Leading growth in absolute and relative terms' in 2015 (WTO) US consumers rate Europe as the destination they are most likely to visit in the next 12 months (EyeforTravel, IXI Services, GfK MRI) Outside Asia, Europe was the most popular destination for Chinese travellers in 2015 (GfK) EUROPE REMAINS A STRONG BRAND

12 Mobile flight-related queries on Google.com up 33% YoY to Q Mobile hotel queries up 49% YoY to Q MOBILE AND DATA

13 Jan 03, 2014 Feb 03, 2014 Mar 03, 2014 Apr 03, 2014 May 03, 2014 Jun 03, 2014 Jul 03, 2014 Aug 03, 2014 Sep 03, 2014 Oct 03, 2014 Nov 03, 2014 Dec 03, 2014 Jan 03, 2015 Feb 03, 2015 Mar 03, 2015 Apr 03, 2015 May 03, 2015 Jun 03, 2015 Jul 03, 2015 Aug 03, 2015 Sep 03, 2015 Oct 03, 2015 Nov 03, 2015 Dec 03, 2015 Jan 03, 2016 Feb 03, 2016 Mar 03, 2016 Apr 03, 2016 WTI oil spot price per barrel CHEAP OIL Correlation of Source: EIA Axis Title Weekly Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) Weekly U.S. Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Gallon)

14 EXPERIENTIAL SPENDING

15 15.79% EXPERIENTIAL SPENDING 10.94% US goods and tourism spending YoY % increases 7.58% 5.90% 6.33% 3.10% 2.73% 3.90% 3.40% 3.80% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 1.30% 1.49% Increase in value of goods imported since 2011 Increase in spending on durable goods since 2011 Increase in value of tourism spending since 2011

16 18.0% 16.0% INCREASE IN SPENDING % EXPERIENTIAL 14.0% 12.0% 11.9% 12.6% 13.2% SPENDING 10.0% 8.0% 7.9% European Tourism Spending 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Eurostat

17 Iceland - +71% EXPERIENTIAL SPENDING Highest growth Source: Eurostat

18 A handful of online players have enormous power Facebook Amazon Priceline, TripAdvisor and Expedia Google RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Online consolidation

19 RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE A path to purchase 1953 flight choices 457 hotel choices

20 20 flight sites with 100 flights each 20 hotel sites with 100 hotel choices each Equals RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE A path to purchase 4 million individual paths to purchase

21 Can my own-brand channel be effective? Will customers ever be loyal and should I invest in loyalty programmes? As the cost of marketing increases what can I do? RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Can travel suppliers compete?

22 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% On which of the following have you made a booking in the last year? 36% 31% 23% RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Can travel suppliers compete? Booking 5% 0% An airline website A hotel booking website An online travel agency

23 16.7% 50.0% 33.3% RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Can travel suppliers compete? Loyalty A very positive effect A positive effect Has no effect on demand

24 Percentage of segment belonging to a hotel rewards programme 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Hotel rewards programme membership RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Can travel suppliers compete? Loyalty 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Incidence of foreign travel

25 Percentage of segment belonging to a frequent flyer programme 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Frequent flyer programme membership RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? A FRACTURED DISTRIBUTION SCENE Can travel suppliers compete? Loyalty 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Incidence of foreign travel

26 Uber is now partners with: Hilton HHonors Starwood Preferred Guest IHG Rewards PARTNERSHIPS

27 Start-up & Innovation Sponsor

28 Social Content Sponsor

29 Gold Sponsor

30 Sponsors

31 Sponsors

32 Sponsors

33 Sponsors

34 Exhibitors