Agriculture & Agri Food. A Bright Future. Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist La Coop fédérée

Transcription

1 Agriculture & Agri Food A Bright Future Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist La Coop fédérée

2 Drop in food prices really? FAO Food Price Index Source: FAO

3 Megatrends World population growth Urbanization Energy: Tectonic change Volatility Speed of execution

4 Source: US Census Bureau World Population

5 More and more people in the cities Urban Billion people Rural Source: UN

6 Cities in developing countries set the pace Cities Developed countries Billion people Cities Developing Countries Rural areas Developed countries Rural areas Developing countries Source: UN

7 Shanghai 1990

8 Shanghai 2010

9 Soybean: World imports China Source: USDA China ROW

10 Growth in corn demand since 2005 China Source: FAS, compilation La Coop fédérée Others China Brazil Ethanol US

11 Signs of a slowdown? China aging quickly China s GDP Croissance annuelle moyenne du PIB (%) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: UN Source: World Bank, estimates CME Economics

12 Worth of some agrifood giants (USD Billion) West ADM 26,007 26,495 Asia/Africa Wilmar 8,137 59,128 Bunge 12,904 13,347 Noble 4,150 15,108 Viterra 856 4,907 Olam 4,862 10,865 Source: Bloomberg

13 New geopilitical balance U.S U.S China Japan China U.S Germany Japan India UK Germany Japan France France Brazil China UK Germany Italy Brazil France Canada Italy Russia Brazil India UK Mexico Canada Indonesia Sources: The Super-Cycle Report (Standard Chartered), World Bank, Compilation La Coop fédérée

14 Food waste Stop magic thinking! Source: FAS, compilation La Coop fédérée

15 Source: FAO Increase of arable land

16 Yields barely follow the trend World population growth compared to yield increase for major crops (1970 = 100) Sources: UN, USDA, Compilation La Coop fédérée La Coop fédérée Corporate Summary

17 Arable land under pressure Farmland per capita Source: OCDE-FAO 17

18

19 Africa: Main target for buyers La Coop fédérée Corporate Summary

20

21 A smaller world 6 % 3 % Exports growth World s GDP. s growth Sources: World Bank, WTO

22 WTO: Doha Round agonizing «Is multilateralism in crisis?»

23 Paradox of the multilateral trading system W Doha Round agonizing Free trade is king! O T

24 An important partner 74% Source: Industry Canada

25 Diversify our export markets Source: Banque du Canada

26 Canada not enough exposed to emerging economies Exports to emerging and developing countries, 2011 Share of total exports Canada United Kingdom Germany U.S. Japan Australia Source: Bank of Canada

27 Quite clear intentions FTAs in force Jordan Colombia Peru Canada-European Free Trade association Costa Rica Chile Israel NAFTA Honduras Panama CETA (concluded) Ongoing FTA negotiations South Korea Central America Four India Japan Caribbean Community Morocco MERCOSUR Dominican Republic Singapore Transpacific Partnership Turkey Ukraine Thailand Israel (modernization) Source: Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada

28 Increase of the import quotas Decrease of the domestic production Decrease of production quotas Decrease of farm s profitability How about growth?

29 The tariff barrier Import price Domestic price Tariff rate Transport Exchange rate International price La Coop fédérée Corporate Summary

30 Butter Evolution of butter prices (domestic, international & import price) Domestic price Price mported butter U.S. price (USD) NZ price (USD) Sources: AMS, Banque du Canada, our calculations La Coop fédérée Corporate Summary

31 Chicken Evolution of deboned chicken prices (domestic, international & import price) Domestic price Imp Debonned chicken price (USD) U.S. price ($US) Sources: Express Market inc, Banque du Canada, our calculations La Coop fédérée Corporate Summary

32 Meat consumption per capita in Canada Chicken Beef Pork Source: Statistics Canada

33 Myth or reality? «For decades, one s been crying wolf regarding the end of supply management; it s still in place. We can therefore sleep tight for quite some time.» FALSE TRUE 34

34 Not such an intense love-in from Rest of Canada for supply management English press, summer 2012

35

36 Sow stalls: We know where we re heading Source: Smithfield

37 2014 International year of Family Farming