Environmental Problems of Central Asia and their Economic, Social and Security Impacts

Transcription

1 Environmental Problems of Central Asia and their Economic, Social and Security Impacts Edited by Jiaguo Qi Center for Global Change and Earth Observations and the Department of Geography Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan, U.S.A. and Kyle T. Evered Department of Geography Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan, U.S.A. 4y Springer Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division

2 CONTENTS Foreword Preface v ix I. REGIONAL ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT TOOLS 1. An Overview of Environmental Issues in Central Asia 3 Jiaguo Qi and Rashid Kulmatov 1. Introduction 4 2. Environmental issues of Central Asia 5 3. Human activities are the major drivers of environmental change 7 4. Climate change contributes to environmental problems 9 5. Socioeconomic consequences are unprecedented Research needs Modern Problems in Using, Protecting, and Managing Water and Land Resources of the Aral Sea Basin 15 Rashid Kulmatov 1. Introduction Land resources of the Aral Sea basin Water resources of the Aral Sea basin Agriculture of Uzbekistan Quality of water of the Amu Darya Sources of pollution of the Syr Darya Quality of water of the Syr Darya Return waters Underground waters, Uzbekistan Research of the law of distribution of heavy metals in river waters Water resources management of the Aral Sea basin International cooperation in the area of environmental protection Summary Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Study and Monitor the Aral Sea and Adjacent Zone 31 Philip Micklin 1. Introduction The Aral Sea problem 32

3 xii CONTENTS 2.1. Location, nature, and hydrology of the Aral Sea Environmental and human problems of Aral Sea desiccation Satellite remote sensing of the Aral Early satellite photography of the Aral The modern era: land resource and environmental satellites The future Monitoring Arid Land Surfaces with Earth Observation Techniques: Examples of Intense and Extensive Land Uses 59 Richard Escadafal and A. Ghani Chehbouni 1. Background The need for monitoring arid lands The current challenges The potential of earth observation techniques Monitoring long term trends Geometric correction Radiometric intercalibration Land surface characteristics detected in the images Detecting long term land surface changes Quasi-real time crop growth monitoring Conclusion: the future of arid lands observation with satellites Missing information Prospective applications Biodiversity of the Aral Sea and Its Importance to the Possible Ways of Rehabilitating and Conserving Its Remnant Water Bodies 73 NickAladin, Philip Micklin, and Igor Plotnikov 1. The Aral Sea and its biodiversity Conservation and rehabilitation of Aral Sea and its ecosystems Way 1. Conservation and rehabilitation of Small Aral and its ecosystems Way 2. Conservation and rehabilitation of the Large Aral and its ecosystems Way 3. Conservation and rehabilitation of delta and deltaic water bodies of Syr Darya Way 4. Conservation and rehabilitation of delta and deltaic water bodies of Amu Darya < Some evidences of Medieval desiccation of the Aral Sea Alternative 2nd phase of the small Aral rehabilitation project 96

4 CONTENTS 6. Water Scarcity in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin: Contributions of Agricultural Irrigation and a Changing Climate 99 Jerker Jarsjo, Shilpa M. Asokan, Yoshihiro Shibuo, and Georgia Destouni 1. Introduction and objectives Method and considered scenarios Temperature - overall and seasonal trends Precipitation - overall and seasonal trends Causes of the water scarcity Use of Biosensors to Detect and Monitor Chemicals Commonly Used in Agriculture and Terrorist Weapons with the Goal of Preventing Dangerous Environmental Consequences 109 Nickolaj F. Starodub 1. Introduction Results and discussion Total toxicity " Method using Daphnia as the sensitive object Method using bioluminescent bacteria as the sensitive object Gene toxicity Biosensor determination of groups of toxic elements Biosensors for determination of individual toxins Analysis by SPR and TIRE based optical immune biosensors Analysis using calorimetric immune biosensors Detection of formaldehyde Control of cyanides Determination of volatile hydrocarbonates Determination of phenols Revealing surfactants Conclusion Monitoring Rangeland Ecosystems with Remote Sensing: An Example from Kazakhstan 135 Lyubov Lebed, Jiaguo Qi, and Philip Heilman 1. Introduction Bioecological characteristics of desert vegetation in Kazakhstan Monitoring and modeling pasture ecosystems Parameterizing the pasture yield model 141 xiii

5 xiv CONTENTS 5. Current research and preliminary results Future research 145 II. REGIONAL CLIMATE, CONSEQUENCES AND ADAPTATIONS 1. Possible Changes in Agriculture under the Influence of Climate Change in Kazakhstan 149 Lyubov Lebed 1. Introduction Influence of climate change on grain production Influence of climate change on pasture vegetation Estimation of pasture vegetation under climate change Assessment of possible risks of pasture preservation Assessment of possible adaptation measures Conclusion Constructing Model-based Climate Change Scenarios for Southeastern Kazakhstan and the Possibilities for Impact Assessment 163 Irina B. Yesserkepova 1. Introduction Climate change tendencies in Kazakhstan in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries Regional climate change scenarios for South-Eastern Kazakhstan Climate Change and Possible Changes in the Water Regime of Crops in Northern Kazakhstan 173 Zh. K. Akhmadiyeva 1. Introduction The modern assessment of crop water regime in Northern Kazakhstan The assessment of possible changes in the crop water regime under global warming impact Conclusion Estimating Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change through Cloud Activation for Northern Kazakhstan 183 Alexey Cherednichenko 1. Introduction Objectives 184

6 CONTENTS 3. Exploration methods Conclusion Dynamics and Structure of Total Ozone Content over the Republic of Kazakhstan in Conditions of Global Warming 191 Alexey Cherednichenko and Vera Rakova 1. Introduction TOC distribution over the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan Abnormity occurrence September 20, 2006 in Semipalatinsk Abnormally low TOC in May of Conclusion The Challenge of Water Provision for Pasture Lands: A Restrictive Factor for Livestock Breeding Development in Kazakhstan 201 Almaz T. Bazarbay ev and Margulya K. Bayekenova 1. Introduction Pasture water supply prior to Modern conditions of the pasture water supply Perspectives on pasture water supply Ecology and Modern Socio-Economic Conditions in Kazakhstan 209 Margulya K. Bayekenova and Almaz T. Bazar bay ev 1. Introduction Atmospheric pollution Degradation of farmland Waste from production consumption Sewage and loss of water 213 III. WATER RESOURCES AND EFFECTIVE USES 1. Introducing Water Pricing among Agricultural Producers in Khorezm, Uzbekistan: An Economic Analysis 217 Nodir Djanibekov 1. Background Water use Water pricing Research description Model Selection of water pricing method 229 xv

7 xvi CONTENTS 6. Model adaptation Model results Conclusion Water Scarcity Impacts on Northern Cyprus and Alternative Mitigation Strategies 241 Elkiran Gozen and Ay sen Turkman Introduction The water scarcity problem 2.1. Water scarcity in the world 2.2. Water scarcity on Cyprus Impacts of water scarcity on Northern Cyprus 3.1. Domestic water qual ity 3.2. Agricultural cultivation product quality and economic revenue Alternative strategies 4.1. Transporting water by tanker from Turkey to Northern Cyprus 4.2. Transporting water by pipeline from Turkey to Northern Cyprus 4.3. Seawater desalination 4.4. Irrigation development 4.5. Wastewater reuse Results and discussion Economic Evaluation of Farmers' Alternatives During Irrigation Water Deficit 251 Andrey A. Zaikin and Walter R. Butcher 1. Introduction Farm characteristics Characteristics of farms and farmers Crop water requirements Farm cost and return Alternative activities Cotton activities Wheat activities Analytical model Optimization model Scenarios Results Scenario 1. Base case Scenario 2. Reduced water supply 260

8 CONTENTS 5.3. Scenario 3. Alternative irrigation techniques Scenario 4. Alternative techniques with reduced water supply Conclusion and recommendations An Evaluation of Irrigation Water Re-use in Water Drainage and Collection Networks in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan 267 Madina I. Khalmirzaeva, A. Salohiddinov, and O. R. Ramazanov 1. Introduction Mitigating the effects of water shortages Conclusion The Role of the Amu Darya Dams and Reservoirs in Future Water Supply in the Amu Darya Basin 277 Oliver Olsson, Melanie Bauer, Malika Ikramova, andjochen Froebrich 1. Introduction Hydrography of the Amu Darya basin Upstream dams Nurek dam - hydropower for Tajikistan Rogun dam - increasing the hydropower output Downstream dams Tuyamuyun Hydro Complex (THC) - irrigational water supply Potential of dams for improving future water supply Nurek Rogun Enhanced THC management Conclusions 289 IV. POLITICAL ECONOMY AND GOVERNANCE 1. Poppy Ecologies and Security in Eurasia: Lessons from Turkey's Past and Present 295 Kyle T. Evered 1. Introduction Poppy cultivation and opium in the Mediterranean and Eurasian regions prior to the 1970s Poppy eradication and reintroduction, the 1970s Political ecologies of poppy cultivation in Turkey today Poppies and insecurity: Afghanistan today Summary and conclusions * 308 xvii

9 xviii CONTENTS 2. Distributive Constraints on Environmental Policy in Central Asia 311 Timo Goeschl 1. Introduction Dimensions of distributive impacts Evidence of distributive impacts across socioeconomic groups Evidence on distributive patterns of benefits from environmental policies Evidence of distributive patterns of the costs of environmental policies The role of distributive effects Common-property resource systems Conflicts Enforcement activities Costs of conflict Summary Relevance to Central Asian countries Conclusions Governing of Environmental Problems and Impacts in Bulgarian Agriculture - Lessons for Central Asian Countries 327 Hrabrin Bachev 1. Introduction Modes and efficiency of environmental management in Bulgarian agriculture Institutional environment Private and market modes Public modes Environmental problems and risks Lessons from the Bulgarian transition Modernization of institutional and property rights Integral governance of sustainability Need for public intervention The necessity for direct public support Types of public and international assistance Framework for improvement of environmental management Conclusions Irrigation of the Amu Darya Banks and Its Role as a Potential Solution for the Poppy Problem 349 Tsuneo Tsukatani 1. Introduction Irrigated agriculture and development 350

10 CONTENTS 3. Principles of and a mechanism for subsurface irrigation Agriculture in North Afghanistan The framework of regional cooperation The need for interstate coordination Opium production and traffic routes Discussion Conclusion Using a Value Chain Approach for Economic and Environmental Impact Assessment of Cotton Production in Uzbekistan 361 Inna Rudenko, Ulrike Grote, and John Lamers 1. Introduction / Study site and methodology Description of the study region The methodological framework Findings Generic description of the CVC in Khorezm Direct actors of the CVC Scenario simulation in Khorezm Discussion and conclusions Strategic Environmental Assessment in the Republic of Belarus: Status, Problems and Perspectives 381 Viktoryia Misiuchenka and Ludmila Ivashechkina 1. Introduction Legislative framework and existing practice Problems concerning the application of SEA in Belarus Methodological recommendations for document development Recommendations for SEA implementation in Belarus Monitoring Urban Greenery for Sustainable Urban Management 389 Natalya G. Akinshina and Azamat A. Azizov 1. Introduction Materials and methods Results and discussion Linear growth Chlorophyll concentration Respiration and photosynthesis Dust accumulation on leaf surfaces Heavy metal content Conclusions 397 xix