Climate change impact assessment and agricultural land use decision making in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Transcription

1 Climate change impact assessment and agricultural land use decision making in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Nguyen Hieu Trung 1, Van Pham Dang Tri 1, Truong Chi Quang 1, Huynh Xuan Hiep 2, Alexis Drogoul 3 1 College of Environment and Natural Resources (CENRes), Can Tho University; Campus 2, 3/2 street, Ninh Kieu district, Can Tho city, Vietnam. nhtrung@ctu.edu.vn 2 College of Information and Tele Communication (CITC), Can Tho University. 3 IRD, UMI 209, UMMISCO, IRD France;

2 Contents The Mekong Delta s agriculture land use change driving factors. CC impact assessment Agricultural land use decision making the IRD-CTU research team: Decisionsupport Research for Environmental Applications and Models (DREAM)

3 Fast land use change in MRD Department of Land Resources, Can Tho University, 2013

4 West sea Agriculture land use change driving factors Long river from very high elevation (~4000m) to the sea level (0.5-1m) % of the precipitation concentrated into four months annual flood in rainy season. Tides: East sea is semi-diurnal (amplitude: m), and West Sea tide is diurnal (amplitude: m) annual saline intrusion in dry season. Autonomous adaptation (farming techniques, new short duration rice, new crop, aquaculture, integrated farming techniques) Plan adaptation (flood and salinity control system) Dry season Rainy season Saline intrusion 1998 (dry year)

5 Agriculture land use change driving factors Over exploitation of ground water (for urban, industry and rural) Saline intrusion in ground water and Land subsidence. (Source: Erban et al., 2014)

6 Agriculture land use change driving factors Cross boundary water competition Existing irrigation projects Planned irrigation projects Existing, under-construction and proposed hydro-power projects

7 Agriculture land use change driving factors Future climate change and sea level rise Sea level rise: East Sea: Average 4.7 mm/year ( ) Projected to 2050: + 30 cm; 2100: + 70 cm

8 Agriculture land use change driving factors Regional development Increase accessibility need: both physically (e.g. road) and non-physically (data, information, knowledge) Increase resource demands (both natural and socioeconomic) Complex land use and resource planning an interactive land use planning approach

9 Contents The Mekong Delta s agriculture land use change driving factors. CC impact assessment Agricultural land use decision making the IRD-CTU research team: Decisionsupport Research for Environmental Applications and Models (DREAM)

10 CC impact assessment Basin/regional scale: Flood modeling Saline intrusion modeling Sub-ecological scale: Flood zone modeling Coastal zone modeling Field scale: Crop modeling

11 Rainfall Runoff model SWAT Impact to saline intrusion Upstream boundary: flow at Kratie Socioeconomic scenarios Water demand Integrated Quantity and Quality Model (IQQM) Hydropower dev. Upstream scenarios Hydraulic model Water quality model (from Kratie, Mike 11) Agriculture dev. Mekong delta development scenarios Sea level rise scenarios Water management scenarios Saptial analsys - Land use - Inundation - Salinity intrusion Temporal analysis - Probability - max - min - Averahe Downstream boundary (SIWRR, 2012) Results - Changes of inundation area - Changes of saline inundation area Results - Changes of discharge - Change of salinity level

12 Impacts to saline intrusion (dry season) Scenario 1 - SLR 30 cm Scenario 2 (worse case) = Scenario 1 + upstream projects, dry year) Scenario 3 = Scenario 2 + structural intervention (larger river mouse sluice gates Source: Mekong Future project (Collaboration with CSIRO) Saline iso-line (4 g/l)

13 Impact to flood (rainy season) Longer flood duration (2000 vs 2050) Two groups of flooding: Upstream of Mekong Delta by Mekong river flow. Coastal of Mekong Delta by tide, especially the west coast (more than 4 months). (Van Pham Dang Tri, et.al. 2012)

14 Contents The Mekong Delta s agriculture land use change driving factors. CC impact assessment Agricultural land use decision making the IRD-CTU research team: Decisionsupport Research for Environmental Applications and Models (DREAM)

15 Agricultural land use decision making (Mekong future project, )

16 Soils, water (inundation, salinity) Agricultural land use decision making Decision support information (graphs, maps, tables, reports) Hydraulic models Suitability and yield/lmu LMU Biophysical Land Evaluation Available capital Available labor Data management tools Land use analysis tools (Optimization) Visualization tools Available land area LU allocation of scenario 1 LUTs cost/lmu Socio-economic analysis Require labor/lut/lmu Production price (Trung, et. al. 2014) Research theme 5. CLUES project Current land use

17 (Trung et. al., 2014)

18 Contents The Mekong Delta s agriculture land use driving factors. CC impact assessment Agricultural land use decision making the IRD-CTU research team: Decisionsupport Research for Environmental Applications and Models (DREAM)

19 the Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models (DREAM) research team To enhance the cooperation among relevant colleges (CENRes, CIT, CNS ) and IRD in applying modern information technology and mathematical solutions for sustainable development of the VMD. Tools for interactive LUP approach could be applied in the context of the VMD.

20 Activities of DREAM s LUP team Project: Adaptation to Climate Change: Land-use Innovative Models Applied to Environmental management (ACCLIMATE) Organization of training on ABM (GAMA) + GIS + Hydrological models. Insertion of the three Master modules in existing curricula in CTU Supervised PhD and MSc subjects from College of Information Technology and College of Environment and Natural Resources

21 Activities of DREAM s LUP team A multi-disciplinary research team on LUP in CTU. Good facilities for training and research. An ABM model (GAMA) on land use decision making. A server ready for WebGIS and DBMS. Join training and workshop with PEERS project. Join publications.

22 Soils, water (inundation, salinity) Sensor network Future development: Interactive and real-time land use management DSS Decision support information (graphs, maps, tables, reports) Hydraulic models Suitability and yield/lmu LMU Biophysical Land Evaluation Available capital Available labor Data management tools Land use analysis tools (Optimization and ABM) Visualization tools Participatory monitoring Available land area LU allocation of scenario 1 LUTs cost/lmu Current land use Socio-economic analysis Require labor/lut/lmu Production price Participatory planning precision farming

23 Contact: Nguyen Hieu Trung, Assoc. Prof. Dr.