Enhancing food production and sustainable food security

Transcription

1 Enhancing food production and sustainable food security Pramod Aggarwal and Bruce Campbell CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

2 Global availability of food has increased with time Cereal production, million tons Consumption, Kcal/capita/day

3 Number of hungry and malnourished still remains large

4 Challenges for future food security Increasing demand for food Increasing degradation of resources Increasing competition for resources Increasing climatic risks Increasing variability of global supplies, and prices

5 Enhancing food production and sustainable food security Key point 1 Technologies are available that can meet food requirement in short-term. Investments and innovations needed in input delivery and market linkage mechanisms, and upscaling.

6 There is a large untapped potential of currently available agricultural technologies Rice Wheat

7 Large yield gaps exist in most crops at present Yield gaps for (a) maize (b) rice (c) soybean, and (d) wheat Source: Licker et al., 2010

8 Research-Industry-Extension Partnerships to Bridge Yield Gaps Input delivery systems: seeds, fertilizer, chemicals: Partnerships with industry Real-time agro-advisories: Partnership with Met and irrigation depts Post-harvest primary processing and marketing hubs in rural areas for employment and income Successful partnerships, e.g. in India- Dairy cooperatives; seed production

9 Indian National Food Security Mission Aims to bridge yield gaps in short-term Better seeds Assured inputsnutrients, irrigation, machinery Farmers training Demos Incentives

10 Enhancing food production and sustainable food security Key point 2 Managing current climatic risks and adaptation to progressive climate change is crucial for poverty alleviation and for equitable development

11 Climatic risks are increasing globally

12 Climate change is likely to impact food security of the world Source: Fisher et al.

13 Impact of climate change on food prices Increase in food prices in 2050 due to climate change, % 10 0 Rice Maize Wheat Poultry Beef IFPRI, 2009

14 Role of Agriculture Ocean acidification Nitrogen cycle Safe operating space Climate change Phosphorous cycle Biodiversity loss Change in land use Global freshwater use Current status Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

15 Challenge : Reducing the agricultural footprint

16 Greater focus on climate risk management

17 Climate smart agricultural communities Develop, in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders, a climatesmart model for agricultural development that includes a range of innovative agricultural risk management strategies

18 Climate analogues Farmer networks Policy framework Farms of the future

19 Enhancing food production and sustainable food security Key point 3 Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and unless addressed can potentially do so in the future as well.

20 Policy innovations induced by droughts in India Drought Events Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes Green Revolution and FCI Employ Contingency ment Crop Generation Plan Programmes Watershed Approach Improved weather forecasts and their applications Scarcity relief Drought relief Drought management Water management Knowledge management Each round represent death of one million people Each round represent around fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA 20

21 Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still cause considerable loss Key reasons Widespread poverty Limited human capital Poor governance including limited stakeholder analysis, and dissemination of knowledge Poverty (2005) Population at $2/day or less Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50 Human capital literacy rate

22 Enhancing food production and sustainable food security Summary 1. Technologies are available that can meet food requirement in short-term. Investments and innovations needed in input delivery and market linkage mechanisms, and upscaling 2. Managing current climatic risks and adapting to progressive climate change is crucial for poverty alleviation and for equitable development 3. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today, and unless addressed, can potentially do so in the future as well.

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