Production systems for the future: efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Mario Herrero

Transcription

1 Sub Saharan Africa: livestock systems, demand and supply of livestock Production systems for the future: balancing products trade-offs and sources between of GHG food emissions production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Mario Herrero M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation 21 st September 2010 ILRI, Nairobi GRA-ILRI-CCAFS GHG emissions workshop Nairobi September 2012

2 Background Dynamic region with significant growth in the last decades Livestock sector changing rapidly (both the demand and the supply) Need to understand production systems to construct GHG inventories Need to understand sources of emissions These are first steps towards designing mitigation strategies

3 The demand for livestock products Drivers and trends

4 Population Growth GHI GAP Report

5 The livestock revolution : as people get richer they consume more meat People want to eat chicken, pork and milk! Sub-Saharan African countries FAO: SOFA2011 5

6 Urbanization 6

7 Meat consumption per capita stagnating in the last 25 years! FAO: SOFA2009 7

8 FAO: SOFA2009 Sub-Saharan Africa: 8% of calories coming from livestock products 8

9 The supply side: Livestock production Systems

10 Production of livestock products by region Production of livestock products doubled! FAO: SOFA

11 But livestock productivity stagnating meat productivity milk productivity Productivity (kg/tlu) Productivity (kg/tlu) Time Time East Asia South Asia Africa East Asia South Asia Africa Huge resource use implications!

12 Wide range of production systems

13 Livestock production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa - Robinson et al 2011 (FAO/ILRI)

14 Livestock production systems Mixed systems: High human population densities and better market access most dairy production in SSA >70% 50% of the beef 40% of the shoat meat production Growing fastest small herds Constraints: farm size, soil fertility, feed sourcing, land use trade-offs, manure use Rangeland systems Lower population densities Largest area (70% of agricultural area) Large herds 50% of beef production and 60% of shoat production Somewhat stagnating Constraints: degradation, conflict, low feed availability and quality, diseases, drought

15 Livestock production systems Herrero et al 2008

16 Integrated mixed crop-livestock systems 60% of livestock production in SSA Herrero et al, Science 2010

17 Feed/land use intensities: key driver for the efficiency of the livestock sector (Herrero et al. PNAS forthcoming) beef dairy Depend on land productivity, feed quality, animal species and others

18 Global milk production

19 The Livestock Revolution: Growth mainly in industrial systems 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Asia SSA WANA CSA grazing systems industrial systems mixed systems Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 19

20 rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates. Annual rates of change - beef production % CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total Increased consumption Increased incomes AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - milk production but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation. % CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Herrero et al 2009

21 rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates.(2) Annual rates of change - pork production 8 % Increased consumption Increased incomes 0-2 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total -4 AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - poultry production but increased pressure on grains increase in prices? % CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Herrero et al 2009

22 Most growth in production occuring due to increases in animal numbers.rather than increases in productivity Future resource pressures? Need for sustainable intensification? FAO: SOFA2011 SOFA

23 GHG emissions

24 LIVESTOCK = problem or opportunity? Share of livestock in global GHG emissions 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total GHG CO2 CH4 N2O Livestock Rest Steinfeld et al. (2006) Livestock in the developing world have a high mitigation potential Better feeds, breeds, management, incentives, policies and regulation 24

25 GHG emissions from livestock (FAO 2006 N 2 O Deforestation Enteric fermentation CH 4 CO 2 Production Chemical N. fertilisants fert. production N Energie On-farm fossile fuel ferme Déforestation Deforestation Sol OM cultivé release from ag. soils Désertification Pasture degradation pâturages Transformation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Fermentation Enteric fermentation ruminale Effluents, Manure storage stockage/traitement / processing Epandage N fertilization fertilisants N Production Legume production légumineuses Effluents, Manure storage stockage/traitement / processing Effluents, Manure spreading épandage/dépôt / dropping Effluents, Manu indirect emission emissions indirecte Prepared by Bonneau, 2008

26 SS Africa Greenhouse gas emissions 2004 (Long Shadow 2006) Less than 15% of global livestock emissions = approx 5% global GHG emissions Total emissions methane enteric methane enteric methane manure N2O manure Ruminants Monogastrics methane from manure N2O manure ruminants monogastrics ruminants monogastrics

27 Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large ineficiencies in the developing world an opportunity?

28 top 20 methane emitters (million kg) Africa - Shifts in methane production as systems evolve to 2030 important to evaluate mitigation strategies Ethiopia MRT Sudan LGA Sudan MRA Nigeria MRA Tanzania MRA Ethiopia MRA Kenya MRT South Africa LGA Madagascar LGA Somalia LGA Burkina Faso MRA Tanzania MRH Nigeria MRH South Africa LGT Kenya LGA Mali MRA Uganda MRH Zimbabwe MRA South Africa MRA Ethiopia LGA top 20 methane emitters (million kg) Herrrero et al 2008 Sudan MRA Nigeria MRA Sudan LGA Ethiopia MRT Ethiopia MRA Tanzania MRA Burkina Faso MRA Nigeria MRH Uganda MRH Mali MRA Swaziland LGA Madagascar LGA Botswana LGA Uganda MRA Madagascar MRA Kenya MRT Ethiopia MRH Mali LGA Ethiopia LGA Chad MRA

29 Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein Herrero et al (PNAS forthcoming)

30 What role for rangelands? Largest land use system Increasingly fragmented Potentially a large C sink PES: an important income diversification source Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Dealing with mobile pastoralists Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)

31 Conclusions Livestock sector in the region expected to continue to grow significantly Ruminants still driving production and consumption Currently most production is from mixed and pastoral systems Still main emissions coming from ruminants (ploughing, meat, milk) = methane Can we sustainably intensify these mixed systems? Can we sequester carbon in rangelands?

32 Thank you