Updates on Improved Poultry Data for Modeling the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Dr. Jim Glancey, Univ. of Delaware Ed Kee, Delaware Dept.

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1 Updates on Improved Poultry Data for Modeling the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Dr. Jim Glancey, Univ. of Delaware Ed Kee, Delaware Dept. of Agriculture

2 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Six-state, 64,000 sq. mile watershed 10,000 miles of shoreline Over 3,600 species of plants, fish and other animals Home to 17 million people EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Chesapeake Bay Model Determines TMDL goals and WIP

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4 Chesapeake Bay Program Poultry Litter Sub-Committee Membership Jim Glancey, chair UD Mark Dubin UM Emma Giese CBPO Mark Davis DDA Tom Basden WVU Bill Brown UD Glenn Carpenter USDA NRCS Frank Coale UM Jason Dalrymple WVDA Doug Goodlander PA DEP Matt Johnston CBPO Bobby Long VA DCR Jen Nelson USDA NRCS Jerry Ours WVDA Paul Patterson Penn State Jim Pease VT Royden Powell MDA Tim Sexton VA DCR Kelly Shenk EPA Trish Steinhilber UM Jeff Sweeney EPA Jennifer Timmons UM Jennifer Weld PSU Hank Zygumnt Keith Campbell

5 Our Interest How much N and P is being generated within the Bay watershed from the poultry industry? Pounds of N = (lbs N/lb litter) x (lbs litter/bird) x (#birds) (concentration) (generation) (population) Litter = bird excretion plus bedding material (saw dust)

6 Motivation EPA is using the 2003 ASAE Standard to estimate Nitrogen and Phosphorous generation from animal agriculture. 80 lbs N/ton and 80 lbs P2O5/ton -- REMEMBER THAT The Standard is based on data from the late 1980 s and early 1990 s. The Agriculture Workgroup (AgWG) of EPA Bay Program created the Poultry Litter Sub-Committee in Sub-Committee Charge: Collect data that better reflects modern (and historical) N and P concentrations in poultry litter. Develop N and P generation quantities, both modern and historic. Develop alternate methods to estimate poultry population numbers across the watershed and compare to current methods used in the model.

7 3 major sets of data State and species Litter Concentration Data N & P2O5 Litter Volume Data How much per bird Bird Population EPA reliance on census 5 years versus annual data from NASS and industry Broilers, Layers, Turkeys and Minor Species

8 DDA Lab Analysis of Poultry Manure 2005 through 2011 No. Total N Phosphate (P2O5) Total P lbs Year Samples % lbs/ton %P2O5 P2O5/ton % P lbs P/ton (total No. of samples) averages

9 P2O5 in litter (lbs per ton) Phosphorous Concentration Trend Delmarva Slope not equal to zero (Greater than 95% confidence) Year

10 Implications and Observations Genetics, feed technologies and improved growing environments have reduced waste produced from the poultry industry. Phosphorous Concentrations Trending lower over time (statistically significant reduction from 1996 to today on Delmarva) Nitrogen Concentrations No change on Delmarva Increasing in Virginia and West Virginia

11 Annual Production (x10^6) Current Method to Model Poultry Populations within the Watershed Based on the 5 year Ag Census data. Most recent census in For 2007, the population shown is the 2007 census number. Apply an escalation factor, f, to estimate subsequent years. f ~ 1% Delaware-Chickens Model EPA Model Year

12 Potential Data Sources for Population Estimates (Birds per year) Delaware Year Census NASS Placements* NASS Production 2012? 215,987,000 Not Yet 2011? 223,589, ,800, ? 243,035, ,000, ? 243,572, ,700, ? 245,505, ,900, ,098, ,973, ,800,000 * Includes an early mortality factor NASS = National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS has recommended using the Production data.

13 Annual # of Birds (x10^6) Delaware-Chickens Model 240 NASS Production 235 Corrected Census Year

14 Annual # of Birds (x10^6) Maryland-Chickens Model NASS Production 285 Corrected Census Year

15 Typical Data Set - Delaware Nutrient Content and Volume Generated - Chickens Parameter Value Time Range 2006 to 2011 No. of Data 3696 Avg. TN Concentration TN Range* Avg. TP Concentration TP Range* Moisture Content Moisture Content Range* Manure Generation 57.1 lbs/ton 55.4 to 60.3 lbs/ton 20.1 lbs/ton 17.9 to 21.3 lbs/ton 30.1 % w.b to 32.1 % w.b. 1.5 tons/1000 birds Comments All manure samples analyzed by the DDA laboratory. Bird sizes: 60% roasters, 40% broilers. Average bird weight = 7.1 lbs. Manure generation based on a total of 702 poultry house cleanouts or crustouts (Ray Ellis). Manure Generation Range 0.5 to 4.6 tons/1000 birds * Based on annual averages 15

16 Comparison Across the Watershed Chickens Wet Basis Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia Total N lbs/ ton Total P lbs/ton Manure lbs/1000 Generation birds 2,990 2,500 2,000 Moisture % Dry Basis Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia Total N lbs/ ton Total P lbs/ton Manure lbs/1000 Generation birds ,825 1,340 16

17 Comparison Across the Watershed Chickens Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia N Generation lbs/1000 birds P Generation lbs/1000 birds

18 Summary of Poultry Data Sets Across the Watershed Delmarva Chickens Data Sets: , , Virginia: Chickens, Turkeys Data Sets: , West Virginia Chickens, Layers, Pullets, Turkeys Data Sets: , , Overall 21 data sets summarizing over 8000 data points within the watershed. 18

19 Case Study: Sussex County, Delaware

20 Current Status Chesapeake Bay Program modelers are working with us to better understand and integrate the data. Five of six states have (or are) collected regional data N and P concentrations Delmarva analyzed manure generation amounts from 800 poultry houses. Modern production practices (bird sizes, flocks per year, etc. ) Current request from the modeling group Annual data rather than pre and post calibration time periods Production practice data

21 Summary CBP committee has summarized regional poultry litter nutrient and volume data. CBP committee recommendations are based on more than 8,000 data across the watershed. Differences exist between states/regions for both N and P concentrations as well as manure generation volumes. Needs: Verification of data and observed trends. Explaining observed trends in N and P concentrations and litter generation. PA is working on tracking N & P data 21

22 Take Home Message for my colleagues in other regions: 1. Ask thoughtful, sometimes hard questions about the data, the assumptions. 2. Put together a multi-disclipinary team of scientists with specific tasks and goals to evaluate existing science and develop better data. Questions? Comments? 22

23 Status of Poultry Data by Species and State

24 Draft Recommendations cont. PLS recommends to directly utilize annual average N and P concentration data with manure generation data where available (where not available, the existing model data analysis would remain). The new annual concentration data would sub-plant the current model data and analysis assumptions based on excreted values, and replace BMP reductions associated with feed additives (Phytase), and litter amendments. The new manure volume data per 1k birds would be applied to the USDA-NASS Agriculture Census projected livestock populations to sub-plant the current manure volume assumptions. 24

25 Draft Recommendations For the Next (v6.x) Model Develop new model data and analysis methods for representing poultry litter nutrient generation and volumes to calculate mass nutrients. Implement capacity in NEIEN for data reporting on annual average N and P concentrations by bird type by state/region. States responsible for collecting and reporting annual NEIEN data updates along with annual progress data. Update manure volume numbers as new data becomes available. 25

26 Broilers/Roasters. Litter Volume Generation Data (cont): West Virginia currently does not have a process for obtaining historic or current generation data. Data sources currently unknown for New York due to nonparticipation with the Poultry Litter Subcommittee. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan & bird size or average live weight has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- work directly with state agencies and private sources to collect historic and current generation data and/or develop relationship formulas between bird production weight and litter generation. NASS Recommendation- review bird slaughter reports to enhance available data on bird average life spans/grow-out periods, and average bird weights if currently insufficient to support potential use in litter generation formula.

27 Broilers/Roasters Litter Volume Generation Data: Limited data currently available for all states based on historic "book values". Delaware has obtained additional current generation data from a single manure broker and is reviewing a relationship formula between bird slaughter weight and litter generation. Additional historic data may be available from the industry. Maryland is developing additional current generation data from their Annual Implementation Reports (AIRs) under the nutrient management requirements. Pennsylvania currently does not have a plan for obtaining historic or current generation data. Virginia has obtained additional current generation data from nutrient management planning activities. Additional historic data may be available from private sources.

28 Litter Concentration Data: Broilers/Roasters Data currently available from state or state contracted laboratories for Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia. Data for Maryland's Eastern Shore can be replicated by Delaware laboratory data. Data not currently available for Pennsylvania due to the lack of a state contract with the PSU laboratory. Data sources currently unknown for New York due to nonparticipation with the Poultry Litter Subcommittee. CBP Recommendation- work directly with Pennsylvania state agencies and the industry to develop opportunities for collecting concentration data. NASS Recommendation- none

29 Bird Population Data: Broilers/Roasters Annual NASS state scale data is currently available for all states. Data on grow-out period or average lifespan has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- utilize current NASS Agricultural Census county scale data to inform distribution of annual NASS state scale data to a county scale. NASS Recommendation- determine if county scale population data, or large watershed scale population data can be collected and publically reported with state/industry assistance.

30 Litter Concentration Data: Layers None or limited data currently available from state or state contracted laboratories for Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia due to the lack of or limited layer operations. Data for Maryland's Eastern Shore can be replicated by Delaware laboratory data, however no layer operations have been identified for either state. Data not currently available for Pennsylvania due to the lack of a state contract with the PSU laboratory. Extensive layer operations have been identified in the state. Data sources currently unknown for New York due to nonparticipation with the Poultry Litter Subcommittee. CBP Recommendation- work directly with Pennsylvania state agencies and the industry to develop opportunities for collecting concentration data. NASS Recommendation- none

31 Layers Litter Volume Generation Data: Limited data currently available for all states based on historic "book values". No additional data is available at this time. Data sources currently unknown for New York. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan & bird size or average live weight has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- work directly with state agencies and private sources to develop opportunities for collecting historic and current generation data and/or develop relationship formulas between bird slaughter weight and litter generation. NASS Recommendation- review available data such as bird slaughter reports to determine opportunities to enhance available data on bird average life spans/grow-out periods, and average bird weights if currently insufficient to support potential use in litter generation formula.

32 Layers Bird Population Data: Annual NASS state scale data is not currently available for all states. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- if available, utilize current NASS Agricultural Census county scale data to inform distribution of annual NASS state scale data to a county scale. NASS Recommendation- determine if county scale population data, or large watershed scale population data can be collected and publically reported with state/industry assistance.

33 Litter Concentration Data: Turkeys Data currently available from state or state contracted laboratories for Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia when presence of turkey operations. Data for Maryland's Eastern Shore can be replicated by Delaware laboratory data, however no turkey operations have been identified for either state. Data not currently available for Pennsylvania due to the lack of a state contract with the PSU laboratory. Turkey operations have been identified in the state. Data sources currently unknown for New York due to nonparticipation with the Poultry Litter Subcommittee. CBP Recommendation- work directly with Pennsylvania state agencies and the industry to develop opportunities for collecting concentration data. NASS Recommendation- none

34 Litter Volume Generation Data: Turkeys Limited data currently available for all states based on historic "book values". No additional data is available at this time. Data sources currently unknown for New York. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan & bird size or average live weight has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- work directly with state agencies and private sources to develop opportunities for collecting historic and current generation data and/or develop relationship formulas between bird slaughter weight and litter generation. NASS Recommendation- review available data such as bird slaughter reports to determine opportunities to enhance available data on bird average life spans/grow-out periods, and average bird weights if currently insufficient to support potential use in litter generation formula.

35 Turkeys Bird Population Data: Annual NASS state scale data is not currently available for all states for all years. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- if available, utilize current NASS Agricultural Census county scale data to inform distribution of annual NASS state scale data to a county scale. NASS Recommendation- determine if county scale population data, or large watershed scale population data can be collected and publically reported with state/industry assistance.

36 Minor Breeds: Ducks, Geese, etc. Litter Concentration Data: Data currently not available from state or state contracted laboratories for Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia due to lack of identified presence of minor breed operations. Data for Maryland's Eastern Shore can be replicated by Delaware laboratory data, however no minor breed operations have been identified for either state. Data not currently available for Pennsylvania due to the lack of a state contract with the PSU laboratory. Minor breed operations have been identified in the state. Data sources currently unknown for New York. CBP Recommendation- work directly with Pennsylvania state agencies and the industry to develop opportunities for collecting concentration data. NASS Recommendation- none

37 Minor Breeds: Ducks, Geese, etc Litter Volume Generation Data: Limited data currently available for all states based on historic "book values". No additional data is available at this time. Data sources currently unknown for New York. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan & bird size or average live weight has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- work directly with state agencies and private sources to develop opportunities for collecting historic and current generation data and/or develop relationship formulas between bird slaughter weight and litter generation. NASS Recommendation- review available data such as bird slaughter reports to determine data on bird average life spans/grow-out periods, and average bird weights if currently insufficient to support potential use in litter generation formula.

38 Minor Breeds: Ducks, Geese, etc Bird Population Data: Annual NASS state scale data is not currently available for all states for all years. Data on grow-out periods or average lifespan has changed over time, but very little data is currently available across the jurisdictions. CBP Recommendation- if available, utilize current NASS Agricultural Census county scale data to inform distribution of annual NASS state scale data to a county scale. NASS Recommendation- determine if county scale population data, or large watershed scale population data can be collected and publically reported with state/industry assistance.

39 Summary To some extent, N and P concentration data available in all states. Litter volume data typically historical values. DE and MD do have current volume data ( ) for roasters/broilers. Population data for broilers/roasters and turkeys available from NASS via production data. Population data needed for other species.

40 Status Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania are summarizing data & writing a report. Other states have much less data than Delaware. The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association is trying obtain data from the poultry industry for other states. Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is now requiring the report be peer reviewed before approval. Reviewed by people outside the watershed. Then approved by three CBP committees.

41 Population Estimates

42 Annual Production (x10^6) Delaware-Chickens Model 240 NASS Production 235 Corrected Census Year