GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED: THE NEED FOR NEW POLICY THINKING

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1 GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED: THE NEED FOR NEW POLICY THINKING Copenhagen: 21 November, 2016 Nadim Ahmad, Head of Trade and Competitiveness Statistics Division 1

2 International fragmentation of production Explosion of trade in intermediates as firms specialise in stages (tasks) of production Wing box: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) Wing ice protection: GKN Aerospace (UK) Vertical Stabiliser: Boeing Commercial Airplanes (USA) Raked wing tips: Korean Airlines Aerospace division (Korea) Horizontal Stabiliser: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy) Aux. power unit: Hamilton Sundstrand (USA) Passenger doors: Latécoère Aéroservices (France) Cargo doors: Saab (Sweden) Prepreg composites: Toray (Japan) Centre fuselage: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy) Rear fuselage: Boeing South Carolina (USA) Lavatories: Jamco (Japan) Doors & windows: Zodiac Aerospace (USA) PPG Aerospace (USA) Centre wing box: Fuji Heavy Industries (Japan) Landing gear: Messier-Dowti (France) Electric brakes: Messier-Bugatti (France) Tires: Bridgestone Tires (Japan) Forward fuselage: Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan) Spirit Aerosystems (USA) Escape slides: Air Cruisers (USA) Engines: GE Engines (USA), Rolls Royce (UK) Flight deck seats: Ipeco (UK) Engine nacelles: Goodrich (USA) Tools/Software: Dassault Systemes (France) Navigation: Honeywell (USA) Pilot control system: Rockwell Colins (USA) Wiring: Safran (France) Final assembly: Boeing Commercial Airplanes (USA) Final consumption 2 Final assembly 1 Trade in inputs (first tier suppliers) Decomposition of gross exports Trade in inputs (second tier suppliers) Value added by second tier suppliers Value added by first tier suppliers Value added in the country of final production 2

3 Resulting in multiple counting in conventional trade statistics Gross Trade, % of GDP LUX IRL SVK HUN EST BEL NLD CZE SVN CHE ISL DNK KOR AUT POL DEU SWE PRT FIN NOR ISR CHL MEX ESP GRC CAN GBR NZL ITA FRA TUR AUS JPN USA With the potential to create misleading perceptions and imperfect policies: 3

4 Requiring a new statistical response: TiVA [no direct relationship] Gross exports (100) Gross exports (130) Country A Country B Country C Value added (100) Value added (30) Value added (100) [in value added terms, there is a direct relationship between A and C]

5 Most intermediate imports are used for exports.. Imported intermediate inputs used for exports, by import category: % Denmark Finland Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Utilities Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Utilities Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Norway Sweden Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Utilities Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Utilities Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total 5

6 driving exports and competitiveness Denmark Foreign content of exports, % of exports Finland FVA share of gross exports, 2011 FVA share of gross exports, 1995 FVA share of gross exports, 2011 FVA share of gross exports, Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Norway Sweden FVA share of gross exports, 2011 FVA share of gross exports, 1995 FVA share of gross exports, 2011 FVA share of gross exports, Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total Agriculture Mining Food products Textiles & apparel Wood & paper Coke & petroleum Chemicals Rubber & plastics Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Fabricated metals Machinery ICT & electronics Electrical machinery Motor vehicles Other transport Other manufactures Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services Total 6

7 but upstream domestic suppliers drive competitiveness too Gross exports by source of value added: Manufacturing Foreign content Upstream domestic 4 3 Direct value-added content 2 Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden 7

8 .including services.. Services value added embodied in manufacturing exports, by country 5 Construction Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services 1995, Total 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% IDN CHL KOR CHN USA MEX JPN GRC IND CAN NOR AUS ZAF ISL GBR RUS DEU AUT BRA SVK TUR CZE ESP ISR SVN POL IRL EST PRT HUN NZL NLD ITA FIN SWE CHE LUX DNK BEL FRA 8

9 integration has increased Foreign Value Added share of gross exports, % SUA BRN COL ROW BRA IDN RUS ARG AUS JPN USA NZL NOR ZAF NLD HRV CHL HKG CYP CHE GBR CAN PHL LTU IND ROU GRC FRA ISR DEU TUR ITA ESP AUT CRI LVA SWE MEX CHN POL TUN DNK PRT ISL BEL FIN EST SVN VNM KHM MLT THA BGR MYS KOR SGP TWN IRL CZE SVK HUN LUX 9

10 ..and export orientation is significant but the pace of integration has been slow compared to neighbours Percentage point change in share of domestic value added in foreign final demand ( ) France Finland Germany Poland Denmark Austria Hungary Iceland Czech Republic Estonia 0 Italy 2 25% 3 35% 4 45% Netherlands Lithuania Sweden Latvia Norway Switzerland Slovak Republic Slovenia Domestic value added in foreign final demand, percentage of total economy value added (2011) 10

11 trade patterns change too. Denmark to main trading partners, % of exports Finland 14% Gross exports Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand 14% Gross exports Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand 12% 12% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% DEU USA SWE GBR NOR FRA CHN ITA JPN RUS USA SWE RUS DEU CHN GBR IND JPN FRA ITA Norway Sweden 25% Gross exports Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand 12% Gross exports Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand 2 15% 5% 8% 6% 4% 2% GBR USA DEU FRA SWE CAN DNK ITA CHN ESP USA DEU NOR GBR FRA FIN DNK CHN ITA RUS 11

12 adding important insights 300 US trade deficit with selected partners, 2011, USD bn Gross Value added

13 on sources of growth and interconnectedness.. 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% Chinese households were important drivers of export growth in recent years..what does a slowdown imply? TUR ARG MEX IND ITA RUS GBR FRA USA CAN DEU SAU IDN BRA ZAF KOR AUS JPN Share of increase in total exports in VA terms driven by increased final demand from China, Share of total exports in VA terms for Chinese final demand

14 the feedback loop 10 Mexico s exports by origin of value-added, Mexico ROW US 14

15 But this only scratches at the surface Production Jobs Trade Investment Inequalities Actors - SMEs 15

16 Global production requires that we put global at the heart of national But with a granularity that provides insights on the actors and their heterogeneity Improving our understanding of interconnectedness and benefits, challenges and consequences of globalisation Whilst also improving GDP In other words new internationally integrated economic accounting systems 16

17 Trailblazing collaboration with Nordic council To create expanded TIVA highlighting the role of SMEs and MNEs and Traders in global production 17

18 A large share of domestic value-added exports reflect foreign MNEs. but non MNEs play an important upstream role Shares of firms in gross exports and in exported value added, 2013 Gross exports Value added of exports Gross exports Value added of exports Gross exports Value added of exports Gross exports Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Value added of exports Non-MNEs Non-MNEs, indirect exports via other non-mnes Non-MNEs, indirect exports via foreign-owned MNEs Foreign_owned_MNEs Non_MNEs, direct exports Non_MNEs, indirect exports via domestic MNEs Domestic_MNEs 18

19 meaning that SMEs are highly integrated (directly and indirectly) particularly dependent SMEs Shares of firms in gross exports and in exported value added, Independent - Micro Independent - Small Independent - Medium Dependent - Micro Dependent - Small Dependent - Medium Large Gross exports Value added exports Gross exports Value added exports Gross exports Value added exports Gross exports Value added exports Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 19

20 But spillovers are higher from domestic MNEs.. Value added generated at domestic suppliers for each Euro of value added at exporter, by firm type, ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 20

21 partly because the orientation of foreign MNEs is more inward looking.. 8 Value added due to exports as share of total value added, Indirect, as a supplier Direct, own exports 2009 Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Non-MNEs Domestic MNEs Foreign-owned MNEs Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 21

22 around 3 of jobs depend on foreign markets Employment embodied in exports, by firm type, as share of total employment 35% 3 25% 2 15% Non_Traders Two_way_traders Importers Exporters 5% Denmark Finland Norway Sweden 22

23 and up to 2 even in firms with no direct exports. 7 Share of employment that is embodied in exports, by firm type, Exporters Importers Two-way traders Non-Traders Exporters Importers Two-way traders Non-Traders Exporters Importers Two-way traders Non-Traders Exporters Importers Two-way traders Non-Traders Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Direct exports Indirect exports 23

24 Next steps Forthcoming report to accompany today s report Build on momentum from the collaboration with the Nordics but also advance with other countries To help build the 21 st century statistical information systems needed for 21 st century production 24

25 Thank you: Contact: 25