RISK ASSESSMENT DEVELOPING LOCAL CAPACITY

Transcription

1 RISK ASSESSMENT DEVELOPING LOCAL CAPACITY Srikantha Herath Senior Academic Program Officer Institute for Sustainability and Peace United Nations University Tokyo, Japan

2 Outline Risk assessment for managing environmental change Case study: Global dimming and impacts Local capacity development for sustainable solutions Capacity Development Challenges Case study: Training program on flood risk assessment Discussion

3 Risk assessment Rapid changes of environmental change affect all aspects of our lives. Climate change: A priority How to respond? Learning from past experiences Urbanization: (Water sector: flood risk, quality, scarcity, land subsidence, wastewater management..) Risk assessment would have helped in avoiding many of these problems. Assess impacts; understand risks; identify interventions and implement

4 Mitigation and Adaptation Needs Need to deal with complex problems involving multiple stake holders, considering environmental, economic and social interactions. Solutions based on local needs and experiences are needed. Capacity to apply global knowledge to local problems emerge as the key requirement. Capacity development needs are: Based on local needs. Increase rapidly the number of technically competent persons. Facilitate customizing global knowledge to local needs.

5 9 Central Sri Lanka Kotmale Basin

6 Central Sri Lanka Kotmale Basin Observations Tea plantation managers and farmers: Climate has changed Change to seasons Drizzle has disappeared. Intensity has increased 9

7 Central Sri Lanka Kotmale Basin Observations Tea plantation managers and farmers: Climate has changed Change to seasons Drizzle has disappeared. Intensity has increased Activities Installation of high resolution rain gauge network A fractal modeling study showed increasing rain intensities 9

8 Central Sri Lanka Kotmale Basin Observations Tea plantation managers and farmers: Climate has changed Change to seasons Drizzle has disappeared. Intensity has increased Activities Installation of high resolution rain gauge network A fractal modeling study showed increasing rain intensities Findings Rain intensities increased 9 Inter-monsoon (March to April) decreased

9 Rainfall May to September change in the last 3 decades in the central part of Sri Lanka December to February March to April The inter-monsoons have changed.. This has caused uncertainties in the second cultivation in the hill country Links with ABC? October to November 10

10 A detailed study

11 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU

12 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU Catchment Response: Hydrological Modeling University of Peradeniya

13 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU Macro-impact Assessment MIND Catchment Response: Hydrological Modeling University of Peradeniya

14 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU Catchment Response: Hydrological Modeling University of Peradeniya Macro-impact Assessment MIND Rice Production IIT-Karagpur/UNU

15 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU Catchment Response: Hydrological Modeling University of Peradeniya Macro-impact Assessment MIND Rice Production IIT-Karagpur/UNU Societal constraints Roman Forum

16 A detailed study Modeling local weather: Downscaling with LAM UNU Catchment Response: Hydrological Modeling University of Peradeniya Macro-impact Assessment MIND Rice Production IIT-Karagpur/UNU Societal constraints Roman Forum

17 Result 2: Reduction of Rainfall Results of a six months period simulation over southern part of Sri Lanka. 13 For large rainfalls the % effect is small (for 100mm/day ~ 4%) For small rainfalls % effect is large(for 1-2mm/day ~ 40%) back

18 Action Impact Matrix to Prioritize Policies considering economic, environmental and social aspects. MIND (Mohan Institute for National Development) study Two types of matrices - Water Using Sectors Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation and effects on development (WED) - Development Effects on Water Using Sectors Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (DEW) WED-AIM = Effect A + Impact C DEW-AIM = Effect B + Impact D Effect B Goals / Policies Impact D Climate Change Impact C Water Sector 15 Effect A

19 16 Effect of water using sectors on Development

20 Effect of water using sectors on Development Risks: In a predominantly small holder system, agriculture is the finest instrument for PA. Disturbance of rainfall patterns adversely affect the rainfed and Chena farmers, the poorest among the farming community. Loss of crops due to floods and droughts saps the farmers of the meager savings and leads them to abject poverty. 16

21 Effect of water using sectors on Development 17 back

22 Effect of water using sectors on Development (-3) Risks: Primary food security comes from locally grown foods such as rice % of total rice production comes from major and minor irrgation schemes. Non staples such as yams and legumes are grown in rainfed highlands. Changing patterns of rainfall distribution negatively affects food security. ABC reduces both intermonsoonal rainfall and solar radiation, each of which will reduce crop yields. CC impacts are compounded by the ABC effect, making management of Yala and Maha seasonal cropping more difficult, and leading to lower production and food security. 17 back

23 Yield Change due to ABC Without ABC Top biomass kg/ha With ABC Days after Planting Maha (October March) season rice yield reduces from 5573 kg/ha to 4599 kg/ha [ 17% reduction] Studies in India 15% reduction (Ramanathan et. Al) 18 Need different rice varieties, water management facilities and other supporting policies to overcome this deficit. back

24 Challenges In the study area two major crops, rice and tea are cultivated. They both are affected by climate change in different ways: Rice production reduces due to radiation reduction. Loss of inter-monsoon rain require shifting rice planting dates Tea is affected by temperature variability, moisture gradients as well as rain intensity. Social tensions may escalate as traditionally the cultivation is practiced by different ethnic groups (rice by Sinhalese farmers and tea by Tamil factory workers) due to competition for jobs. It is extremely difficult to prescribe appropriate adaptation strategies from outside - they must evolve gradually locally.

25 Mainstreaming adaptation It is important to develop local capacity To downscale climate change forecasts to local scale To assess impacts To study alternate strategies and their appropriateness (beyond adaptation) Mainstreaming adaptation strategies in to development planning, also has many challenges. Inadequacy of qualified researchers Lack of dialog between research and implementation communities Problems and inadequacy of higher education sector

26 Human Resources in R&D Developed vs Developing countries Number of scientists 3.8 vs 0.4 per 1000 people R&D as a percent of GDP 2% vs 0.5% or les

27 Which sectors receive the most investment?

28 Key challenges Enabling flow from research to implementation Enhancing capacity of higher education sector to support manage environmental change

29 UNU example project UNU convened an expert meeting in 2003 from 15 countries to discuss extreme flood risk in major Asian Cities Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam which recommended a joint action programme, focusing on assessing extreme flood risks and developing response plans Building on case studies a training program comprising of the modules rainfall downscaling, GIS and inundation modeling have been developed. 26 Training trainers (national coordinators) <--> Country training (specialists ) <--> Post graduate Supporting Program

30 First session 5 countries Organized by UNU (1.5 months in two sessions) Resources from: UNESCO-IHE, Monash University, Australia, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., AIT, Thailand Participants - Faculty from a University and Professionals from the organization responsible for flood control - training of trainers China: Tsinhua University, Beijing Municipality Nepal: Institute of Engineering, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Philippines: University of Philippines, PAGASA (Hydro meteorological Agency) Sri Lanka: University of Peradeniya, Irrigation Department Viet Nam: Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Storm Control and Dyke Management

31 Vietnam Agencies: Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology Department of Storm Control and Dyke Management Event: November, 2007 high flood occurred in Central of Vietnam (include Thua Thien Hue Province). 28 Basin: Huong The Huong (Perfume) River is the largest river of Thua Thien-Hue province located in the Central Coastal Area of Vietnam.

32 Time of simulation : 2007 NOV Grid spacing : km for domain Meteorological data: Every 6h from NCAR Time step : 270s

33 Setting up a national Capacity Development training program on extreme floods Intensive traning program for professionals to rapidly develop local capacity Organized jointly with the university and relevant government agency Supported with HIGHER EDUCATION programs A NEW TYPE OF HIGHER EDUCATION PROGRAM IS NEEDED Meeting In Colombo, Sri Lanka On Program May, senior officials

34 Participants Irrigation Department MASL University CECB Disaster Management Met Department Survey Dept Lanka Hydraulics Lowlying development 7 DD, 3 Chief Eng, 3 Eng 11 RPM, 2 CE, 7 Eng 2 Senior Lectures, 2 5 Lecturers, 1 Post Grad 6 DGM, AGM, 2 PM, 2 Eng 1 DD 1 Meterologist 1 Cartography Unit 2 Eng. Manager, Engineer 1 Engineer Organization 35 Participants

35 What was done WRF, Local Area Model set up and rainfall forecast for 3 days: 3 layer nested scheme Past extreme rain event Forecast downscaling Reanalysis data downscaling GIS system study Setup and simulate demo-data set flood inundation in Yom river basin, Thailand Analysis of flood, risk assessment and loss estimation for demo data sets

36 Outcomes Bringing academics and practitioners together is producing sustainable relations in sharing data/information and promoting applied research Hydrologists and Meteorologists found understanding and using LAMS and DHMs quite useful. Our aim is to stimulate and support specialists to produce a critical mass of researchers and practitioners in the region who actively engage in using earth observations and global models for local impact assessment.

37 Concluding Remarks Enhancing capacity of higher education sector in the developing countries offer a sustainable approach to successfully address environmental change challenges The support of developed country Universities is extremely important to rapidly enhance the capacity of higher education sector and professionals in developing countries through joint training programs and applied research projects. Multi-disciplinary teams working on problems from different perspectives provide a starting point in integrating knowledge and perspectives in the search of sustainable solutions. Creating opportunities for experts and professionals to learn each other s methodologies in interdependent disciplines create important synergies in the design and plan of development programs

38 Thank You for your attention!