The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Opportunities in agriculture research

Transcription

1 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Opportunities in agriculture research Alexander J. Müller Assistant Director-General FAO Sustainable Development Department GFAR Triennial Conference 2006 Vigyan Bhavan New Delhi 9-11 November 2006

2 Global assessment of the Earth s ecosystems Governance Launched by UN Secretary General in 2000 Authorized by governments through 4 multi-lateral environmental agreements CBD, CCD, FCCC, Ramsar Independent board of directors - UN agencies, conventions, business and industry, governments, nongovernmental organizations, indigenous people Preparation and review Prepared by 1,360 experts from 95 countries Independent review editors (80 experts) Review comments from 850 experts and governments Information from 33 sub-global assessments

3 MA Framework

4 Unprecedented ecosystem change During the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period time in human history: Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of ecosystem services evaluated being degraded or used unsustainably More land converted to cropland since 1945 than in 18 th, 19 th centuries combined Coral reefs reduced by 20% in last decades Mangrove area reduced by 35% in last decades Water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960 Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960 Biological nitrogen flows in terrestrial ecosystems doubled since 1960; phosphorus flows tripled Mammal, bird, and amphibian species (10 30%) currently threatened with extinction

5 ... continued ecosystem change Habitat transformation Further 10 20% of grassland and forestland may be converted by 2050 Overexploitation, overfishing Pressures on commercial fish stocks expected to continue & even intensify. Invasive alien species Introduction of non-native species will continue to increase Nutrient loading Flow of reactive nitrogen doubled -?60% further increase by 2050? Climate change Could become the dominant driver of ecosystem change by the end of the century

6 Key issue: Intensive use in most ecosystems

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8 Key issue: Population vs. productivity

9 Key issue: Pressure on fish stocks

10 Key issue: Species extinctions

11 Key issue: Climate change

12 Key issue: Excess nutrients

13 MA Scenarios Not predictions scenarios are plausible futures Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis used in scenario development

14 Future scenario responses Global Orchestration Major investments in public goods - education, infrastructure, poverty reduction Trade barriers and distorting subsidies eliminated Adapting Mosaic Widespread use of active adaptive management Investment in education (13% of GDP on education, compared to 3.5% today) TechnoGarden Significant investment in technologies to increase efficiency of use of ecosystem services Widespread use of payments for ecosystem services and market mechanisms

15 Importance of indirect drivers Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without addressing indirect drivers of change: Population change (including growth and migration) Change in economic activity (including economic growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns) Socio-political factors (ranging from presence of conflict to public participation in decision-making) Cultural factors Technological change Collectively these factors influence levels of production and consumption of ecosystem services and their sustainability.

16 Key barriers Inappropriate or weak institutional and governance arrangements, including regulation, accountability and capacity to manage ecosystems. Market failures and misalignment of economic incentives Lack of political or economic power of low income groups dependent on ecosystem services Under-investment in development and diffusion of some technologies Insufficient knowledge (as well as poor use of existing knowledge) concerning ecosystem services and responses that could enhance benefits while conserving resources

17 Responses: Institutions Further changes in institutional and environmental governance frameworks are needed to create enabling conditions for effective management of ecosystems. Promising options Integration of ecosystem management goals within agriculture, natural resource development frameworks Increased coordination among multilateral environmental agreements and between environmental agreements and other international economic and social institutions Increased transparency and accountability of government and private-sector performance on decisions that have an impact on ecosystems, including through greater involvement of concerned stakeholders in decision-making

18 Responses: Economics Economic and financial interventions can provide powerful incentives to regulate use of ecosystem goods and services Promising options Greater use of economic instruments and market-based approaches in management of ecosystem services: Taxes or user fees for activities with external costs Payment for ecosystem services Use of certification schemes for agriculture/fisheries/forestry Reduction of subsidies that promote excessive use of key ecosystem services (e.g. watershed protection, soil fertility, biodiversity loss)

19 Responses: Social & Behavioral These are generally interventions that stakeholders initiate and execute by exercising their procedural or democratic rights to improve ecosystems and human well-being Promising options Measures to reduce aggregate consumption of unsustainably managed ecosystem services Behavioral changes that reduce demand for threatened ecosystem services can be encouraged through education and public awareness programs, promotion of demand-side management, commitments by industry to use raw materials from certified sources, and improved product labeling Investment in communication and education Empowerment of vulnerable groups dependent on ecosystem services or affected by their degradation, including women, indigenous peoples, young people

20 Responses: Technological Development and diffusion of technologies designed to increase the efficiency of resource use or reduce the impacts of drivers such as climate change and nutrient loading are essential Promising options Technologies and management regimes that increase crop yields with less intensive inputs (e.g. water, nutrients, pesticides) Diversification of crop production systems (e.g. biofuel crops, crop / livestock systems) Exploitation of opportunities with benefits at multiple scales (e.g. carbon sequestration) Maintenance, restoration of supporting elements for ecosystem services (e.g. vegetative cover, species diversity, soil fertility) Increased energy efficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. rice and methane)

21 Responses: Knowledge Effective management of ecosystems is constrained by lack of knowledge and information about ecosystems but also by the failure to use adequately information that does exist. Promising options Building thematic knowledge networks and communities of practice around ecosystem services Linking relevant knowledge and information to assessments and decision-making, including traditional and practitioner knowledge Enhancement of human and institutional capacity to assess consequences of ecosystem change on human well-being Policies and priorities based on such assessments

22 Summary Relevant aspects for agriculture research: Cross-disciplinary, systemic approaches are needed to address complex issues Not just agronomic challenges, significant social and economic issues require multi-disciplinary approaches More emphasis on indirect drivers of agroecosystem change (people and policies) as points of leverage Agroecosystem research priorities adapted to prevailing conditions Better understanding of agroecosystem thresholds vis-a-vis response to damage and provision of services Communicating agroecosystem approaches to land users Thank you.