Key challenges and opportunities for the Food and Agriculture System towards 2050

Transcription

1 Key challenges and opportunities for the Food and Agriculture System towards 2050 A Food Industry perspective Hans Jöhr, Corporate Head of Agriculture OECD, Paris, 3 Dec. 2013

2 Key challenges for the food industry Ensured long-term supply of safe, quality assured, regulatory compliant and price competitive agricultural materials to serve consumers with high nutritional and affordable products. Sufficient supply of raw materials will depend on gains in agricultural productivity, which will be influence by: Soil fertility and land availability Water Plant and animal genetics Energy Post-harvest losses and waste Knowledge and technology Education and vocational training Enabling environment 2

3 Soil fertility and land availability It is unlikely that more arable land will be available in future and soil fertility will reduce. Source: UNEP/Grid Arendal, 2008 We must preserve land and sustain soil fertility promoting integrated nutrient management making use of organic and synthetic fertilizers! Source: FAO/UNEP 3

4 Water Water pollution is of global concern and water used in agriculture accounts for almost 75% of water withdrawals. Source: I.A. Shiklomanov and UNESCO, 1999 We need to build and promote more efficient irrigation technologies and make economic use of fresh water and treated wastewater! 4

5 Plant and animal genetics There is evidence of stagnating yield growth for some crops (e.g. rice, wheat, soybeans) and high yielding crops and animals are increasingly susceptible to diseases, pests and changing environments. Wheat yields in UK Rice yields in Japan Year Year Source: R.A.T. Fischer, G.O. Edmeades, 2010 We need to promote breeding for higher yields but also better tolerance to diseases, pest and changing environment and have to materialize the yield gap! 5

6 Energy Energy consumption will continue to increase and with it the energy prices, translating into production and processing of agricultural raw materials. But the era of cheap oil may be gone forever OECD/IEA, 2011 We must promote energy efficient agricultural production systems and produce locally where we have a comparative advantage, avoiding unnecessary shipment of bulk raw materials! 6

7 Source: Post harvest losses and waste Post-harvest losses and waste accounts for about 50% of the calories from farm to fork. Source: J. Lundquist et al Source: H. Charles, J. Godfray et al We need to promote more efficient use of agricultural raw materials and avoid post-harvest losses and waste along the entire supply chain! 7

8 Knowledge and technology Limited investments into agricultural production systems and education such as vocational schools and extension services, leaving the potential of new advanced agro-technologies unattained. Source: ASTI, 2012 We need to educate the next generation of farmers (agripreneurs) by promoting agricultural education (vocational schools), extension and applied research, and provide access to finances for on-farm investments! 8

9 Education and vocational training Agricultural education in primary and secondary schools is nonexistent and appropriate vocational training is neglected. Nestlé s contributions towards successful professionals: Trains farmers in Nestlé markets (2012); Builds 40 schools in 4 years in Cote d Ivoire; Supports self-sufficient agricultural school (Paraguay); Builds a Dairy Farming Institute in China; Will employ young people across Europe over the next three years. We need to strengthen collaboration between public-private bodies to give young people in rural communities new professional perspectives! 9

10 Enabling environment Policies that favor markets and trade, the provision of inputs and related infrastructure for agricultural development are often missing. Net agricultural production (Index =100) Contributions expected: Encourage free market and trade; Support programs that improve access to agro-inputs; Improve physical infrastructure; Invest into education of young people. We need an enabling environment that integrates stakeholders from the public and private sector to develop sustainable solutions for rural communities! 10

11 Sustainable intensification of agriculture Ensuring long-term supply of raw materials requires: Avoiding post-harvest losses and waste along the supply chain; Producing more food from the same area of land while reducing the environmental impacts (sustainable intensification). To produce more food we must promote a Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture that increases: Productivity How much a defined production system is able to produce over time; Stability and Variation How much productivity varies from year to year; Resilience How well a production system tolerates or recover from stress or shock; Equitability How much farming families and rural populations will benefit from selling their goods and providing public services to mainly urban citizens. 11

12 Conclusion The urbanized world of tomorrow will heavily depend on the food industry to ensure supply of goods by transforming agricultural raw materials to the finished products. In order to feed the world by 2050 we need an enabling environment that fosters private-public partnerships between the public sector, food industry, retailers, NGOs, agro-input suppliers, financial institution, etc. International organizations are crucial in creating this enabling environment and developing an appropriate incentive system. 12