Empowering growth across the agriculture industry for 30 years. North Dakota Wheat Analysis 2018 prepared with

Transcription

1 Empowering growth across the agriculture industry for 30 years North Dakota Wheat Analysis 2018 prepared with

2 Vegetation is a good indicator of yield potential

3 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 Weather conditions for 2018 North Dakota Spring Wheat Below average precipitation occurred during the May July growing period. May July 2018 Precipitation compared to the last 5 years. 8

4 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 Weather conditions for 2018 North Dakota Spring Wheat Well above average temperatures during June and August. Below average temperatures in July during the critical grain filling stage. June August August July Cooler Normal Warmer

5 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 Vegetation maps for North Dakota Spring Wheat Vegetation health improving during June and then EXTREMELY healthy during July and starting to decline in August as the wheat reaches maturity. June August July Worse Equal Better

6 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 NDVI vs. North Dakota Spring Wheat The Wheat Quality Council toured ND July th 2018 and projected Spring Wheat yield at (USDA 49.0 ) The NDVI Curve clearly shows Spring Wheat is more healthy than 2017 and 2004 when the final yield was The NDVI Curve indicates the crop is most similar in vegetative health to 2015 and had a yield of 48.0.

7 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 Vegetative Health Comparison & USDA Final Yield July 2018 July July 2017 July

8 CASE STUDY NORTH DAKOTA WHEAT 2018 MGEX December 2018 Spring Wheat Futures Contracts WQC 41.1 Geosys & USDA June 48.0 Geosys & USDA July 48.0 Geosys & USDA August 48.0 Geosys & USDA September 48.0 The Wheat Quality Council raised concerns over the Spring Wheat crop yield during late July. MGEX December futures responded with a $0.70+ move higher during the next 2 weeks. GEOSYS brings real time data to support crop development. It reduces knee-jerk reactions. Early identification of a crop and NDVI comparisons is a powerful risk management tool. 8

9 Want to know more about Agriquest? Please visit our website

10 Mark Haake Global Crop Analyst +1 (612) Michael Driscoll Director of Sales North America 1 (612) Thank you!

11 Empowering growth across the agriculture industry for 30 years Iowa Corn Analysis 2018 prepared with

12 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Corn Story for 2018 In the November 8, 2018 WASDE the USDA lowered Iowa corn yield to bushels per acre. The highest estimate for Iowa corn yield was the September 12 th WASDE at bushels per acre. What did the USDA miss? Using the AGRIQUEST tool our clients knew in August that yield potential would not meet or exceed 2016 or 2017 yield levels Year State Average: Bushels per Acre Image represents 2017 Iowa crop districts (High & Low average yield) Image is a 2017 yield map by county for Iowa Corn

13 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Corn Story for 2018 Planting progress has an impact on yield potential. USDA targets 80% planted by Mid May for best yield potential. Iowa corn was only 65% planted as of May 13, Conclusion: Higher potential for reduced yield in 5 of 9 districts. Below 80% Borderline 80% Above 80%

14 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Precipitation for 2018 Iowa had above average precipitation during June and August. July was dry and well below average. Key corn development occurs during July. The silking stage requires adequate moisture. Conclusion: Dry to extreme dryness during the key silking stage reduces yield potential. June July August Dryer Normal Wetter

15 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Precipitation for 2018 Cumulative Precipitation for July 2018 in comparison to July 2017, July 2016, and July 2015 reference years. Precipitation during July of 2018 was not better than the highest yielding years of 2016 (203 bu/acre) or 2017 (202 bu/acre) Conclusion: Cumulative precipitation does not meet or exceed reference years 2016 or Yield potential would be lower vs vs vs Dryer Normal Wetter

16 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Precipitation for 2018 Iowa Soil Moisture July 2018 was well below average. Similar years compared to 2018 for soil moisture in July would be 2017 & Conclusion: A rapidly declining soil moisture during the key silking stage would stress the corn and reduce yield potential.

17 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Temperatures for 2018 Late planted Iowa corn experienced above average temperatures and average precipitation during June. Iowa corn in July saw below average temperatures which helped mitigate the excessive dryness. Conclusion: Iowa corn faced two extremes. Slow developing corn stressed in June by hot temperatures and then extreme dryness in July during the key silking stage. June July August Cooler Normal Warmer

18 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Temperatures for 2018 Average Temperatures for July 2018 in comparison to July 2017, July 2016, and July 2015 reference years. Conclusion: Temperatures in July were normal to below which would improve yield potential vs vs vs Cooler Normal Warmer

19 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Vegetative Maps for 2018 A noticeably rapid decline of vegetative health can be seen from June to July and then to August. During this same period the USDA was raising yield potential to 206 bushels per acre in their September report. Conclusion: The accelerated decline in vegetation seen below indicates a high potential for yield loss. June July August Worse Equal Better

20 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Vegetative Maps for 2018 Vegetative health for July 2018 in comparison to July 2017, July 2016, and July 2015 reference years. Conclusion: Vegetative health was not significantly better than the two highest corn yielding years of 2016 & Yield potential is reduced vs vs vs Worse Equal Better

21 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 Iowa Vegetative Maps for 2018 Vegetative Health for May 1 st through September 12 th 2018 in comparison to 2017, 2016, and 2015 reference years. Conclusion: Vegetative health did not meet or exceed the two highest corn yielding years of 2016 or Going into the September 12 th USDA report, we see clear evidence that yield would not meet or exceed vs vs vs Worse Equal Better

22 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 September 2018 September 2017 Hot Temps 2018 crop cycle Very Dry September 2016 & September 2015 Late planting Cooler Temps Accelerated Vegetative health decline Comparing the 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 crop cycle NDVI curves against average vegetative health the last 15 years. Conclusion: The rapid decline of the NDVI curve after peaking early July indicates a high potential for yield loss. Vegetative health in September shown as a comparison to those same years would also clearly suggest the WASDE estimate that month of 206 was wrong.

23 CASE STUDY IOWA CORN 2018 CONCLUSION The AGRIQUEST tool identified early key elements that would negatively impact corn yield in Iowa. As an AGRIQUEST client, you would have known as soon as August that yield potential would fall well short of 206. As an AGRIQUEST client, you would have had access to this type of in depth analysis as well as yield estimates during the crop cycle.

24 Want to know more about Agriquest? Please visit our website

25 Mark Haake Global Crop Analyst +1 (612) Michael Driscoll Director of Sales North America 1 (612) Thank you!