Future opportunities for the WA oat industry Rob Loughman and Munro Patchett

Transcription

1 Future opportunities for the WA oat industry Rob Loughman and Munro Patchett

2 Outline Market opportunity grain and hay Processing opportunity grain and hay On-farm opportunity grain and hay Consider some challenges associated with these opportunities

3 Australian oat industry Oat grain production ABAREs 5 year average to 2015/16 1.3Mt grain five years av. Aust prod n (domestic and export) 5th largest Aust. crop after wheat, barley, canola and sorghum ~50% produced in WA (exported) 1Mt oaten hay exports five years av. Aust pdn 40% produced in WA Oaten hay exports Industry estimates 2016

4 Oat trade 2014 IMPORTS EXPORTS

5 Healthy and versatile foods in demand among expanding Asian middle classes. Whole grain food product oat B-glucan oat bran, low GI starch, healthy oils, antioxidants Functional food Combines proven health benefits with convenience Good combination of flavour and texture Adaptable to cultural cuisines

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7 masala tomato oats

8 Oat import value by country ($USM) China Malaysia India Australian oats 2001/ /15 Coriolis Pathways to Competitiveness report 2016

9 Drivers of demand population & income growth Asian middle class will grow to three billion by 2030 Source: UN and OECD via

10 Drivers of demand healthy grain Oat β-glucan helps lower cholesterol reabsorption Whole-grain benefits insoluble fibre (bran), antioxidants, proteins, low GI starch and healthy oils that contribute health benefits. New health conscious markets for oats are shaping regional trade. Top 3 causes of death in China & India Stroke* 26% 10% Coronary Heart Dis* 17% 14% Lung Disease 11% 12% * share the same risk factor high LDL ( bad ) cholesterol levels World Health Organisation data 2014 Source:

11 Drivers of demand export hay Population growth and increasing incomes are also driving Asian demand for meat and dairy Feedlot beef and dairy industries are developing in target Asian markets to satisfy this demand Australian oat hay exports * Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Middle East

12 Grain processing opportunity WA s on-shore processing capacity will more than double Unigrain / Quaker / CBH-Blue Lake Milling WA processed oats are exported On top of significant investment in processing in China, India... Pepsico s new Quaker Forrestfield mill commissioned in

13 Hay processing opportunity established exporters are building additional capacity 2017 announced expansions and new builds in WA should see capacity increase by up to 20 per cent. Victoria will also see an increase in capacity with two new plants announced at the end of Gilmac hay processing facility, Wagin, under construction

14 On-farm opportunity High yielding break crop to improve seasonal and price risks Inherently less prone to waterlogging frosts Adapts well to early sowing reduces risks of spring drought Weed competitive crop canopy harvest weed seed management for grain and hay Rotational benefits soil and foliar disease management

15 Specialised oat grain production systems Large scale specialised production ( ha p.a.)* Carefully plan oats into the system with preceding harvest weed management Early/dry sown Only milling varieties deliverable as OAT1 agronomic packages target high yield + high quality (OAT1). Forward contracting through closer relationships with manufacturers / traders. Strong focus on achieving OAT1 DAFWA 2016 * Garren Knell, ConsultAg

16 WA specialised oat grain production Oat yield by state (av ) Oat tonnes per farm (2015) 2.1 Yield t/ha (5 year av.) WA SA Vic NSW Coriolis Pathways To Competitiveness 2016

17 Specialised hay production systems Dedicated hay growers high density balers large storage sheds on farm Improved management of weather risks super conditioner mowers for rapid drying fast stack systems steam baling systems can extend baling time during warm weather Preferred hay varieties Agronomy tailored for export hay quality AEXCO 2016

18 Potential new OAT1 production areas with new variety/agronomy packages Current Low area Opportunity Opportunities for med-low RF Cvs. Bannister and Durack targeted agronomy Medium area High area

19 Challenges vs. opportunities Volatility under / over supply feed market is limited Competitors Chile 700mm rainfall 3 t/ha 5 t/ha last 10yr Market concentration Diversify export destinations International oat price International wheat price Source:

20 1. Changing dietary habits in Asia are creating new opportunities. it s a long term upward trend! 2. Seasonal volatility in oat production and pricing should dampen in the medium term 3. Successful oat production can increase profits and reduce risks in the short term more focus on how to grow oats rather than how to focus on growing more oats in the medium term reliable high quality oat production is likely to expand beyond traditional areas Contact: robert.loughman@agric.wa.gov.au munro.patchett@gilmac.com.au

21 The oat industry opportunity is in your hands