13 March Prepared by. Karvy Comtrade Ltd Hyderabad

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1 13 March 2009 Cotton Seasonal Report Update 2009 Prepared by Karvy Comtrade Ltd Hyderabad

2 COTTON Cotton report for season was released in the first week of January 2009 with extensive coverage of supply and demand factors at domestic and global level. The medium term targets mentioned in the early report have already been achieved (Cotton lint prices forecasted to Rs19000 per candy and Kapas khali forecasted at Rs ). This report updates the readers about current scenario of market and price forecasts till end of cotton season on 30 th September Overview Cotton accounts for 40 percent of total global fiber production and most important fiber in the world. India has emerged as a major player in the world cotton market in recent years after overtaking US in production to become second largest producer in It has also emerged as largest exporter in recent years with its surplus output. Cotton covers about 7 percent of total kharif crop acreage and second to rice in India. Cotton textile is one of largest industry in India and provides employment to over 15 million people. Market review The year 2008 has seen biggest price movement in history of cotton. At NYBOT, cotton futures traded in the range of cents per pound with movement of cents in Cotlook A Index also moved in wide range of cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index made a high of 82.5 cents, while, ICE cotton futures recorded a 13-year high of cents per pound in the month of March However, the record prices are not able to sustain for long period and slumped below 40 cents by November month as US financial crisis surfaced in this period. In domestic markets, cotton lint prices (Shankar 6) made all time high of Rs per candy in August 2008, an increase of 54% from a year ago. And also, it fell by 30 percent within short period of 3 months (Sep-Nov 2008) to Rs21000 per candy with sharp decline in exports fueled by global financial slowdown. In 2009, domestic cotton prices declined further below Rs20000 per candy due to sharp decline in export demand. However, in the last couple of weeks, prices have seen recovery due to revival in demand from domestic mills in spite of slow export demand. At global level in 2009, Cotlook A Index fell to 4 years low of 50 cents and ICE cotton futures trading in the range of cents per pound.

3 World cotton Area under cotton across world has been stagnant for last five decades, however, production has been increased due to sharp rise in yields. World cotton area is stagnant in small rage of million hectares and registered 0.07 percent growth during Global cotton output has increased at annual growth of 1.88 percent in the same period and recorded highest output of million tonnes in From 9.8 million tonnes in , the world cotton production has increased to 26 million tonnes in recent years. Figure 1: World Area and Production of Cotton Source: USDA. *Estimates for released by USDA in March 11 th Cotton output is almost stagnant around 26 million tonnes in the past couple of years after robust growth in last few decades. The declining area under cotton in recent years leading fall in output as most of farmers in developed countries like US are shifting to more profitable crops. The USDA, in its report released on 11 th December, forecasted world cotton output at million tonnes in , a decline of 9.8 percent from last year. These production forecasts are lowest in last five years. The biggest fall in output is seen US, where output has been estimated lower at 2.84 million tonnes in compared to 4.18 million tonnes in last year. The latest output forecast for are low for most of the cotton growing countries including India.

4 Table 1: World cotton scenario Area (MM Ha) Beg. stocks (MMT) Production (MMT) Imports (MMT) MMT: Million metric tonnes Total supply (MMT) Exports (MMT) Year * Source: USDA. *Estimates for released by USDA in March 11 th Table 2: Major cotton-producing countries (million metric tonnes) * China India United States Pakistan Brazil Uzbekistan Turkey Other Total Source: USDA. *Estimates for released by USDA on March 11 th. Cotton output has increased significantly in developing countries like China, India, Brazil and Pakistan in this decade. The rapid domestic growth rate of the developing countries and the use of improved varieties have led to a sharp rise in output in these countries. On the other hand, production in developed countries like Australia and the US has marginally declined during the same period. China is the largest producer of cotton and contributes to one-third of the total global output. India and the US are the other major producers, together having a share of 33% of the total world production. These three major countries produce nearly three-fourths of the world output. India has overtaken the US in terms of output during

5 Figure 2: Approximate share of cotton-production countries Note: Percentage share as per March 11 th USDA forecasts The share of total global cotton of India has increased to 21 percent in compared to 18 percent in last year. An increase in area and a rising Bt cotton cultivation in India has led to a sharp rise in output in the last few years. In spite of being the largest producer, China has ended up as a net importer due to large domestic consumption. It consumes about 38% of the total global consumption. Other major consumers are India and Pakistan. Developing countries use most of the cotton produced given the higher population and usage of cotton-based materials. India cotton: Demand-supply dynamics The cotton-based industry is the largest among agro-industries in India. Cotton is the most important cash crop in India and it makes a significant contribution to the national economy. Being a supplier of raw materials for the textile industry, it also plays a vital role in the Indian economy. Besides contributing to the country s textile industry growth, it also earns precious foreign exchange for the country from the export of raw cotton and finished goods. Cottonseed is the world s second most-used oilseeds for culinary purposes, and the oil cake residue is a protein-rich feed for ruminant livestock. Cotton is the most important raw material for India s Rs150,000-crore textile industry. It accounts for nearly 14% of the total national industrial production, 4% of the GDP contribution, and provides employment to over 15 million people. Indian textile exports were about $21.46 billion in The textile industry size is expected to touch $115 billion by 2012.

6 Cotton supply in India The area under cotton in India has been growing at a slower pace in this decade. The highest area sown was in , when it touched as high as 9.6 million hectares. During last five decades, the area under cotton has been in the range of million hectares. Cotton area has grown at 0.27 CAGR since 1960 and 1.83 percent in last 8 years. In the recent years, farmers in India are preferring cotton crop due to better returns and also irrigation facilities. Technological improvement in cotton seed is favorable for the farmers. The yield of cotton has almost doubled in last one decade from just 302 kgs per hectare to 600 kgs per hectare. The highest ever yield has been recorded in Gujarat in at 775 kgs per hectare. India produced a record quantity of 315 lakh bales (5.36 million tonnes) in The sharp rise in output was seen from onwards with the adoption of more Bt cotton. According to trade sources, farmers have shifted more than 80% of the area to Bt cotton in major producing states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The low-yielding and short-staple cotton varieties like Kalyan are on the verge of extinction. Figure 3: Indian cotton Area and Production over decades Source: USDA. *Estimates for released by USDA on March 11 th.

7 Table 3: Cotton Growth (CAGR) in India World Area Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Exports consumption Ending stocks Stock to Use % Cotton output has recorded a growth of 3.37 percent since 1960, while in the last 8 years; it grown at percent. The output was below one million tonnes (around 55 lakh bales) and it jumped to 5.5 million tonnes (315 lakh bales) in The largest percentage year on year increase was seen in with 35.7 percent from previous year. In comparison to world cotton scenario, India has done well in all sectors including exports, consumption and imports. The cotton output has been increased by percent during in India, while world market recorded mere 3.68 percent. Import of cotton by India has fallen by percent in last 8 years against increase of 3.24 percent in world market. India has maintained sufficient stocks (growth of 4.42 percent stock to use), while world cotton market faced shortage at the rate of 0.01 percent. Table 4: India cotton production scenario Lakh bales (170 kg per bale) * Area (million hectares) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Exports Total domestic consumption Ending stocks Stock to use (%) Source: USDA. *Estimates for released by USDA on March 11 th.

8 According to USDA report released on 11 th March 2009, Indian cotton output is forecasted to decline marginally in Domestic output estimated at 295 lakh bales down by 6.3 percent from last year. The cotton exports from India is likely to decline from record level of 90 lakh bales exported in to 38 lakh bales in due to economic slowdown across major countries. India will have highest carry forward stocks of 139 lakh bales by end of due to lower domestic consumption and export demand. While, it is likely to maintain the imports at 6 lakh bales in Cotton demand in India As per Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), domestic cotton consumption is expected fall to 230 lakh bales due to domestic economic slowdown. After continuous growth in domestic consumption for four consecutive years, the demand is likely to decline in The demand for cotton has been jumped by 38 percent from to 241 lakh bales in as economy performed well in the last few years. However, the record prices of cotton and weak demand from retail segment and export market is likely to affect the sale of cotton in coming year. Table 5: India cotton balance sheet Quantity in lakh bales of 170 kgs each Particulars SUPPLY Opening stock Crop size Imports TOTAL AVAILABILITY DEMAND Mill Consumption Small-Mill consumption Non-Mill Consumption TOTAL CONSUMPTION Exports TOTAL DISAPPEARANCE CARRY FORWARD Source: Cotton Corporation of India (drawn by Cotton Advisory Board in its meeting on ) State-wise production of cotton Gujarat and Maharashtra are major producers of cotton in India and contribute nearly 60% of the total output. Hot weather and black soil in these states support better growth of cotton. Most of the cotton is cultivated under rain-fed conditions in these states. Andhra Pradesh and Punjab are the other major growing states. Cotton is cultivated under irrigated conditions in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan. The area under cotton significantly increased in major producing states like

9 Gujarat and Maharashtra in , but declined in The sowing was delayed in kharif 2008 due to insufficient rains and in the early stages of crop, it affected the growth. Highest ever yield has been recorded in Gujarat at 774 kgs per hectare, which is well above the national average of 560 kg per hectare. Most of the states have seen falling area under cotton in except Andhra Pradesh. As per Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), Indian cotton output is expected to decline to 290 lakh bales in down by 8 percent from In the current cotton year , the output in Gujarat is estimated at 90 lakh bales against 112 lakh bales in Maharashtra is likely to produce 62 lakh bales, the same as last year, while the output in Andhra Pradesh is estimated at 53 lakh bales. Table 6: Cotton state-wise production Area in lakh hectare/production in lakh bales/yield kgs per hectare * State Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Punjab Haryana Rajasthan North Total Gujarat Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu Others Total Loose Lint Grand Total Source: Cotton Corporation of India (drawn by Cotton Advisory Board in its meeting on ) Figure 4: States share of cotton production

10 Cotton price analysis Seasonality Index in domestic cotton lint prices The seasonality Index constructed for cotton lint prices from to , indicates smooth movement of prices. As every commodity prices trade lower during the arrivals, the cotton prices have also traded weak in peak arrival season. In the domestic markets, the arrivals start from October and peak in Nov Jan period. The seasonality index remained below 100 till April month and moved up to in August, the lean arrival season. Figure 5: seasonality in cotton prices Domestic cotton lint price movement Cotton prices were quite volatile on year on year basis in last one decade. It has averaged above Rs per candy only twice during this period. Highest ever yearly average price recorded in along with record global cotton prices, when NYBOT futures made high of 85 cents per pound. Figure 6: Yearly average prices of cotton lint and percentage change (announced by Cotton Association of India) Source: Cotton Corporation of India

11 The biggest annual rise in prices was seen in with an increase of percent, while biggest crash was in by percent. In , prices rose by percent from and made second high of Rs23216 per candy. Although, domestic output was at record high of 315 lakh bales domestic prices rose sharply in due to strong exports of 90 lakh bales and firm global cotton prices (NYBOT made high of cents per pound). Daily cotton lint prices in recent years ( ) The cotton lint prices provided by MCX for long staple shown in the Figure 7, indicate unprecedented rally in last three years. The cotton prices made all time high of Rs29000 per candy in September 2008 as against Rs16800 in October The biggest rally was seen in cotton year with prices gaining by Rs9000 per candy with in the season. The prices were around Rs20000 per candy in the beginning of cotton season in 2007 and rose to Rs29000 per candy by first week of September. The rally in cotton prices was due to strong export growth in , which rose to 90 lakh bales compared to 58 lakh bales. The domestic demand also increased to 241 lakh bales against 232 lakh bales in However, prices fell sharply within short period of one month to Rs21500 per candy from 2008 high of Rs29000 per candy. The slowdown in exports with financial crisis in US and other major countries and higher crop estimates for this season led to sharp fall in prices. The global cotton prices also plummeted to 18 months low of 40 cents pound. Figure 7: Cotton Lint prices (MCX) Source: Bloomberg

12 Minimum Support Price (MSP) The minimum support price (MSP) is the support price fixed / announced by the central government every year before the start of the season. The MSP change (hike) for raw cotton in season is the biggest-ever in the history of the support price regime, which started in The medium-staple varieties, such as F-414/H-777/J34, have seen a whopping hike of 38.89%, and fixed at Rs2500 per quintal. Meanwhile, the MSP for long-term staple cotton variety, H- 4, has been increased by 47.78% from last year. Table 7: MSP for cotton announced by the central government F-414/H- 777/J34 % Change H-4 % Change ,725 1, , , , , , , , , , , The MSP for the popular variety, Shankar 6, is fixed at Rs2850 per quintal compared to Rs2055 in The major reasons for the unprecedented rise in MSP for the season is the increasing cost of inputs and political factors. The government procurement agency for cotton, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), announced last week that it is likely to increase the procurement quantity in the cotton year, and it may touch 5-10 lakh bales against the 2.5 lakh bales it procured last year. Global cotton price movement Global cotton prices are represented by both ICE cotton (NYBOT) futures and Cotlook A Index. ICE cotton futures was quite volatile in 2008 as prices made third highest ever of cent per pound in March 2008 and fell to 36 cents levels in November month. The Cotton futures at ICE made all time high of cents in April 1995 though production was normal at 18 million tonnes. Cotlook A index, which started in 1993 made all time high of cents in the same time. Apart from this all time high, the cotton prices moved up sharply in 1991 to cents and third highest ever prices was made in Since, data available at ICE (from April 1986), cotton futures fell to cents per pound in October 2001.

13 MSP and its impact on cotton prices For the first time ever, the government increased the MSP for cotton by as much as 40-48% for The CACP (Commission on Agriculture Cost and Prices) is a nodal agency that recommends the MSP for agriculture commodities to the government. For instance, the MSP for the popular variety, Shankar-6, has been fixed at Rs2,850 per quintal against last year MSP of Rs2050 per quintal. The cotton sector, including growers, ginners and the textile industry, faced good times in the season, as every stakeholder achieved better returns due to higher cotton prices and strong export growth. India produced a record quantity of 315 lakh bales and exported a record quantity of 85 lakh bales. The country took advantage of lower US cotton production/exports and strong demand from China last year. However, the scenario changed suddenly in as the global economic crisis led to a sharp fall in demand for commodities, including cotton. Even as prices of cotton fell to its six-year low of 37 cents per pound at ICE, the global demand for cotton failed to pick up in the season. As per market sources, India has exported about lakh bales since beginning of season in October to till end of February 2009 against 60 lakh bales in same period of season. Other global suppliers like US have got benefitted due to higher Indian prices in world cotton market. Cotton procurement operations With higher MSP and weak demand for cotton from export market and domestic mills, Government procurement agencies have purchased record produce in cotton season. The farmers preferred to sell to procurement agencies like CCI and Nafed rather than private buyers due to higher MSP and weak market prices. As per reports, till end of February month, these two agencies have bought lakh bales, which is about 38 percent of total production estimates and 45 percent of total arrivals. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is largest purchaser of cotton, which had bought 82 lakh bales till end of February is likely to make losses worth of Rs2500 crores in its operations. These procurement agencies have offered discounts on its sale price of cotton to offload their produce and have sold about 40 lakh bales till recently. As per CCI data, till 7 th March 2009, total arrivals stood at 238 lakh bales against lakh bales in same period of last year. Average daily raw kapas arrivals have fallen to lakh bales against near 2 lakh bales in mid-february.

14 Kapas Khali (Cotton Seed Oil Cake) Oil meals are one of the important ingredients in cattle feed across the globe. They supplement the required protein to livestock. Different oil meals available across the globe are soy meal, rapeseed meal, groundnut meal, cotton seed oil cake, sunflower meal, copra meal and palm kernel meal. Soy meal has the lion s in total oil meals production. Among the oil meals, cotton seed oil cake or kapaskhali is mainly used as cattle feed where as others are used as poultry feed. Most farm grains and roughages are deficient in the protein necessary for animal maintenance, growth and development. Cottonseed meal, a leading protein supplement, provides the necessary protein to overcome this deficiency and also conserves available supplies of grain and roughages. It furnishes three to six times the protein of most grains and 10 to 20 times that of the lower quality roughages. When used only in the amount necessary to balance a ration, one pound of meal will save two and a half to three pounds of grain. In addition to its high protein content and high energy value, cottonseed meal is higher in phosphorous than any of the other vegetable proteins. Cottonseed meal may be used to some extent in the rations of all classes of livestock. It is sufficient as a sole source of protein for mature ruminants such as beef cattle and sheep and can provide much of the protein for dairy cows. Since it is a natural protein source its nitrogen is effectively utilized and there is little danger of excess ammonia being produced in the rumen or stomach of these cud-chewing animals as sometimes occurs when feeding synthetic protein materials. High quality cottonseed meal, used correctly as an ingredient of properly formulated swine and poultry rations, improves economy and efficiency. Processing of cotton seed Cotton seed Cotton oil seed cake (82-85%) Oil (12-14%) Wastage (3%)

15 Milling and trade Milling of cotton seed starts as soon as cotton season begins in September October. This crushing season continues till June of consecutive year. Crushing of cotton seed ends as soon as monsoon starts. Cotton seed contains 12-14% of oil and 82-85% of cake. Oil is mainly used for edible purpose. Cotton seed oil cake is mainly used for feeding cattle in India. Farmers prefer cotton seed cake compare to other cakes like ground nut cake. Cotton seed cake is less hot than other oil cakes. India consumes most of produce domestically and major consuming states are Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharastra. Cotton Seed Oil Cake or Kapas Khali, a bi-product of cotton or kapas, is the remnants of oil extract. It is obtained from crushing cotton seed separated during the process of ginning. The cotton-seed consists of two parts: the hull, from which the staple cotton lint and linters arise, and the kernel, from which the oil and meal are obtained. The nutritive value of cottonseed products depends on proportions of husks and lint. One ton of seed yields about 200 kg of oil, 500 kg of cottonseed meal and 300 kg of hulls. Although cotton has been grown for its fiber for several thousand years, the use of cottonseed on a commercial scale is of relatively recent origin. In ancient times, it is reported that the Hindus and the Chinese developed crude methods for obtaining oil from cottonseed, using the principle of the mortar and pestle. They used the oil in lamps and fed the remainder of the pressed seed to cattle. For many centuries, however, the use of cottonseed did not develop much beyond that crude stage and was confined to local areas. World cotton oil seed cake supply World cotton oil seed cake output has increased gradually over a period of time. Output of cotton oil seed cake has made all time high of million tonnes in , mainly due to record output of cotton in India. In the past five years, the production sustained above 15 million tonnes except in as cotton output has been increased in recent years. biggest contributors to rise in output of this cake is sharp increase in cotton output in India, which has seen record output of 315 lakh bales in The global trade of cake is limited as largest producers like China, India and Pakistan consume most of the produce domestically with large cattle population. In recent years, world export of cake remained less than 0.5 lakh tonnes. According to recent estimates given by USDA, the global cotton oil seed cake production expected to decline marginally to million

16 tonnes in against million tonnes in The ending stocks are forecasted to fall to five years low of 1.32 lakh tonnes due to lower output seed cake. Table 8: World cotton oil seed cake supply Quantity in 1000 MT Crush(MMT) Beginning stocks Production(MMT) Exports Ending (Lakh Tonnes) (Lakh Tonnes) stocks(lakh Tonnes) Source: USDA Figure 8: Share of major kapas khali producers Australia 1% Turkey 4% Brazil 5% Mexico 1% Share of Major Kapaskhali Producers Syria 1% Others 14% China 27% Uzbekistan 6% United States 8% Pakistan 13% India 20% China is largest producer of cotton oil seed, since it is largest producer of raw cotton. India is second largest producer of cotton oil seed cake and constitutes 20% of total global output. Although, US is second major producer of cotton, it is placed at fourth in production of cotton oil seed cake.

17 India cotton oil cake scenario India produces about 30 million tonnes of oil seeds and cotton seed is largest among all the oil seeds. Cotton seed constitutes 30% of total oil seed output in India followed by soy bean and rapeseed. Cotton seed output has increased in the last few years with increased area and production of cotton. Crushing of cotton seed has almost doubled in the last ten years. Cotton seed crushing was 3.7 million tonnes in , which jumped to 7.6 million tonnes in , but it is expected to decline to 7.20 million tonnes in The major reason for lower production forecasts is fall in cotton output by 8 percent in in India. Table 9: Production of cotton seed oil cake in India Crush (MMT) Production (MMT) Exports(10000 Tonnes) Domestic consumption (MMT) Figure 9: Cocud spot prices (NCDEX Akola) Unit Rs per 50 kgs

18 The year 2008, was bullish year for kapas khali prices, where it made all time high of Rs532 per 50 kgs at Akola. The spot prices were below Rs400 in January 2008 and rallied to this high in the July 2008 on strong demand in domestic markets. the firm cotton and edible oils prices in the first half of the 2008 fueled the rally in kapas khali prices. However, within few months it fell to Rs411 (Oct 08) levels on unsustaining demand at higher levels. The new crop produce, which commenced from November beginned with higher price of Rs520 and thereafter declined to Rs440 in December month. prior to bullish trend in kapas khali, the prices were trading in broad range of Rs per 50 kgs in the last 3-4 years. in 2009, kapas khali prices have once again turned bullish very early even before cotton arrivals ended due to lower cotton output. Demand for kapas khali remain strong in summer season and extend till August month with crushing ends in March. Price outlook for domestic cotton and kapas khali for season Current prices Cotton lint prices are quoting Rs20500 per candy (Shankar-6) across major markets of Gujarat and kapas khali spot prices are quoting at Rs1030 per quintal at Akola. Prices had fallen from Rs23000 per candy in January as below as Rs20000 per candy in February due to weak export demand. As mentioned in the early report, lint prices have fallen to Rs20000 per candy in February. With arrivals falling in spot markets and revival of export demand at these lower prices, we expect prices to move up in coming months. Cotton (Kapas) Long term (till end of cotton season by September 2009): Rs24000 per candy (Shankar 6) NCDEX and MCX kapas (April): Rs per 20 kgs (currently NCDEX Kapas futures trading at Rs470 levels) Kapas khali Long term (till end of cotton season by September 2009): Rs per quintal at Akola NCDEX and MCX: Rs per 50 kgs (Currently NCDEX May-June trading at Rs ) Supportive factors for rise in cotton and kapas khali prices Lean arrivals: Average daily arrivals of raw kapas have fallen to 1 lakh bales. Out of total production estimated (290 lakh bales), 85 percent of produce has been arrived in spot market. Lean arrival phase continue till next crop in October.

19 Incentives for exports: Government has announced series of sops to the export sector including cotton. It announced 5 percent duty incentive on raw cotton exports by including the fiber commodity in the Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana. This incentive scheme applies exports from April to June Government has also announced extension of interest rate subvention till September Global shortage of cotton: World cotton output is forecasted to fall by 9.8 percent and Indian output is estimated to decline by 8 percent in Weakening rupee: The rupee has depreciated by 33 percent since February 2008 and has made all time low of against USD. Depreciation of Rupee is beneficial for the cotton and its products exporters. For every Rupee of depreciation, return on cotton exports gives increment of approximately Rs4000 per candy at current prices. Summer demand: Crushing of cotton seed almost ends in March with end of raw kapas arrivals in market. Demand for kapas khali increases during summer season with lower availability of green grass. Glossary One candy = kgs (apprx 356 kgs) One bale = 170 kgs 100 bales = 48 candy One candy = 2.09 bales One cotton pound = 0.45 kgs Indian cotton season = 1 st October end of September US cotton season = 1 st August end of July Disclaimer The report contains the opinions of the author that are not to be construed as investment advice. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy, and its affiliates, cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information which is believed to be accurate and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of this information. There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. Commodity derivatives trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of the underlying may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their entire original investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, or from, Karvy Comtrade that you will profit or that losses can, or will be, limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. The information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes and not to be construed as investment advice. For a detailed disclaimer please go to following URLs: