Poor harvests will result in a harder lean season in Southeastern Madagascar

Transcription

1 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 Poor harvests will result in a harder lean season in Southeastern Madagascar KEY MESSAGES Although it is the beginning of the harvest period, food prices remain high in all parts of the country following the agricultural season s below-average production. Prices of local rice in Mahajanga and Toamasina, areas that were severely impacted by dryness, rose by 28 to 38 percent between 2016 and Nevertheless, prices started to decline by 14 to 21 percent within the same period in other urban areas such as Ihosy and Fianarantsoa where production was near average and the harvest was beginning. Current food security outcomes for 2017 Based on USDA FEWS NET Crop Tour findings regarding the progress of cropped areas and received rainfall, overall national rice production is estimated at around 3.2 million MT which is 20 percent lower than the 5-year average (4 million MT), and 15 percent lower than last year. Maize production is estimated at around 350,000 MT which is 6 percent below the 5-year average and 10 percent higher than last year. Cassava production will likely be around 3 million MT, which is near the 5-year average and 15 percent higher than last year. The Southeast of Madagascar (Livelihood Zone 19), that is already chronically vulnerable to food insecurity and poverty, was affected consecutively by multiple hazards this year: severe dryness since the end of 2016 and then floods following Cyclone Enawo in This negatively impacted household livelihoods and FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPCcompatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. crop production and lead to a current situation of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, in a month when the main harvest is taking place. In addition, the district of Vangaindrano was affected by a tornado in, which damaged many fruit and clove trees. The situation in the far South (particularly Livelihood Zone 24) has improved compared to last year but remains in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Many households have made some recovered from the past three years of consecutive drought, and although the weather conditions were favorable for agriculture, farmers could not fully plant because of lack of agricultural inputs that were depleted during the years of drought. Thus, staple production is higher than last year but remains below average. In cyclone affected areas, people have recovered from the effects of Cyclone Enawo, particularly with the help of humanitarian assistance. These areas have shifted into Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity although food supply is still below normal and prices remain high. FEWS NET Madagascar fewsinquiry.madagascar@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Seasonal progress Cropped areas: In central Madagascar, 90 percent of agricultural land was cropped due to dryness at the time of planting, and the area only received 40 percent of average rainfall during the growing season. Some large producing areas in Boeny and Alaotra Mangoro were more affected and received less rainfall leading to farmers only planting 50 percent of their land. In the Southeast (including Fort Dauphin) farmers planted 60 percent of their land, while farmers in Ihorombe, Haute Matsiatra that were less affected could plant more. In total, roughly 80 percent of rice fields in Madagascar were cultivated, while 50 percent of land for maize was planted in the South. However, cassava fields were expanded. In Anosy Region, when rain finally arrived in march, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) incited farmers to expand the cropped areas. They helped farmers with land labor. This allowed to labor 100 ha more of cropped rice field. MoA also provided 5 MT of subsidized improved seeds which come from Tsiroanomandidy (west Antananarivo) but the use is still very low. Only 5 percent of farmers use improved seeds in that region. Export cash crops: Vanilla, litchis and cloves have the largest share of Madagascar s export value and are currently selling at high prices on international markets. However, production this year is below average because of damages, caused by Cyclone Enawo in the Northeast, and by flooding and an uncommon tornado in the Southeast. Domestic prices of coffee are currently higher than international prices, having doubled compared to last year. Production has decreased due to various hazards in the southeastern Madagascar. Crop production: Based on USDA FEWS NET Crop Tour findings regarding progress of cropped areas and received rainfall, overall national rice production is estimated at around 3.2 million MT which is 20 percent lower than the 5-year average, estimated at 4 million MT, and 15 percent lower than last year. Rice production has reduced in west, middle-west, north-central and east parts of Madagascar. It remained relatively stable in south-central and southwestern parts. Average yield of rice in Madagascar is 3.1 MT per hectare. It is likely reduced with the insufficient rainfall. In Anosy region for instance, rice yield may reach 2.5 MT per hectare in a good year; this year, the regional department of Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2 MT per hectare because of the delay in rains, say 25 percent of decrease. Maize production: is estimated at around 350,000 MT which is 6 percent below the 5-year average and 10 percent higher than last year. Maize production has increased in the South compared to last year although remaining below normal. Elsewhere, production remain the same as last year. Average yield of maize in Madagascar is 1.8 MT per hectare. It is most likely near average. Projected food security outcomes, 2017 Projected food security outcomes, FEWS NET classification is IPCcompatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. Cassava production: will likely be around 3 million MT, which is near the 5-year average and 15 percent higher than last year. It has increased in southern Madagascar and slightly decreased in Southeastern. Production from the central highland remined stable. Average yield will remain at 7.4 MT per hectare. Livestock: Livestock herd sizes have started to improve in Southern Madagascar. Decapitalization has reduced. Overall, the cattle population most likely above 6.5 million in Livestock prices also improved which are favorable to pastoralists. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Markets and trade Rice imports: Rice imports have intensified: current estimates from Madagascar Customs give a total volume of 173,000 MT of rice imports during the first semester of This accounted for 43 percent of expected imports this year and 5 percent of national production. This is also 7 percent above the five-year average and about double of last year s rice imports within the same period. The increase in rice imports has been driven by the expected lower domestic production and the stability of the Malagasy Ariary in recent months. According to the Observatoire de Riz (OdR) Horizon, the retail price of imported rice has been higher than the parity price (IPP) during the first quarter of 2017, and this was favorable to imports. Meanwhile, domestic demand for imported rice has risen as prices of other local staples such as maize and cassava also increased. The price of imported rice is currently 20 percent above the average at all markets particularly in urban markets, except in Antananarivo where it is at average levels. Prices for locally grown food products: Globally, prices of maize and local rice slightly decreased between and As for local rice, the average price in 13 markets was MGA 1,623 due to the decreasing prices in Antsirabe because of the beginning of harvest in the region of Vakinakaratra. Particularly, this region received sufficient rainfall this year, despite a delay in their start. Rice prices are 20 to 30 percent higher than the average due to expected lower production at the national level. As for maize, the average price has levelled at MGA 870 per kilo. In general, it is 25 percent less than in mid-. All markets showed a decrease except Tsihombe and Toamasina I. Other maize production is coming from communes where the cropping season was delayed due to the delay of rain at the beginning of the year. As maize was used as the main substitute of rice, maize prices also increased and were 41 percent higher than average. Prices of maize particularly doubled in this time in Antsirabe I, Toamasina I and Tsihombe. However, they are equal to the 5-year average in Ihosy and in Morodnava, and lower than the average in Amboasary. Prices for dried cassava remained stable in Fianarantsoa and dropped in Tsihombe. Its price in Antananarivo and Antsirabe is very unstable and is increasing in Morondava. It increased by 14 percent compared to last month and by 32 percent compared to the 2012 to 2014 average. The USDA FEWS NET Crop Tour mission in in the South revealed an insufficient supply of rice and maize in Fort Dauphin, Ambovombe and Tsihombe markets. However, pulses had started to flow in these markets. Other key factors Humanitarian assistance: Emergency plan ended in 2017 for El-Nino affected regions. The same for areas affected by cyclone Enawo. A new plan is being developed with the completion of the National IPC Analysis in 2017 targeting 262,800 persons in emergency of which 142,064 in the South and 120,736 in the Southeast; and 804,600 in crisis of which Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 1/4/2010 5/4/2010 9/4/2010 1/4/2011 5/4/2011 9/4/2011 1/4/2012 5/4/2012 9/4/2012 1/4/2013 5/4/2013 9/4/2013 1/4/2014 5/4/2014 9/4/2014 1/4/2015 5/4/2015 9/4/2015 1/4/2016 5/4/2016 9/4/2016 1/4/2017 5/4/2017 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to ,528 in the South and 364,072 in the Southeast. This plan mainly includes early recovery activities in short term such as immediate rehabilitation activities in pockets of nutritional and food vulnerability, livelihood and/or assets strengthening of livelihoods and / or assets, agricultural revival synchronized with seed protection measures to take advantage of the off-season crop while enhancing improved short-cycle varieties adapted to the conditions Agroecology, strengthening of income-diversification activities (short-cycle farming through close monitoring of animal health, fishing), promotion of post-harvest activities (drying, processing, conservation). In the medium term, the plan will prioritize the scaling up projects for community assets construction or rehabilitation through food / cash-for-work projects, the promotion of good nutrition and hygiene practices programs to manage acute malnutrition, the nutritional supplementation activities through programs to prevent chronic malnutrition and WASH activities related to food security and nutrition. Assumptions The most likely scenario for the 2017 to 2018 period is based on the following national level assumptions: Figure 1. Value of the Malagasy Ariary compared to the US dollar (MGA/USD) over time Source: Central Bank of Madagascar Figure 2. Evolution of rice imports in first semesters from 2012 to 2017 (MT) Upcoming rainy season: According to NMME probabilistic forecasts for Africa, rainy season is expected to be normal to above normal starting in in Southern and Southeastern Madagascar. It is most likely normal to below normal in central highlands between and Agricultural Production: Main rice harvest is currently taking place throughout Madagascar and is expected to be below average and delayed compared to normal. Maize harvest is also taking place and production is expected to be higher than last year but remains below average. Most of the cassava harvest is expected in - and production is expected to be near normal. Cash crops: Cash crops in eastern Madagascar (Vanilla, cloves, litchi) will suffer from the recent rainfall deficit and floods in many districts; and tornado in Vangaindrano. Production will be below average for all of them. Prices will remain higher than normal particularly for coffee and vanilla. However, higher prices will not compensate for the loss of quantity that poor farmers will be able to sell during ML2. Livestock: With the wet season, pastures normally tend to be reduced. Some transhumance and temporary migrations to higher lands will be noticed in the Southern and Western parts of Madagascar by the end of. Then, pastoralists should come back to their origin places with the start of rainy season. Households will continue restoring their livestock herds. Herd sizes will improve but will still below average * Source: OdR Horizon Bulletin Figure 3. Local rice prices (% change of 2017 compared to 5-year average) /OdR/SISAV Labor income and availability: Agricultural labor will be near average with the expected weather favorable to agriculture starting in. Nonagricultural labor will be below average particularly labor in export manufacture due to reduction in Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 cash crop production. Labor wages will remain stable. Brickyard, fishing and handcraft activities will be above, because households will intensify them as livelihood strategies. Macroeconomic context and imports: An increase of rice imports is expected promoted by the stability of the Ariary/US Dollar exchange rate and the low domestic rice production. More than 400,000 MT of rice is expected to be imported this year which is the double of the quantity of last year. This may stabilize the prices of both local and imported rice on the market from 2017 to Cereal prices: Globally, the price of local rice is expected to remain stable at higher levels until. Prices may increase to over 2,000 Ariary per kilo, according to the price projections in the southeast and some urban areas such as Mahajanga and Toamasina. Prices of maize will continue increasing in the South until. Prices of cassava will probably decrease during ML1 until the end of harvest in, then it will increase again but will be below last year levels. Livestock prices: Following the trends of the two last years, prices of both cattle and small ruminants will stabilize during ML1 and then increase again during ML2 with better pastoral conditions and stock recovery by households. Livestock sales will probably be intensified during the lean season. Locusts: Following the favorable weather conditions in the south for locust breeding, large swarms are most likely to form in some districts. This may affect the next plantation of cereals and legumes. Humanitarian Assistance: Humanitarian assistance through WFP and FAO through implementation partners will probably lead toward some districts where pockets of food insecurity crisis is still found such as in Beloha, Tsihombe, Betioky, Beheloka and Amboasary. However, the coverage may be less than 25 percent of total population. Nutrition: Following normal trends, GAM will increase in the Southeast due to the end of harvest period. It will remain stable in the South with the maintaining of prevention and treatment programs and in other parts of Madagascar. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes In the Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock rearing livelihood zone (MG 24), food insecurity is expected to be reduced with the coming harvest but remain high with the below-average production on food and incomes sources. As a result of this, and winding down of food assistance distribution from 2017 with the end of emergency plan, households will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with some pocket of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in some communes of Beloha and Tsihombe. Food security outcomes are expected to improve for most between and with the cassava harvest and greater labor opportunities. However, the recovery process will be slowed by below-normal staple food production and agricultural incomes and assets (ex. livestock) that were depleted during the second part of the period with the early beginning of the lean season. Thus, most households in this livelihood zone will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between and 2017 and in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between 2017 and In the Southeast: coffee, litchis, cassava (MG 19), rainfall deficits delayed the rice planting in this area. This area is highly dependent on cash crop (litchis, cloves or coffee) which are normally harvested from to but whose production is also reduced. This zone is characterized by high rate of poverty and large size of households and high risk of malnutrition. The high economic vulnerability of households in MG 29 was aggravated with recent high level of food prices on the markets earlier this year. This will make this area experience worse outcomes this year than usual and may experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from to with a pocket of crisis in Vohipeno, and then Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between 2017 and In the Southwest: cassava and small ruminants (MG 23), less humanitarian assistance such as food, cash and seeds than in MG 24 were distributed. This elevated the levels of food insecurity there, particularly with the early exhaustion of household food stocks, the reduction of livestock herds, and high prices of cassava and maize on local markets. The area also received irregular Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 rainfall, which was not favorable to agricultural development. Therefore, most households in that zone will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from to 2017, with some pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in some communes such as Beheloka. And in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from 2017 to Households throughout Madagascar, despite the expected failure of rice crop production which will mostly affect poor urban households, households will continue to have relatively normal access to food due to normal income levels, crops from own production and regular market supplies from 2017 harvests and rice imports. As a result, the majority of the country will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between and AREAS OF CONCERN Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock rearing livelihood zone (MG 24) This zone is located in the southernmost part of the country and is known for being the country s driest (semi-arid) area, with an average rainfall of only 300 mm/year in southern areas. The zone is typically a cassava surplus producing zone and is the country s highest producer of dried cassava. Maize production is the second most important crop in the zone, and is more often sold for cash rather than consumed on the farm. Rice is by far the least common crop in the zone. Typically, poor households hold less than a half hectare of land and fewer than five small ruminants. Current Situation Figure 4. Location of the Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock rearing livelihood zone Agricultural production: The USDA FEWS NET Crop Tour Mission in early reported that only 60 percent of maize fields were cropped in LHZ 24 this year due to insufficient seeds when rains came. Nevertheless, cropped areas this year are three times that of last year. However, due to attacks by defoliating caterpillar in some localized areas of Ambovombe, Tsihombe and Beloha, production was significantly less than expected As for cassava, cropped areas increased and crops are currently at their final development stage and prospects are good. The sweet potato harvest started in late, and although cropped areas also increased, some were attacked by pests, leading to below normal production. For two years now, a seed producer platform named CTAS (Le Centre Technique Agricole du Sud) has tried to introduce new more drought-resistant crops to South Madagascar, such as millet and sorghum. This year, the center helped leading farmers to produce around 60 MT of millet seeds. The NGO also tries to promote the consumption of these new crops with culinary demonstration, and their sale at the markets is expected to start next year. The cropping season for pulses has just started. Cropped areas were also limited due to lack of seeds in the markets, which were sold at unusually high prices of 4,000 ariary per kilos at the market of Amboasary in early. Most farmers shifted to sweet potatoes and skipped the planting season of beans. Household food stock availability: Stocks from the - harvest did not last for long due to insufficient production and need for cash among farmers after the drought of the past 3 years. According to the Multicluster Assessment in 2017, only 7 percent of households in Amboasary still had stocks of staple foods in. Particularly for maize, stocks are already exhausted. More than half of cereals and tubers consumed by HH come from markets. However, the share of food from own production is increasing (15 percent in, compared to 3 percent in ). Humanitarian assistance: In line with the Emergency response plan, relief assistance finished in The emergency plan ended and an early recovery plan is being developed with the completion of the National IPC Analysis in Overall delivered emergency food assistance since 2016 covered more than 70 percent of total population. In Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to , more than 25 percent of households in Tsihombe and Beloha still benefitted from WFP and CRS Food For Work. FAO continued to assist off-season activities in Ambovombe. Figure 5. Cassava crop in Maroalimainty, Ambovombe, 2017 Labor incomes and availability: SISAV data revealed in 2017 that daily wage labor stated at 3,000 Ariary in all districts in LHZ 24 except in Tsihombe where daily wage is higher, around 4,000 Ariary due to more demand for pastoral labor since. Labor is currently available for the harvest period. Particularly for rice in Ambosaray and Fort-Dauphin, the demand for agricultural labor increased because of rice harvests and pulses cropping. In Amboasary, sisal plots increased and are offering more labor opportunities to local inhabitants. Livestock health and herd sizes: Currently, households in LHZ 24 own on average 2 oxen, one sheep, more than one goat and 3 chicken. Livestock health is good after the sufficient rains since the beginning of the year. Leaves from cactus, and recent harvests of maize and sweet potatoes are available and make the breeding season easier. Herd sizes increased with the regions slow economic recovery., USDA Figure 6. Prices of staple foods (MGA) in Ambovombe Market Prices of staple foods and markets: Markets in LHZ 24 were well 1400 supplied with maize, sweet potatoes and pulses in early However, little local rice was found at the markets as the cropping season was delayed in Anosy and upper Androy (Bekily). Particularly in Ambovombe market, local rice was sold at 1,575 Ariary per kilo, like last year, which is 11 percent higher than the average. Dried cassava was hard to find in this market but prices of fresh cassava were 40 percent less than Local rice Fresh Cassava Maize Sweet potatoes last year and remained 20 percent higher than Average ( ) average. Prices of maize were 25 percent less than last year but Source: OdR/FEWSNET and SISAV remain 7 percent higher than the average. Potatoes started to enter the markets in early. Like cassava, their prices are 40 percent less than last year but still 50 percent higher than the five-year average. Livestock prices: SISAV data revealed that livestock prices are rising in LHZ 24. Compared to last year, the average price of a cow doubled in 2017 to around 765,000 Ariary. Similarly for small ruminants, the price of goats has sharply increased since 2017, costing around 100,000 Ariary in 2017, which is 143 percent higher than last year at the same period. The increase of livestock prices is driven by the good body conditions of cattle on one hand, but also to the reduction of livestock sales as households are restoring their herds after many years of depletion. Supply at markets is low as regional economic recovery occurs. Food consumption: According to the Multi-sectoral Assessment conducted by the CRIC (Committee de Reflexion des Intervenants en Urgence) in 2017 in the South, roughly 25 percent of households in this zone had a poor Food Consumption Score (FCS) in LHZ 24. The situation differs within the districts: food consumption is rather borderline in Ambovombe and Bekily districts while poor in Beloha, Amboasary and Fort Dauphin districts. The worst food consumption was found in Tsihombe District where 50 percent of households still had a poor Food Consumption Score. These situations were similar to late The current situation may be better as it moves towards the off-season harvest. Like in, households in LHZ 24 currently eat maize (approximately half of households) as their primary food due to harvest time, even if their preferred food is rice (75 percent prefer rice). Half of them ate pulses. Less than one fifth were able to eat dairy products. One forth ate meat and fish, and almost all of them ate green leaves and vegetables. The USDA FEWS NET crop tour in also reported a small consumption of cactus but in general, consumption of wild foods has been reduced compared to late Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 The Household Hunger Scale (HHS) obtained with that survey showed a moderate hunger for one fourth of households in the zone. Figures 7, 8. Evolution of livestock prices since 2015 (1,000 MGA) in MG 24 Livelihoods Change: In 2017, the three first sources of income for households in LHZ 24 were daily labor (by 23 percent of households), sale of small ruminants and poultry (by 21 percent), and sale of offseason crops and agricultural products (by 16 percent) from the latest harvests. Less than 10 percent of household heads were traders. In, daily labor remained the first source of income with the intensification of harvest, planting and livestock activities. Sales of animals have decreased and sales of agricultural products have increased. As usual, fishing activities have been reduced in compared to late and are currently practiced by only 3 percent of households. Nutrition and mortality: According to the latest SMART surveys, the nutritional situation in LHZ 24 shows a mean of 9.7 percent GAM with a higher prevalence in Beloha and Ambosaray and a lower one in Tsihombe, Ambovombe and Fort-Dauphin. This situation mainly result from regular screenings, preventing programs and severe malnutrition treatments done by the MoH, ORN and UNICEF since last year. All identified cases were taken in charge with Plumpy Nut and Plumpy Doz. Many awareness raising broadcasts were also done on the radio to remind older people to avoid eating items dedicated only to undernourished children Nevertheless, stunting in the LHZ 24 remains high and rates are above the emergency level of 40 percent in three districts (47.7 percent in Amboasary, 42.9 percent in Fort- Dauphin and 42.0 percent in Tsihombe). Only Beloha is in alert level with 31 percent of stunting rate. Amboasary and Tsihombe are also above emergency threshold for underweight with 40.3 percent and 32.2 percent underweight children. Crude rate of mortality in LHZ 24 is around 0.7 death among 10,000 persons. It varies between 0.4 in Fort Dauphin and Amboasary to 1.04 in Tsihombe.Regarding children under five mortality, around 0.8 death among 10,000 were observed in LZH 24. It varies from 0.6 in Beloha and Tsihombe to 1.08 in Fort Dauphin COW GOAT Source: SISAV data Assumptions The most likely scenario for the 2017 to 2018 period is based on the following zone level assumptions: Upcoming rainy season: The rainy season normally starts on s. Based on the to 2017 NMME probabilistic forecasts, near-average rainfall is expected for southern Madagascar. This will be favorable for an on-time start to the agricultural season. Household food stock availability: Stocks will be restored between and during the harvest and then will decline until the end of the outlook period. As normal, households stocks of staple foods may last for about three months due to the generally good harvest of maize, cassava and sweet potatoes. Staple food prices: the integrated price projection for Ambovombe market, the reference market for maize in LHZ 24, suggests that the price of maize is likely at its lowest level in and will remain roughly stable until when the offseason harvest is done. Prices will start increasing in and reach a peak in. This year, prices will follow this normal seasonality with higher levels within the outlook period. The price of key substitutes such as rice or cassava also Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8

9 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 follow the seasonal patterns of maize: lower level from to and higher levels from to. Prices of rice and cassava are expected to be above normal but below last year. Figure 9. Integrated price projection of maize in Ambovombe Labor incomes and availability: Following the normal trend, labor wages will be slightly above 3,000 Ariary per day until, then they will decrease as labor availability will be near normal with the coming crop harvest and pastoralist activities during ML1 as well as in ML2 with land preparation and the cassava/cereal planting, provided rains come on time in -. Source: FEWSNET Food consumption trends/patterns: Food consumption will consist mainly of maize and sweet potatoes until, then fresh cassava from to. The lean season will start on time in where poor household will mainly eat dried cassava. Like in 2013 (similar situation before the series of drought years), when 15 percent of households living in LHZ 24 experienced poor Food Consumption Score, 35 percent had borderline Food Consumption Score and half of households had acceptable Food Consumption Score. It is likely that the situation will be similar from to For ML2, a higher percentage will have poor and borderline consumption as the lean season begins. Livestock herds and prices: With the good rain this year, pastures are fine for livestock during ML1. Households started restoring their livestock after heavy depletion the last few years, so herds are expected to increase even if funeral ceremonies (when many livestock are killed) are expected from to. Prices will depend on the reproductive cycles (small ruminants breed twice/year, giving births in and Dec, cattle only once, usually in ) but will remain high with the better pastoral conditions. The settlement of the BOVIMA slaughter-house is in process in Fort- Dauphin. It will be functioning soon to export red meat to the Comoros and Arabic countries and may drag livestock price higher than usual. Nutrition trends: GAM and stunting will remain at current levels, which is quite normal in the South, expect in some areas chronically prone to malnutrition such as in the commune of Anjampaly in the district of Tsihombe. Stakeholders in the nutrition cluster have already taken actions toward the latest results with informative broadcasts and preventative measures to avoid a deterioration of the situation. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Food insecurity is expected to be reduced with the coming harvest but remain high with the below-average production of food and incomes sources. Because of this, and with the diminished of food assistance distribution from 2017 with the end of emergency plan, households will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2) with some pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in some communes of Beloha and Tsihombe. Food security outcomes are expected to improve for most between and with the cassava harvest and higher labor opportunities. However, the recovery process will be slowed by belownormal staple food production and agricultural incomes and assets (ex. livestock) that were depleted during the second part of the period with the entrance to lean season. Thus, most households in this livelihood zone will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between and 2017 and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between 2017 and Livelihood Zone 19: Southeast (coffee, litchi, cassava) Livelihood zone 19 is rich in fish resources, precious wood and mineral resources (gold, precious stone, and ilmenite). Rainfall varies from 1,700 to 3,500 mm per year with humidity of 80 per cent between and. The area is characterized by two seasons: a warmer season called Vatomandry or Tsipala from to and a drier season called Hosy from to. Agricultural plots are relatively small but geographically dispersed because of the topography and the availability of water. Main crops are coffee, cloves, litchi, vanilla and pepper meant to export to other regions or to Indonesia. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 9

10 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 Current Situation Main crop production: This year, the main rice season which usually starts in was compromised due to absence of rainfall at the beginning of the year. The vatomandry rice which should be the main rice harvest in LHZ 19 failed this year. Only 70 percent of rice fields were cropped and yield was very low. Rice production in LHZ 19 is estimated at 90,000 MT for the 2016/2017 cropping season. From -, cash crops such as litchi already experienced these bad weather conditions, which resulted in unexportable fruits because their small size. Price of staple food and markets: Normally, the area is a net importer of rice. Supplementary rice arrives from the regions of Haute Matsiatra and Amoron'i Mania to the fill the gaps on main markets in Mananjary, Manakara, Farafangana, Vangaindrano and on most rural markets. Markets in LHZ 19 are only supplied with rice and fresh cassava during the first semester of 2017 and usually, rice prices are at the lowest in. It peaks twice a year ( and ) and slightly low in. This year, rice prices are 30 percent higher than the two-year-average and 36 percent higher compared to last year. As for cassava, the main substitute of rice in the zone, prices are also 40 percent higher than the two-year-average and 36 percent higher compared to last year. This is affecting household food consumption and weakening their purchasing power. Figure 10. Location of the Southeast: coffee, litchi, cassava livelihood zone Cash crop production and prices: From , cash crops such as litchi had already experienced bad weather conditions which resulted in un-exportable fruits because of their small size. This reduced income levels of poor households. As for pepper, prices vary a lot. After a maximum in 2015, prices remained between 7,000 and 12,000 Ariary per kilo in 2016 and This year, prices are 20 percent lower than last two-year average and of last year s prices. However, prices of coffee have remained relatively stable between 2,900 and 3,800 Ariary per kilo, though prices rose this year, particularly in Vangaindrano, and stand at 20 percent higher than last year and 24 percent over last two-year average. This resulted in the same level of producer income as last year. Cloves are also an important cash crop in the area specifically in Vangaindrano with a harvest expected in -. In 2017, most clove trees in that district were damaged by an uncommon tornado. Labor availability and prices: Lower cash crop and staple food production resulted in lower labor demand as labor is mainly needed at the harvest stage. Nevertheless, labor prices in LHZ 19 slowly increased by 10 percent this year compared to last year. In 2017, labor price in LHZ 19 was at 3,000 ariary in all districts except in Farafangana where it was 2,500 Ariary. Livestock: Small-scale breeding is practiced in low numbers and in traditional ways. Cattle size is not very important in LHZ 19 although it is necessary for rice field preparation. One household owns less than one zebu on average. The main factors hampering livestock activity are insecurity and inadequate supply of prophylactic products for the control of diseases. However, for poultry, the situation is not stable. In 2017, one household owned 3 poultry on average compared to 8 poultry one year ago. The reduction in numbers of poultry per household is due to large sales. Meanwhile, kept bees were affected by diseases due to the dryness. Current Food consumption: The Multi-sectoral Assessment conducted by the CRIC (Committee de Reunion Inter Cluster) in 2017 in the Southeast showed that 12 percent of households in LHZ 19 had a poor Food Consumption Score, 46 percent had borderline Food Consumption Score and 42 percent of households had an acceptable Food Consumption Score. The situation in may be better with the coming harvest of rice in the surroundings districts such as Vondrozo and Midongy or in other Regions such as Ihorombe and Haute Matsiatra. Fishing: Fishing is also very traditional, especially in terms of material means. It is at normal level in Wild food consumption was intensified due to unaffordable food on the markets and depletion of stocks. Normally all households prefer eating rice, but in more than one third of them mainly ate unripe breadfruit, particularly in the districts of Vangaindrano and Farafangana, and 20 percent mainly ate cassava. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10

11 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance has very low coverage in this part of Madagascar and only was distributed after the Cyclone Enawo. WFP punctually distributed food to more than 4,000 beneficiaries in in the Region of Atsimo Atsinanana with the partnership of WHH, say less than one percent of the population in LHZ 19. Livelihood Change: The main income sources in LHZ 19 are: agricultural labor, sale of staple food, sale of fruits, sale of cash crop, and sale of poultry and honey. Compared to last year, sale of staple food and vegetable has been reduced while handcrafts have been intensified. Sale of poultry and cash crops has been maintained and mining is practiced by minority in the district of Mananjary. As for livelihood strategies, an important proportion of households (16 percent) begged. Few of them (around 6 percent) adopted emergency strategies such as selling their house or land, selling productive assets or animals or practiced illegal activities. Crisis strategies such as temporary migration are more seen. Indeed, 34 percent of households declared to have no income source in Nutrition: The GAM in LHZ 19 in 2017 was high. The screening done by ORN (Regional Office of Nutrition) in Atsimo Atsinanana and Vatovavy Fitovinany gave a prevalence of 13.0 percent of GAM. Given the downward trend with the coming harvest, even lower, GAM in 2017 stands near 10 percent. Assumptions The most likely scenario for the period is based on the following zone level assumptions: Main crop production: Given the insufficiency of rainfall and the reduction of cultivated land, rice production will be below average while cassava production will be near normal. Upcoming rainy season: Unusually, rain currently falls in LHZ 19. Forecasts from Meteorology Department and NMME probabilistic predict above normal rain in and normal to above normal rainfall between and Nutrition trends: Since there has been no specific action to treat acute malnutrition, the situation will not improve. Based on last year s trends, GAM prevalence is expected to be stay near 10 percent during ML1 and will be between 10 and 15 percent during ML2. Labor incomes and availability: Rain is expected to be above normal in the time of preparing land for irrigated rice. Forecasted normal to above normal rainfall between and 2017 will be favorable for land preparation for rain fed rice in ML2. However, labor wages will remain low since post-cash crop harvest activities will be reduced. Figure 11. Average price of rice and cassava in LHZ 19 Markets Source: SISAV data Figure 12. Average prices of coffee and pepper in LHZ 19 markets Source: SISAV Data Figure 13. Price of Agricultural Labor in 5 districts of LHZ 19 Source: SISAV Data Famine Early Warning Systems Network ,000 20,000 15,000 10, ,000 - Rice Cassava LHZ Coffee Pepper Farafangana Manakara Mananjary Vangaindrano Vohipeno

12 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 Food consumption trends/patterns: The food consumption will be based on cassava until then green banana, yam and breadfruit until. Rice will be inaccessible for poor households because of generalized rise of prices all around Madagascar. Livestock: As normal, households will intensify poultry breeding for selling to compensate the loss of income in staple food and cash crop sales. Prices of staple foods: According to the trends, rice prices will start to rise again in 2017 and will likely be above the five-year average. Price projections indicate that it will remain close to 1,900 Ariary per kilo during the outlook projection which is 40 percent higher than normal. This will weaken purchasing power of poor households who will be more dependent on markets. Figure 14. Peeling Breadfruit in Faranfanaga Source: FEWSNET Household food stock availability: Stocks is restored in but is below normal, then it will decline sooner than normal until the end of the outlook period. Households stocks of rice may last only one month and that of cassava two months. The lean season may start sooner in. Humanitarian Assistance: Ongoing assistance by WFP/WHH and proposals to support agriculture and food security in this part of Madagascar will not able to cover more than 25 percent of the total population in LHZ 19. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Rainfall deficits delayed the rice planting in this area. This area is highly dependent on cash crops (litchis, cloves or coffee), which are normally harvested in - but whose production is also reduced. This zone is characterized by high rates of poverty and large size of households and high risk of malnutrition. The high economic vulnerability of households in MG 29 was aggravated with recent high level of food prices on the markets in early this year. This will make this area experience worse outcomes this year than usual and may experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from to 2017 with some pocket of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Vohipeno, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between 2017 and 2018 in most of the districts. Other areas of concern: Livelihood Zone 23: Mahafaly Plateau (Cassava) Rainfall in this area was not regular, although sufficient, and it has impacted crops. Production, even if higher than last year, has not improved much, unlike in M 24, however, cassava production is estimated to be near normal. Less humanitarian assistance, such as food, cash and seeds were distributed. This elevated the levels of food insecurity there, particularly with the early exhaustion of household food stocks, the reduced livestock herds, and high prices of cassava and maize on local markets. Therefore, most households in that zone will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from to 2017, with some pocket of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in some communes such as Beheloka. And in Crisis (IPC 3) from 2017 to Large rice producing areas (MG 05 and MG 07) Those zones only received 40 percent of normal rain during the growing season at the beginning of Cropped areas were reduced by 40 percent. In addition, yield fell by 30 percent due to the late and insufficient rainfall. Therefore, rice production which normally Figure 15. Location of the Mahafaly Plateau : Cassava livelihood zone Famine Early Warning Systems Network 12

13 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook 2017 to 2018 provides near 20 percent of national production is expected to be half of normal in these areas. Labor opportunities were reduced and people shifted to brickyard activities earlier than in a normal year. Households also cope by planting vegetables. Food consumption patterns changed with a reduced ratio of rice and an increase in vegetables. Unexpectedly, prices of local rice are increasing in Mahajanga I since 2016 due to insufficient supply of markets in the west. Farmers prefer to keep stocks of their own production rather than selling at the markets. Traders in those regions now are importing local rice from other regions. Price increases in those zones also have impacts on other regions, especially in Antananarivo and other consumption areas where rice became scarce and prices are also staying high. Figure 16. Uncropped rice fields around Antananarivo /USDA Cyclone affected areas (MG 02 and MG 13) People have recovered from the effects of Cyclone Enawo, particularly related to their livelihood activities and with the help of humanitarian assistance. In, WFP with the Partnership of CARE International continued to assist some vulnerable households with food and cash distribution in Antalaha District. UNDP also contributed to clean the town with a cash for work. These areas shift into minimal (IPC 1) acute food insecurity although food supply is still below normal and prices remain high. EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1: Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario. National Areas Events Impact on food security High inflation during ML2 resulted to high increase of rice prices Dramatically deteriorate purchasing power of poor people particularly in urban centers and most economically vulnerable areas such as the southeast areas. MG 24 and MG23 Locusts Expected crops will be reduced although weather good conditions and food insecurity will increase Delayed rainfall Agricultural Labor activities will be reduced and lean season will start sooner. MG 19 Rapid degradation of Acute Malnutrition Unusual dryness beginning in 2017 Vohipeno and Farafangana could be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) Livelihood and income sources of households would be in a serious situation. Coupled with the bad staple food and cash crop production, food insecurity will increase. ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 13