Farming for change in Africa

Transcription

1 Farming for change in Africa Christian Friis Bach Affiliated Professor University of Copenhagen/LIFE Department of Plant Biology and Biotechnology Institute of Food and Resource Economics The worlds largest challenge Millions of undernourished World Food Summit Base World Food Summit target World Food Summit Source: State of Food Insecurity, 2008, FAO

2 More promises not kept Percentage undernourished Millennium Summit Base Millennium Summit target World Food Summit Millennium Summit Source: State of Food Insecurity, 2008, FAO 1 out of 3 Africans undernourished Source: EarthTrends, 2006 using data from FAO,

3 Agriculture against poverty Poverty Growth (1:2,5) Employment Environment Conflict Source: World Bank (2007): World Development Report What can Africa learn from China? Urban and rural poverty in China Investments Openness ~300 mio. people pulled out of rural poverty during Source: Ravallion, M. (2009): Are there lessons for Africa from China s success against poverty? World Development Report 37(2): ; Ravallion and Chen (2007): China s (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty. Jounal of Development Economics 82(1):

4 Theoretical framework Income distribution Land distribution Human capital distribution Agricultural growth Linkages Demand Wages Non-agricultural growth Income Prices Linkages Poverty reduction Adopted and modified from Luc Christiaensen and Lionel Demery (2008): Down to Earth: Agriculture and Poverty Reduction in Africa. The World Bank. Agriculture key to Millennium Goals in Africa 14 countries 14 countries Source: World Bank as quoted in State of Food Insecurity 2008, FAO

5 Cereal yield and poverty East Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Yields Poverty Poverty Poverty Yields Yields Source: Luc Christiaensen and Lionel Demery (2008): Down to Earth: Agriculture and Poverty Reduction in Africa. The World Bank. Agriculture and conflict Rwanda Conflict causes hunger Hunger can contribute to conflict Agricultural development contributes to conflict prevention Darfur

6 Why not Africa? I was in Washington last year. At the World Bank the first question they asked me was how did you fail? I responded that we took over a country with 85 per cent of its adult population illiterate. The British ruled us for 43 years. When they left, there were 2 trained engineers and 12 doctors. This is the country we inherited. Julius Nyerere New Internationalist Magazine, 309, Cereal yield (kg/hectare) Irrigated land (% of cropland) Share of crop area planted to modern varieties (%) Adult literacy rate (%) Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) Total fertility rate (births per woman) East Asia ,1 Sub-Sharan Africa ,6 Source: Sachs, J.D. (2005): The End of Poverty. Penguin Books. Diverse, dry but not doomed >2000 yrs North/South continent Lack of infrastructure Source: Diamond, J. (1998): Guns, Germs and Steel, Vintage. p

7 Agriculture against all odds Corruption Rich country subsidies Conflict Limited research Heavy taxation Lack of extension Lack of infrastructure Low prices Few investments Food prices higher (index =100) Fødevarer Fødevarer 2008 Korn Korn 2008 Kød Kød 2008 Olie/fedtstof Olie/fedtstof 2008 Supply Food Fodder Biofuels Energy jun 2008 dec 2009 jan 2009 feb 2009 mar Source: FAO, Food Price Indices, January 2009,

8 New challenges: Climate Change Agricultural production in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020 Rain-fed maize yields 2050 Source: IPCC (2007); Gerald Nelson (2009): Results from IMPACT model, 2009, IFPRI Agriculture is part of the problem Region Total GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Share from agriculture Share from land-use change and forestry Europe 7, North America 7, South America 3, Sub-Saharan Africa Asia 14, Developing countries * 22, World 40, Non-annex I Source: World Ressource Institute (2009): Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT),

9 ..but can be an important part of the solution (25) Technical mitigation potential (estimated potential) (60) (49) (109) (22) Mitigation potential in agriculture = 1 to 4 billion t CO2/yr Represents between 11 and 17% of total mitigation potential 70% of mitigation potential is in developing regions (Afrika 17%) Source: Smith et al (2008): Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation in Agriculture, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 363; Bryan et al. (2009): Global Carbon Markets - Are There Opportunities for Sub-Saharan Africa? IFPRI So reasons are plentiful, potential is large Maize yield tonnes per hectare Source: World Bank (2007): World Development Report 2008 Note: Number of plots in parentheses. Open-pollinated varieties (except Nigeria hybrids). Data from

10 It is about innovation High returns But more protection Returns from agricultural R&D (%) Source: USDA, ERS, using data from Huffman and Evenson, 2006 and Fuglie et al.,1996.; Alston et al 2000 quoted in World Bank (2008): WDR. It is about adaptation Maize Variety Maize Variety IB0041 Source: G. Nelson, J. Koo, R. Robertson (2009): Simulating the Yield Consequences of Climate Change: Combining Crop Models with Location-specific Climate and Physical Constraints, EPTD, IFPRI, in draft

11 It is about information Source: World Bank (2008): WDR; E. Evenson et al., Science 300, (2003) It is about infrastructure % of population with access to electricity In many African countries less than 10 percent have access to electricity Post-harvest loss due to lack of storage and processing capacity is more than 10% Source: Africa Commission; World Energy Outlook

12 It is about markets Small-holder participation in Kenya (% of exports) Mid-1980s to early 1990s - Dolan and Humphrey (2001) - Harris (1992) - Kimenye (1995) Fresh fruit/ vegetables 75% 75% 70-80% Cut flowers 10% When the old barriers disappear.. Health standards Environmental standards Technical standards Social responsibility - Jaffee (1999) 50% Late 1990s } - Jensen (2003) - Dolan and Humphrey (2001) 50% 18% 5% Traceability Source: Jensen, M.F. (2004): Food Safety Requirements and Smallholders: A Case Study of Kenyan Fresh Produce Exports. Chapter IV, Ph.D. Thesis, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University. Dever (2007). Case Study #6-5, "SmallFarm Access to HighValue Horticultural Markets in Kenya". In: Pinstrup- Andersen and Cheng (editors), "Food Policy for Developing Countries: Case Studies." It is about inputs Source: M. Morris, FAOSTAT and V.A. Kelly, R.J. Kopicki and D. Byerlee Fertilizer use in African agriculture: lessons learned and good practice guidelines. Washington, DC, World Bank

13 It is about women Total agricultural output in Sub-Saharan Africa could increase by 6-20 per cent if women had equal access to agricultural inputs as men And it is about funding Kilde: OECD 2006 som citeret i World Bank (2008): World Development Report s

14 But it can be done Learning from African success stories Maize Cotton Cassava Cassava Horticulture Dairy East and Southern Africa West Africa West Africa Southern Africa Kenya, Ivory Coast Kenya Technology Asset base Political lobby Input supply Output markets Critical intervention Important activity Supporting activity Source: Steven Haggblade, ed. (2004): Building on Successes in African Agriculture, 2020 Focus No. 12, IFPRI. African farmers are on the move Annual growth in agricultural GDP/agricultural population in Sub-Saharan Africa (%) Annual agricultural growth: Sub-Saharan Africa 4% Developing countries 3% World average < 2%

15 Farming for change in Africa Innovation: Research, development, education Information: Extension, markets, weather Inputs: Irrigation, seeds, fertiliser. Infrastructure: Roads, transport, ports, quality IInstitutions: Farmers organisations, finance, insurance