ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook April to September 2010

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1 An estimated 5.23 million people will continue to require emergency food assistance up to December 2010 with the net food requirement including TSF needs being 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD million according to the Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners Humanitarian Requirement Document released on 2 February Performance of the belg (February to May) rains to date has been normal to above normal in most parts of the country except for the northeastern and western parts of the country. The rains are expected to result in good belg season production in the belg crop producing parts of the country, especially in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR). This in turn is expected to improve the food security situation after June/July in these areas. Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, April 2010 Performance of the gu/ganna (April to June) main season rains for the pastoral and agro pastoral population of the south and southeast has been normal to above normal to date. This has alleviated the critical water shortages reported in For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Source: FEWS NET and WFP many parts of this area. Pasture and browse availability have improved in these parts. The improved performance of the rains coupled with ongoing improvements in food aid distribution has improved food security in these parts. Food security is expected to deteriorate further in the eastern meher producing parts of the country during the lean season between June and September. For an example all woredas in Wag Hamra zone neighboring woredas of North Gonder zone and those in Tigray along the Tekeze River as well as some lowlands of East and West Hararghe zone in Oromia Region are expected to continue to be extremely food insecure. Seasonal calendar and critical events FEWS NET Ethiopia Tel: ethiopia@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Current food security conditions Figure belg/gu/ganna/sugum season Precipitation Anomaly (mm) The Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners Humanitarian Requirement Document released on 2 February 2010 states that an estimated 5.23 million people will require emergency food assistance through December This equates to a net food requirement of 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD million. The document also estimates non food needs that include water and sanitation, health and nutrition, agriculture and livestock, and education at USD 63.4 million. Out of this total, 88,323 MT has been dispatched (86 percent of first round and 8.4 percent of second round) to distribution points as of the 31 st of March according to the Amharic Food Allocation and Distribution Report of 31 st March of the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector. Most of the areas that require emergency food aid are found in the chronically food insecure eastern half of the country, though Gambella and a few woredas of Benshangul Gumuz Region also require assistance. In addition to the emergency food aid requirements, about 7.8 million chronically food insecure people are also being assisted through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) this year. Afar Region and Jijiga and Shinile zones of Somali Region are among the areas that are being assisted both through the PSNP and through emergency programs. Currently, most of the northern parts of Afar region (most parts of Zone 2, northern parts of Zone 1, and parts of Zone 4) continue to be highly food insecure with continued water shortages being Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Africa briefing page reported in Elidaar, Ewa, Kori, Erebti and Bidu woredas. Herd sizes, especially those of cattle, have declined substantially due to repeated drought over the past few years, though a more formal study is needed to estimate the actual level of current livestock holdings. Livestock have migrated out of the northern parts of Afar Region for an extended period of time to areas along the Awash River due to the lack of water and pasture in their areas of origin. In Zones 3, 5, and most of Zone 1 of Afar, movements of people and animals in search of water and pasture is likely to substantially decline in the weeks to come because of improved pasture and water availability. In the southern parts of Afar region and the northern two zones of Somali region, there has been some improvement in the food security situation following the relatively good performance of the sugum (March to May) rains to date (Figure 2). Physical condition of livestock has improved following improved availability of pasture and water. This has led to improvement in the terms of trade for the pastorals and agro pastorals living in these areas. Milk availability continues to be low due to poor conception in previous consecutive poor seasonal rains but has improved slightly with the return of livestock to their areas of origin following the improvement in water and pasture availability. These areas continue to be moderately food insecure and are still highly dependent on food assistance both from the PSNP and the emergency programs. The current, gu (April to June), rains are the main rains for the southern parts of Somali Region, the lowlands of Bale, Borena and Guji Zones of Oromia region and South Omo zone of SNNP Region. These areas have faced repeated failure of seasonal rains that led to a substantial decline in livestock holdings. As in the northeastern pastoral areas of the country, there is a need to undertake a study to see the level of reduction in livestock holdings among the different livelihood groups. Performance of the gu rains so far has been normal to above normal in almost all of these areas that led to improved availability of pasture and water. There is improvement in milk availability as livestock have returned to their areas of origin. Water trucking, which was ongoing in parts of Somali region and Bale zone before the onset of the rains, has been stopped. Physical condition of livestock has improved, however prices of livestock remain low and terms of trade continue to be unfavorable due to security related market access issues in parts of Warder, Korahe, Degehabur, Gode and Fik zones though it has improved in other parts. For example in February 2010, people in Fik town would need 2 Shoats to buy 50 Kg of maize while on average they would need 0.6 Shoats only (Figure 3). In Afder town on the other hand, terms of trade have improved following the improvement in physical condition of livestock (Figure 4). For example in February, Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 people in Afder would need to sale 1.7 shoats to be able to buy 50 Kg of maize while on average they needed Prices of cereals continue to be stable when food aid distributions take place otherwise they are high while prices of imported food items such as sugar and rice is high and continues to increase. Despite the improvements in food security brought about by the current rains and improved distribution of emergency food aid, a significant proportion of the population is highly food insecure and continues to heavily rely on emergency food aid. In most meher crop producing parts of the country, including the marginal eastern cropping areas, food security is typically stable during the April to May period before the lean season begins in June. A significant proportion of the households in the eastern meher crop producing areas is chronically food insecure and receives assistance through the PSNP. In addition, part of the population is currently receiving emergency food aid following the poor performance of the 2009 meher season. Many woredas in these parts of the country also faced critical water shortages due to the poor kiremt (June to September) rains before the belg (February to May) rains began. Water availability has improved in most of the woredas though East and West Belesa woredas of North Gondar zone, parts of Wag Hamra zone and parts of North Wello zone in Amhara Region, parts of Southern Tigray zone in Tigray Region and lowland parts of East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia Region continue to face water and pasture shortages. In these woredas, performance of the belg rains to date has been below the long term average but better than last year. In addition to producing meher crops, some woredas in these areas, especially those in North and South Wello, depend heavily on the belg harvest. The belg rains started on time this year. However, performance to date has been erratic and could affect belg production this year. Most of these areas especially those in the lowlands, continue to be highly food insecure and depend on the PSNP and emergency food assistance. Figure 3. Fik Market Terms of Trade (Number of shoats to buy 50 kg of maize) Source: Save the Children United Kingdom (SC UK) Graphic: FEWS NET Ethiopia Figure 4. Afder Market Terms of Trade (Number of shoats to buy 50 kg of maize) Source: Save the Children United Kingdom (SC UK) Graphic: FEWS NET Ethiopia In the southern parts of the country, where people depend both on the belg and meher season harvests, most areas are moderately food insecure because even though food security has improved in the midlands and highlands following the good meher harvest and improved availability of transitional crops (e.g., sweet potatoes), supplemented by PSNP. Performance of meher crops was poor in Wolayita zone, lowlands of Sidama, Hadiya, Gamo Gofa, lowlands of Siltie and Guraghe zones. In addition to poor performance of the meher crops in these areas, performance of pepper, the main source of income in the Guraghe lowlands and Alaba Special woreda, was very poor. Therefore, these areas are highly food insecure with an increase in the number of children admitted to Outpatient Therapeutic Programs and Stabilization Centers (SC). In the southern parts of SNNPR which are most dependent on the belg rains, including the southern special woredas of Konso, Derashe, Burji and Amaro and the dominantly pastoral zone of South Omo, performance of the 2009 belg rains was Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 poor and performance of the October to December short rains was below average also leading to poor meher harvest. Food security in these parts of the region, especially those of the special woredas, is fragile and a large proportion of the population is dependent on food assistance. Performance of the belg rains to date has been normal to above normal through most of SNNPR. Water and pasture availability that was scarce in the lowlands, has improved substantially following the rains. Land preparation and planting of belg crops was undertaken in all belg producing parts of the region. Gambella region is typically moderately food insecure at this time of year, mainly due to floods and tribal conflicts within the region. This year most of the region is highly food insecure due to a very poor meher crop harvest that followed belowaverage rains in Fishing has also declined due to the low level of the rivers. In addition to the internal clan conflicts this year, there was also cross border conflict that displaced about 10,000 households living near Sudan. Although emergency food assistance is provided, the level of food and non food assistance is not sufficient to meet the needs and most of the region continues to be highly food insecure. Most likely food security scenario (April to September 2010) The most likely scenario is based on the following assumptions: Gu/Genna/Belg rains (March June) are expected to continue to be normal to above normal, except for the northern and western parts of the country where performance to date has been below average. The belg harvest is expected to be normal, except for the lowlands of Gamo Gofa zone and the dominantly belg producing areas in the northeastern highlands. In the absence of any reliable medium range forecast, kiremt rains (June September) are assumed to perform normally. PSNP cash and food assistance is expected to be provided based on the requirement. Distributions however are expected to continue to be late. Food imports by the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise aimed at price stabilization are expected to continue and result in stable price of staples despite a poor harvest in the eastern parts of the country. Prevailing conflict is expected to continue to affect people in Gambella region (displacement and restricted access to grazing and farming land). Continued security related market access problems are expected in parts of Somali Region. Based on these assumptions and current conditions, the northern part of Afar region is expected to continue to be highly food insecure during the June to September period despite the anticipated normal performance of the karma (July to September) rains and both the PSNP and emergency food distributions. The agro pastoral parts of northern Afar will have very poor harvest in June/July due to below average performance of the sugum rains. Prices of staples are expected to be seasonably high during this period and this is expected to result in deteriorated terms of trade for the pastorals and agropastoralists in the northern parts of Afar. The repeated failure of seasonal rains and sustained poor terms of trade in northern Afar region has increased the vulnerability to food insecurity of the pastorals and agropastoralists in this area. Availability of water and pasture will improve following the rains full recovery will take time. The southern part of Afar region and the northern two zones of Somali region are expected to continue to be moderately food insecure. Crop harvests from the sugum rains are expected to improve food availability at the household level in these areas. Improved pasture and water availability from both the sugum and the karma/karran season are expected to lead to improvement in physical condition of livestock resulting increase in price. Prices of cereals are expected to be seasonably high so terms of trade will remain stable. Despite these improvements, the pastoral and agro pastoral people in these areas will continue to heavily rely on food assistance both from emergency programs and the PSNP. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 In most agro pastoral parts of southern Somali Region, lowlands of Bale, Guji and Borena of Oromia Region and South Omo Zone of SNNPR, land preparation and planting of crops has been carried out following the timely gu/ganna rains except in few pocket of southern Somali, western parts of Bale lowlands and Selamago woreda of South Omo zone in SNNPR where the performance of the rains was below average. Improvements in the physical condition of livestock following the start of the rains are expected to lead to an improvement in the livestock to cereal terms of trade. Improved income from livestock sales and crop production from the agro pastoral areas is expected to maintain the food security situation to remain moderately food insecure. However, food deficits will remain, especially in the parts of southern Somali region where security related market access problems prevail. Though improvements in water and pasture availability will lead to improvement in physical condition of livestock, livestock to cereal terms of trade are not expected to improve in these areas due to the insecurity. Most of the population in these parts of Somali region will continue to be highly food insecure and heavily dependent on food aid June to September. Figure 2. Most-likely food security scenario, April to June 2010 Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP Figure 3. Most-likely food security scenario, July to September 2010 In the eastern meher producing parts of the country, the period June to September is the typical lean season when stocks from the meher harvest decline. It is also the period when prices of staples are at their highest. This year, following the poor performance of last year s meher harvest, the lean season is expected to begin earlier than usual. Extreme food insecurity is expected to persist in areas such as Wag Hamra zone, East Belesa and Beyeda in North Gondar zone and Abergelle and Tselemt woredas (those along the Tekeze river) in Western and Central Tigray zones and some woredas in the lowlands of East and West Hararghe zones in Oromia region despite heavy assistance though PSNP and emergency programs. These areas have already reported unusual migration of people and livestock due to food shortages. Other areas are expected to be highly food insecure. Some of these woredas also have some belg production however; the contribution of the belg harvest is very low and is not expected to bring significant Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP improvement in food security. Poor and middle households are expected to face significant food deficits during the June to September period with increased admissions to OTPs and SCs. The food insecure parts of eastern SNNPR produce both meher and belg crops. Performance of the belg rains to date in these areas has been normal to above normal. This has led to improved availability of transitional crops and planting and Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 growing of belg crops has also been undertaken. With the good belg harvest anticipated in June/July, food security of areas that have significant belg crop production such as the southern special woredas, parts of Wolayita and Hadiya is expected to improve. Moderate food insecurity will continue because despite the improved food security situation, most of these areas especially the poor households will continue to require food aid. For parts of SNNPR that are dominantly meher producing (such as Alaba Special Woreda and lowlands of Guraghe zone) and had poor meher production, the period June to September is the lean season, similar to the other meher producing parts of the country. These areas are expected to continue to be highly food insecure due to poor performance of last year s meher crops and the low price of pepper this year. Admission to OTPs and SCs is expected to increase. Increased sale of livestock by the rich and mid income groups is expected to occur while the poor are expected to increase labor migration. PSNP and emergency food aid will be an important source of food for these parts during the lean season between June and September. Most of Gambella region is expected to continue to be highly food insecure through August which is when the maize harvest normally begins. Normally land preparation for planting of maize and sesame are carried out in April and May with the belg rains. This year, performance of the belg rains has been below normal to date and could affect the land preparation and planting of these crops. There is a need to closely monitor the performance of both the belg and kiremt rains and also the crop development in this region. For the people that are displaced due to the conflict with Sudan, improvement in food security is not expected even after August because these people don t have access to their farming land. The food insecurity of these parts of the population is expected to persist despite the harvest in August. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 Table 1: Events which could affect the food security outlook Geographic Focus Area Possible events in the next 6 months that would change the most likely scenario in this area Impacts on food security conditions Likelihood of occurrence* Key variables to monitor A. Afar and Northern Somali regions Poor sugum/gu rains during the remainder of the season Poor performance of the main karma/karan rains Increased water shortages Unusual migration of livestock Increased need for humanitarian assistance High levels of livestock mortality in the northern parts of Afar region Extreme water shortages in the northern parts of Afar region Increased and unusual migration Critical shortage of milk Poorer livestock:cereal ToT Seasonal rains Seasonal rains Cereal and livestock prices B. Southern Somali, Lowlands of Bale, Guji and Borena zones of Oromia Region and South Omo of SNNPR Below normal Gu/Genna rains during the remainder of the season Increased insecurity in parts of Somali region. Most of Warder Zone and Gashamo woredas in Degehabur that received the gu rains late will face water and pasture shortages. No significant impact expected in other parts of the region. Could intensify the market access problems in the Southern zones of Somali region. Performance of Gu/Genna rains in Warder zone and Gashamo woreda Prices of staples and livestock as well as imported food items C. North Eastern highlands, Parts of Rift valley, East and West Hararghe D. Parts of SNNPR Wolayita, Gedeo, Sidama, Kembata Tembaro and Hadiya zones and the southern special woredas Poor performance of kiremt rains Poor performance of belg rains up to the end of the rainy season in May. Widespread extreme food insecurity Poor belg harvest leading to a large number of people requiring continued emergency assistance. unlikely Prices of staples kiremt rains belg rains All areas (A,B,C, and D) Irregular and inadequate resources transfers through the PSNP and emergency programs Unusually high levels of cereal prices high levels of acute malnutrition/rapid increase in the rates of admission to OTPs and SCs Food aid distributions (PSNP and emergency) Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin April 2010 Maize is the most widely consumed cereal by the rural poor. Sorghum is generally one of the cheapest cereals. Teff is also very important throughout the country. The most important markets for teff are the large cities including Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Mekele, and Dire Dawa. Addis Abada is the capital city and Dire Dawa, Mekele, and Jijiga are major towns in the eastern, mainly food insecure, parts of the country. Bahir Dar is a major town in a surplus producing area. Jimma represents a generally food secure surplus area. Shashemene is an assembly, wholesale, and retail market and the main transshipment point for cereals from the south and southwest to the center and east. Sodo is an urban center located in the Wolayita zone, and is one of the most chronically food insecure parts of the region. Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

9 ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin March 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

10 ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin March 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii