Sernick Boeredag 1Mei 2018

Transcription

1 Sernick Boeredag 1Mei 2018 Ekonomie en Markvooruitsigte Mielies en oliesade Vee Prof. Johan Willemse Agrimark Consult 1

2 Reservebank & Budget Review

3 ECONOMIC GROWTH & PRIVATE EXPENDITURE 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Dec 2011 Dec 2013 Dec 2015 Dec 2017 GDP PCE BALANCE OF PAYMENT - R million Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Current account Financial account 2, , , , SA CENT PER FOREIGN CURRENCY UNIT Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 18 USA dollar Euro UK pound Agrimark Consult 3

4 12% INFLATION : (Index 1995=100) % change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Inflation Food GrainSA Agrimark Consult 4

5 SA rentekoers effens gedaal-maar dan sywaarts? Rentekoers differensiaal tussen SA en VSA belangrik vir kapitaalvloei en Rand VSA in rentekoers stygfase Agrimark Consult 5

6 Agrimark Consult 6

7 Source: Investec Agrimark Consult 7

8 Staatskuld word laer projekteer in Febr 2018 vs Okt 2017 Staats odnernemings word aan gewerk gedeeltelike privatisering Staatsuitgawes is besnoei Nuwe staatskuld projeksie beter as Okt.2017 Agrimark Consult 8

9 Jun-82 Jun-83 Jun-84 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Consumer confidence index-ber 30 Ramaphosa Agrimark Consult 9

10 Agrimark Consult 10

11 Agrimark Consult 11 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 140,00 01-Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan-16 1-Mar-16 6-Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr May-18 Indeks Crude oil $/Barrel Brent Oil

12 Ekonomiese groei, prima rentekoers en R/$ w isselkoers % Groei % 3.0% % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0 0.0% groei % Rentekoers $/R Agrimark Consult 12

13 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS R million DEBT / ASSET RATIO 40% 35% % % Debt R million Agrimark Consult Debt % of assets Debt % of assets 20% 15% 13 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 1.2A

14 According to spatial analysis: The state control 52,1 Mill ha= 42,7% of SA land Agrimark Consult 14

15 AGRISA: Annelize Crosby: Vraag wat gestel sal word tydens die openbare verhore: Is artikel 25 n struikelblok in die weg van grondhervorming? 15

16 Moontlike uitkoms van hersiening van artikel 25 van Grondwet: Mothlante Paneel wat inhoud en implementering van sleutel wetgewing ondersoek het-bevind die probleem is nie grondwet nie=implementering deur die Staat en korrupsie! Die feit dat grondhervorming begunstigdes nie titelaktes ontvang nie, word toenemend identifiseer as groot struikelblok. Kommunale grondbesit word as n probleem identifiseer en aanduidings is dat daar n mate van eienaarskap/titelakte gevestig moet word. Dit blyk die ANC is nie ten gunste van trusteeskap idee nie (onprakties). Onbenutte grond is ter sprake (en dalk grondplafon wetgwing?) Grond wat onproduktief is en vir spekulasie gehou word. Onderbenutte grond van Publieke instellings en staat. Onbenutte grond by stedelike gebiede en stedeleike geboue wat gekaap is. Grond wat deur afwesige grond eienaar bedryf word Bron: A. Crosby.Agri SA, hoof grondsake Agrimark Consult 16

17 El Nino/La Nina Enso indicator moving into neutral. Agrimark Consult 17

18 MAIZE USA in potential trade war with China (25% import duty on USA maize/soybeans ) Also within NAFTA-Mexico (maize trade Wm?) & Canada Argentinian Drought impact on grains/oilseeds USDA lowered planting intentions against expectations (1-2 million less acres) Markets were shocked= Price volatility!! GRAINS - Maize 18 GRAINS : MAIZE 2.1A

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20 GRAINS - Maize 20

21 MAIZE CBOT Planting intentions Argentinian drought USA Planting Trump tarrif war GRAINS - Maize 21 GRAINS : MAIZE 2.1 A

22 Agrimark Consult 22

23 Volatility increased due to: * Lower USA planting intentions * Chinese import duties on maize and soybeans possible (25 %) GRAINS - Maize 23

24 MAIZE MAIZE PRICE (YM no. 3) Randfontein (Duty = 0 Dec '06) R/ton SAGIS $/ton 50 0 Mar-2012 Mar-2014 Mar-2016 Mar-2018 US price ($) Export parity GRAINS - Maize Import parity 24 GRAINS : MAIZE 2.1A

25 MAIZE BALANCE SHEET FOR MARKETING SEASONS (000 ton) 2018/04/26 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Total Total Total Total FC FC Carry-over stock (1 May) Commercial producers' crop Imports Total supply Minus: Farm retention Commercial available Minus: Commercial use : Human market Animal market/industrial Other use (withdrawals/grist/ethanol) Available for export or farmer/trader storage Exports Ending stocks Working stock required (6 weeks) Stocks % of domestic use 6,35 27,51 25,53 3,03 35,88 29,41 WM continues to replace YM in feed, depending on WM discount/premium & transport factor. Stock levels are slowly drawn down, smaller crop/larger exports. Agrimark Consult 25

26 Agrimark Consult 26

27 USA lower plant.intent Argentinian drought. US/China trade war? Safex not at true export parity? Larger domestic crop Compete with USA in world markets Price range R2200/t R1800/t Wm Producer: Should have 50-60% price hedge in place? Capture up potential Stop loss.putt GRAINS - Maize 28

28 SOYBEANS First time in recent history that demand outstrips production WORLD SOYBEANS : Production, consumption & prices $/ton MT / / / /18 Production Consumption Prices Oilseeds 29 OILSEEDS SOYBEANS 3.1A

29 SOYBEANS: Sept/Aug G3 (USA, Brazil, Argentina) Million ton 3/2018 (T7) 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 22/23 Opening stock USA Brazil Argentina Production USA Brazil Argentina ,00? Exports USA Brazil Argentina Ending stocks USA Brazil Argentina Oilseeds *Braz/Arg latest estimates Johan by Willemse Oil World-new 2018season 30

30 USA export soybeans= 56Mt in 17/18 Oilseeds 31

31 SOYBEANS Rabobank Risk is that CBOT will trade at discount to South America, As Chinese buyers switch-already premium on South A meal. Oilseeds 32

32 Agrimark Consult 33

33 SOYBEANS SA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION (Production years) '000 ton & ha Oilseeds Yield 2011/ / / /18 Area planted Production Yield OILSEEDS SOYBEANS 3.1C

34 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR SOYBEANS IN SA Marketing years : Jan to Dec.14/15 & 15/16 March-Febr year 2018/04/26 SAGIS /SASDE FC '000 ton / / / /18 18/ t/ha 1.88 t/ha 1.5 t/ha 1,49 t/ha 2,29 1,8 Supply ( 000 Ha) 517,0 503, Beginning stock (1 Jan) 175,9 61, Production 760,0 948, Imports 0,6 103, Total supply 936,5 1112,8 1259,0 1073,0 1383,0 1724,0 Demand Commercial consumption Full fat feed 161,5 118, Food 26,7 25, Crush 560,1 861, Total commercial consumption 748,3 1005,5 1135,0 975,0 1056,0 1165,0 Undeclared/farm use 10,9 43, Total domestic consumption 759,2 1048,5 1165,0 999,0 1088,0 1197,0 Exports 15,4 0, Total demand 774,6 1049,1 1170,0 1006,0 1089,0 1197,0 Ending stock 161,9 63,7 89,0 67,0 294,0 527,0 Working stocks 93,5 125, Agrimark Consult 35

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36 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR SUNFLOWER SEED IN SA PRODUCTION SEASON Marketing years = March - February 26-Apr-18 SAGIS/SASDE '000 ton /16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Fc Supply 1,15t/ha 1,1t/ha 1,42t/ha 1,15t/ha 1,2 t/ha 1,34t/ha 1,25 t/ha Beginning stock (1 Jan) 232,7 114,4 47, Commercial production 521,1 559,0 833, Imports 11,8 33,1 63, Total supply 765,6 706,5 943, Demand Commercial consumption 652,3 623,8 847, farm use/undelivered -1,2 4,9 7, Exports 0,0 0,0 0,5 0, Total demand 651,1 628,7 855, Ending stock 114,5 77,8 88, Working stocks req. 163,1 156,0 80, Agrimark Consult 37

37 Agrimark Consult 38

38 Slaughterings Cattle Sheep (-3% vs Feb 17) /m Oct Nov Dec Jan Febr Cattle Sheep Pigs Listeriose: 6000 varkslag kapasiteit per week minder Vraag na verwerkte vleis skerp gedaal-bees/skaap/vark Varkvleis pryse gedaal vanaf R28/kg na R20/kg en laer Varkvleis in varsmark. Bees en skaapvleis??? Livestock Industries 39

39 PORK 3,500 PORK PRICE TRENDS (c/kg) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 Porker price Livestock Industries Baconer price 40 LIVESTOCK PORK 5.3A

40 PORKER / FEED PRICE RATIO c/kg Polokwane produsente 0 0 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec Pork/feed price ratio Porker price Livestock Industries 41

41 Producer prices and consumption per capita (kg) Pork Chicken Beef Lamb Producer price/ R/kg Per capita Agrimark Consult 42

42 Livestock Industries 43

43 BEEF PRICES AND LEADING INDICATOR c/kg Indicator Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 18 Class A Leading indicator Agrimark Consult 44

44 BEEF BEEF PRICES : Class A, B and C - c/kg Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 18 Class A Class B Class C Livestock Industries 45 LIVESTOCK BEEF 5.1B

45 BEEF WEANER CALF PRICE TRENDS Calf = c/kg Maize = R/ton Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 18 Break-even Weaner YM2 Livestock Industries 46 LIVESTOCK BEEF 5.1B

46 Feedlot standing numbers January month Source: SA Feedlot Ass. feedlot veld Livestock Industries 47

47 BEEF SLAUGHTERINGS (numbers), IMPORTS (ton) AND CLASS A PRICE (c/kg) Slaughterings c/kg = Price Ton = Imports Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Slaughterings Class A Imports Livestock Industries 48

48 MUTTON & LAMB AUSTRALIAN MUTTON PRICES DURBAN HARBOUR & CLASS C - c/kg Mar-2012 Mar-2014 Mar-2016 Mar-2018 Class C Import parity Durban harbour Livestock Industries 49 LIVESTOCK MUTTON & LAMB 5.2B

49 MUTTON & LAMB SHEEP PRICE TRENDS c/kg Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 Class A Class B Class C Livestock Industries 50 LIVESTOCK MUTTON & LAMB 5.2B