MOTIVATIONS. Sahel. GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

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1 GFCS, «Les services climatiques pour augmenter la resilience au Sahel» FAO, Aout 2016

2 MOTIVATIONS Short rainy season : 4 months Strong climate variability (strongest in the world and at all time scales) Huge socio-economical impacts : Health : malaria, meningitis Agriculture : (90% in Senegal) rain fed and pastoralism limited economic resources Sahel GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E

3 Problems of true versus false onset Same period of onset but followed by dry spell which affect any planning False Start True Start 3

4 National Multi-disciplinary Working Group (GTP) Created in 1984 (severe drought in the 1970s ) Member : national state departments working on issues related to water and agriculture (fishery, livestock, agriculture, water, environment, media, health) Meet during the rainy season each ten days Objective : monitor rainy season and its impact by issuing bulletin to inform decision makers (state, NGOs, users, ) Products : Agro-meteorological bulletin (ten day) : actual rainfall + anomalies and 10 days forecast, agricultural and pest disease states, herds, vegetation monitoring, river flows, market prices, analysis and advices Special field reports (mid and end season

5 National Multi-disciplinary Working Group (GTP)

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7 BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS : MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH. National Level : National Weather Service (ANACIM) Ministry of agriculture (DA) Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR) Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE) national agricultural research institute (ISRA) National department of water resource management (DGPRE) ENDA Energie Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine : agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR) Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR), NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV), Farmers organizations : National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, ), Individual farmers, Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA) Communication : community and rural radio, National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )

8 Building on local knowledge: High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators Stronger monsoon Doing quite the same thing BUT Better observing system More reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers, ) «When the wind change direction to fetch the rain» = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon during onset

9 DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM : WHAT DECISONS FARMERS are MAKING TO MANAGE THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY? WHAT Field preparation : Selecting the crop : Planting : Weeding : Applying fertilizer, pesticide, Harvesting : Storage : WHY Finance Technology Heritage Sociology Habits Beliefs Environment Climate/weather

10 Before During the Crop season Maturity/end Seasonal forecast varieties Onset forecast farm preparation Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder) Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticide Ten-day forecast weeding, field work Ten-day forecast optimum harvesting period Training workshop Indigenous knowledge Discussion and meetings Field Visits 10 days experts meeting : monitoring the season Evaluation Lessons drawn

11 team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

12 TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS

13 Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting Climate information Farmers Livestock Community radio Local authority Local working Group (Customize Climate information) Extensions services Seed growers Forestry Agriculture Pest Disease Control Local Pluri-disciplinary Working Group Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin Community

14 Formal document establishing the GTP by local authority

15 Network of community radios used to disseminate climate inormation

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17 WHAT DID WE LEARN First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous knowledge) Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast (tailored for specific user needs in local language) Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each institution has part of the solution for food security) Communicating the forecast in easy to use term (easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated) Dynamic process : need to better understand farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage, indigenous knowledge, evaluation of forecast and activities )

18 CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm scaling-up other sites (government representative demand) Offer Alternative : dry (bad news!) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative) wet but there is no extra resources : so what? SOLUTION : Offering comprehensive whole package with varieties of partners (engage seed/fertilizer producers, bank, corporation, ) 1 Climate services (forecast + technology => advices) 2 Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage)