Partners in Research Conference -- Jan. 31, 2007 On Farm Research A farmer s perspective

Transcription

1 Partners in Research Conference -- Jan. 31, 2007 On Farm Research A farmer s perspective Lee A. Scheufler Scheufler Farms, Inc. Sterling, KS Lee@ScheuflerFarms.com Kansas Agricultural Research Association Farm crops: Dryland 100% No Till: Wht-Wht- DCSoy-Corn-Milo-Soy-Wht-Wht-etc. (90%) Irrigated 100% No Till: Corn-Corn- Soy-Wht-DCSoy-Corn-Corn-etc. (10%) The only constant on our farm is change! Successful producers will need to learn about change and adapt to change. Knowledge is increasing at a faster & faster rate. Precision Ag == Accurate application (location & amount) Recorded information (application & harvest) Reliable memory no longer hold all of your farm history in your head. Transferable memory consultants, next generation, etc. 1

2 Early advantages from the adoption of Precision Ag will come from efficiency gains. Long term advantages from the adoption of Precision Ag will come from improved knowledge and the application of that knowledge. ON FARM RESEARCH Tillage Nitrogen fertilizer Variety Seeding Rate 2

3 What we expect Uniform Yield What we get: Variable Yield Why??? Yield map is the answer So, why do on farm research?? But, What was the question? Weed infestations, elevation, slope, drainage, soil types, previous history, ph, P, K, N, S, micronutrients, etc. we do not know. The Missouri or Show Me reason for research. We are generally the better persuaded by the reasons we discover ourselves than by those given to us by others. --- Blaise Pascal ( ) If you have ever tried out a new variety or new treatment or different rate, then you have already been doing on farm research. 3

4 1994 Yield monitors, GPS, controllers, etc. I thought, As soon as we get through these tech issues, we ll just measure our yields, soil tests, etc. & variably apply nutrients. WRONG!!! Unfortunately, Agronomy doesn t have the answers! Funding for University/ USDA Research is drying up. Farmer s will need to determine what specific actions result in greatest profitability on their own farms with their own management systems So... If they (University and USDA/ARS) haven t figured it out it 100+ years, when are they going to? Rapid changes in technology. (No Till) Does small plot research apply to my farm? Your conditions, your soils, your tools, your ideas How different (distance, conditions, etc.) is other research from my farm? Can I use data that is 1,000 miles away? 100 miles? In my county? Across the road? 4

5 Site specific management may require site specific research No Till Alkaline soils Specialty crops or tools or additives 2007: We can now precisely apply the wrong amount of product anywhere. And record it! If you ve got it recorded, you might be able to learn from it. Application errors have led to learning opportunities. (e. g. seeding rate on skip row corn) Variable Yield Not just pretty maps! Understand that the map is made of numbers and numbers can be analyzed. A new branch of statistics: Map-ematics and Spatial Statistics. Traditionally trained statisticians will resist new methods. 5

6 Map Calc 05 wheat Spatial correlation of data variograms, Nugget, sill, etc. Map Calc yield maps Map Calc 06 corn VR fertilizer Starter Yield goal 32% topdress Split planter Easy to do (esp. if planting width and harvest width are multiples or with automated guidance) Split planter Violates some Rules of Statistics with A- B, A-B pattern Random pairing improves statistical design maybe do the stats on pairs of right left? 6

7 Split planter Probably better to look at in a spatial analysis package Grid sampling Cell size will be difficult to determine & possibly costly. Grid sampling Cell size may vary with item tested. Grid sampling Systematic, Unaligned grid technique. Proven before 1994 (Fran Pierce) but not widely used laziness. Management Zones Varies with item studied. Usually end up more art than science Still valuable in some circumstances 7

8 Wheat Seeding Rate Study Wheat Seeding Rate Study Year Average Overley --- West selection Step 4: Opened in Excel: West Overley Summary Data 8

9 Wheat Seeding Rate Study Wheat Seeding Rate Study '04 & '05 Wheat Seeding Rate Study yield (bu/a) Davis_Overley_W Davis_Overley_M_Sulf Davis_Overley_E Davis_Jagalene_S RVM13_Cutter Julies_Qtr_ Seed Rate Multiple yield (bu/a) Mean of yield by seeding rate & 2005 Seed rate Multiple Mean Base rate vs Base t-test: Paired Two Sample for Means '04&'05 crop years Base 1.25Base Mean Variance Observations 6 6 Pearson Correlation Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 5 t Stat P(T<=t) one-tail t Critical one-tail P(T<=t) two-tail t Critical two-tail Wheat Field ID Variety Strip ID SeedRate SR(000) yield Ethels 80 Jagalene N Ethels 80 Jagalene N Ethels 80 Jagalene N Ethels 80 Jagalene N Ethels 80 Jagalene N s Cutter N s Cutter N s Cutter N s Cutter N s Cutter N SE3 Cutter N SE3 Cutter N SE3 Cutter N SE3 Cutter N SE3 Cutter N SE21 Cutter N SE21 Cutter N SE21 Cutter N SE21 Cutter N SE21 Cutter N Wheat Seeding Rate Study yield/a (bu.) 2006 yield vs. seed rate seed/a (000) Ethel_06 3_80_06 SE3_06 SE21_06 Mean 9

10 Wheat Seeding Rate Study year Name Davis05a Davis05b Davis05c Davis05d RVM13_ J_Qtr_ Ethel_ _80_ SE3_ SE21_ Mean Wheat Seeding Rate Study Yield (bu/a) Yield vs Seeding Rate (by field) Seeds/a (1000) Davis05a Davis05b Davis05c Davis05d RVM13_05 J_Qtr_04 Ethel_06 3_80_06 SE3_06 SE21_06 Mean Wheat Seeding Rate Study Wheat Seeding Rate Study Yield/a (bu.) Avg 2006 Yield/a (bu.) Wheat seeding rate "recommendation" Average Avg Seed/a (000) Seed/a (000) Research techniques Agronomy style: apply one treatment at multiple rates while holding all other things constant Economist style: data mine lots of information to find answers regression analysis On Farm Research Topics: Nitrogen Fertilizer Wheat Milo & Soybean Row spacing Inoculation (soybeans) Starter fertilizer (soybeans, milo, corn) 10

11 On Farm Research: Milo row spacing On Farm Research Topics: Seeding rates (corn, soybeans and wheat) Sulfur Topdress (wheat) Planter attachments (corn, milo, soybeans) Planting speed (corn) On Farm Research Topics: Variable rate lime and gypsum Fertilizer placement Potassium fertilizer Phosphorus fertilizer On Farm Research Topics: Variable rate fertilizer Seed treatment soybeans Agrotain Nitrogen fertilizer stabilizer Skip row corn planting Skip Row Corn Study On Farm Research Topics Split planter studies: Milo varieties, Seed treatments, Agrotain, etc. Soil ph/ liming requirements (Veris EC and ph) 11

12 So... Where do we go from here? Autonomous vehicle operation (driverless tractors) Automatic planter shut-offs Robotics Remote sensing and on-the-go sensing/controllers. I would encourage everyone: Learn Read Ask questions But the Number One need = Thimk! And if you re going to do on Farm Research ==> 12

13 Plan Ahead Partners in Research Lee A. Scheufler Scheufler Farms, Inc nd Road Sterling, KS Shelbourne Stripper Header Shelbourne Stripper Header Automatic air bag ride height JD4710/20 JD 9860, 935Flex Header, 8130 w/grain cart Combine and tractor on AutoTrac 13

14 Shelbourne Stripper Header On farm grain storage with tower dryer Shelbourne Stripper Header Crary Air Reel on JD935F Interesting links Thank you! Lee Scheufler