STATE OF ENVIRONMENT: WHERE CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE CONVERGE

Transcription

1 STATE OF ENVIRONMENT: WHERE CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE CONVERGE David Mkwambisi, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources PO Box 219, Lilongwe. Photo Credit Goes Here

2 The Linkage

3 STEEPS Categories That Shape Our Lives Social Economic Technological Environment Political Spiritual

4 GDP Contribution to Malawi Economy 33% 15% 52% Services Agriculture 84% of employed (aged between 15 and above) were engaged in agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (NSO, 2009) Industry Employed in Agriculture in rural areas 90% and urban was 24% (NSO 2009)

5 Factores causing economic loss Unsustainable fishing Soil degradation Deforestation Natural resource Cost damage over 10 years was 21.4% of the GDP (Mk26,574 Million in Percetage

6 GDP Contribution to Malawi Economy 84% of employed (aged between 15 and above) were engaged in agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (NSO, 2009) 90% Export value ic accounted by natural resources sector Employed in Agriculture in rural areas 90% and urban was 24% (NSO 2009) 90% Export value ic accounted by natural resources sector (Mpstly from agriculture

7 Economic Activities and Environment Production Affected Environment Consumption Affect Waste disposal State of the Environment determine the level of prosperity Now and in future

8 Global change + population growth = INCREASED WATER STRESS Greatest impacts on poor, subsistence agriculture. 8

9 Climate Change Environment Agriculture

10 Frequency of extremely high temperatures Will reach heat threshold of some crops Rainfall pattern changing Crop and Livestock productivity Impact on livelihoods Incidences of crop and livestock pests and diseases Crop and livestock destruction

11 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE

12 Earliest SOS for any district in Malawi over the observed period.

13 Farmers Opinion on rainfall ceasation for 2015/16 season

14 Brick Moulding Biodiversity loss Soil loss Create waste dumping pits Impact on agriculture Mosquito breeding sites Malaria Human Health Agricultural Productivity Poverty

15 Land dependence

16 Heavy rainfall storms Erratic rainfall Earth quakes Weather related vulnerability factors Short rainfall season Strong winds Prolonged dry spells

17 Land degradation/ Deforestation Population Pressure Poverty Land holdings & Household size Human related Vulnerability factors Access to information & Technology Illiteracy Farming technologies urbanisation

18 VISIONING

19 Uncoordinated funding Too many development structures Low funding to district structures Poor collaboration Institutional related vulnerability factors Weak networking among partners Too many development strategies Failing to implement policies Conflicting Policies

20 Causes

21 Population growth Poor or lack of planning Poverty and high illiteracy levels Evidence Rapid deforestation Wide spread soil erosion Poverty and high illiteracy levels

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23 Implications/Impacts

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25 Social capital Food security Water quality and quantity Waste Impacts I Human and Animal health Rural labour Energy resources Policies

26 Low crop yield Soil quality High farming costs Social insecurity Impacts II Environmental refugees River siltation Infrastructure destruction

27 Reduced water quantity Generation of power Food prices Biodiversity loss Impacts III Floods Impact on livestock Impact on crop production Drought

28 Urban Rural Migration Loss of farm labour Resource degradation Social insecurity Slums Waste generation Unsustainable livelihoods

29 1 Technologies have not been developed for climate change 2 Technologies and Local Context 3 Reliance on imported technologies 4 Non recognition of local knowledge 5 Technologies and policy Support 6 Weak Technology assessment process

30 1.Establish vulnerability context 8. Upscale 2.Assess existing adaptation measures 7. Approval Proposed Community Based Technology Development Framework 3.Identify existing adaptation capacity gaps 6.Test and evaluation 5.Entry point for new technologies 4.Up scaling adaptation strategies that are working

31 1 Loss of plant and animal species 3 Loss of good agricultural soil 5 Wetland disturbance 2 Increased incidences of pests and diseases 4 6 Loss of farm based income and employment Loss of rural labour

32 Adaptation Strategies

33 Child labour Winter production Sale of assets Prostitution Adaptation strategies Sale of agricultural land Migration Brick moulding Ganyu/Stre et vending Rural urban migration Charcoal business

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35 Zomba Balaka District Chikwawa Dedza Salima Dowa Mzimba Purchase with own cash Sell of livestock Ganyu Reduce number of meals Food for work Rumphi Karonga 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent response (%)

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37 Visioning Development

38 Futuring Look Possible Futures Preferable Probable A Surprise Free Scenario Future Scenarios An Optimistic Scenario A Pessimistic Scenario A Disaster Scenario A Transformation Scenario

39 What is the Future we Want? What is the desirability? What are the correlating values of the people? And most importantly, what actions can be taken today to steer the ship and design towards or away from the various scenarios?

40 Determining a Potential Course of Action Forecasting

41 Determining a Potential Course of Action In this method, the sequence of events or steps that led to that goal are imagined and defined, so that a roadmap to that desirable future is created. Backcasting

42 Used Future Disowned Future Alternative Future Alignment Future Model of Social Change

43 Six Pillars of Futures Development (MATDCT) Transformation Creating alternatives Timing Deepening Anticipation Mapping

44 What Next?

45 INSTITUTIONAL FORCES -Lack/weak of policies -Too many land lords -Poor collaboration, Corruption What should be here? ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH -Improved NR Base - Increased Biodiversity -Improved Soil quality - Ecosystem resilience?? SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORCES Food insecurity Population Poverty, Unemployment ECONOMIC HEALTH Increased incomes Improved livelihoods Capacity building Sustainable agriculture

46 Include SHOCKS slides from Brent McCusker presentation, unless he presents himself Thank You

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