Developing a Produce Market Potential Calculator Basic and Emerging Concepts

Transcription

1 Center for Transportation Research and Education Developing a Produce Market Potential Calculator Basic and Emerging Concepts Randy Boeckenstedt 2006 SARE National Conference

2 Primary Functions Demand Supply Market Capacity Surplus (Deficit) Funding and Technical Assistance Provided by the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture

3 Core Data Demand (Pounds/Year) Population X Per Capita Consumption Supply (Pounds/Year) Crop Acres X Average Crop Yield

4 Derived Data Market Capacity (Supply) / (Demand) Surplus (Deficit) (Supply) (Demand) Display Core Derived 1 Demand Supply Market Capacity Surplus (Deficit),, Adair 134, , , % 130,000 Adams 73,100 73, , % 156,900 Allamakee 241, , ,000 85% (37,000) Appanoose 224, ,000 44,400 20% (179,600)

5 Demand Population 1 Geographic Area Population estimates July 1, 2005 July 1, 2004 July 1, 2003 July 1, 2002 July 1, 2001 July 1, 2000 Iowa 2,966,334 2,952,904 2,941,362 2,934,340 2,931,272 2,928,460.Adair 7,859 7,895 7,970 8,007 8,096 8,212.Adams 4,264 4,300 4,378 4,388 4,415 4,479.Allamakee 14,709 14,712 14,607 14,449 14,412 14,680 C National Average Per Capita Consumption 2 Fresh apples: Per capita consumption adjusted for loss 1 Year Primary weight 2 Loss from primary to retail weight Retail weight Loss from retail/ institutional to consumer level Consumer weight Loss at consumer level Nonedible share Other (cooking loss and uneaten food) Total loss, all levels Per capita consumption adjusted for loss Lbs/year Percent Lbs/year Percent Lbs/year Percent Percent Percent Lbs/year Oz/day G/day Sources: 1. Census Data: (downloads as one spreadsheet) 2. USDA: (individual spreadsheets)

6 Supply Producing Acres in each 1 Average State Yields 2 Sources: Ag Census; Tables 25, 28-33: 2. Based on Iowa Commercial Horticulture Survey (Print Only); revised by two horticulture specialists

7 Undisclosed Census Values Estimated from missing amounts Sorted back and forth between crops and counties Allocated smallest values first o < 10 acres based on number of farms o > 10 acres based on weighted average of missing acres Current Best Guess of farm capacity

8 Estimating Undisclosed Values Crop Total Crop Acres Total Acres in Missing from Crop Missing from Census Acres Census Farms Apricots 4 Dallas (D) 3 Apricots 4 Lee (D) 1 Apricots 4 Johnson (D) 1 Apricots 4 Clinton (D) 1 Apricots 4 Van_Buren (D) 1 Apricots 4 Decatur (D) 2 Apricots 4 Appanoose (D) 1 Apricots 4 Washington (D) 1 Nectarines 5 Van_Buren (D) 1 Nectarines 5 Table Lucasis sorted 10 by 5 5 (D) 1 Nectarines 5 Appanoose 13 amount missing 5 11 (D) 1 Plums 17 Dallas (D) 2 Plums 17 from Chickasaw each Crop (D) 1 Plums 17 (lowest Winneshiekto highest) acres of (D) Apricots 2 Plums 17 Jackson (D) 1 distributed over 11 Plums 17 Floyd (D) 1 Plums 17 Butler farms (D) 1 Plums 17 Allamakee (D) 1 Plums 17 Jefferson (D) 1 ( ~ per farm ) Plums 17 Iowa (D) 1 Plums 17 Muscatine (D) 1 Plums 17 Scott (D) 1 Plums 17 Van_Buren (D) 1 Plums 17 Cedar (D) 1 Plums 17 Mills (D) 1 Plums 17 Lucas (D) 1

9 Estimating Undisclosed Values Crop Total Crop Acres Total Acres in Missing from Crop Missing from Census Acres Census Farms Apricots 4 Dallas Apricots 4 Lee Apricots 4 Johnson Apricots 4 Clinton Apricots 4 Van_Buren Apricots 4 Decatur Apricots 4 Appanoose Apricots 4 Washington Nectarines 5 Van_Buren (D) 1 Nectarines 5 Lucas (D) 1 Nectarines 5 Appanoose (D) 1 Plums 17 Dallas (D) 2 Crops with fewest missing Plums 17 Chickasaw (D) 1 Plums 17 Winneshiek 21acres are 6 filled in first 1 (D) 2 Plums 17 Jackson (D) 1 Plums 17 Floyd 2 ~ 0.3 acres/farm 6 2 (D) 1 Plums 17 Butler (D) 1 Plums 17 Allamakee Note: 48 values shown 6 also include 3 (D) 1 Plums 17 Jefferson 29 subsequent 6 adjustments 3 (D) 1 Plums 17 Iowa (D) 1 Plums 17 Muscatine (D) 1 Plums 17 Scott (D) 1 Plums 17 Van_Buren (D) 1 Plums 17 Cedar (D) 1 Plums 17 Mills (D) 1 Plums 17 Lucas (D) 1

10 Estimating Undisclosed Values Crop Total Crop Acres Total Acres in Missing from Crop Missing from Census Acres Census Farms Apricots 4 Dallas Plums 17 Dallas (D) 2 Pears 22 Black_Hawk (D) 1 Cherries 30 Black_Hawk (D) 1 Grapes 154 Black_Hawk Table is re-sorted, this 1 (D) 3 Plums 17 Chickasaw (D) 1 Pears 22 Chickasaw time by amount 37 missing 11 1 (D) 1 Grapes 154 Chickasaw from each 1 (D) 1 Pears 22 Polk (D) 2 Peaches 23 Polk (lowest to 57highest) 18 1 (D) 1 Plums 17 Winneshiek (D) 2 Pears 22 Winneshiek (D) 3 Apricots 4 Lee Cherries 30 Lee (D) 2 Apricots 4 Johnson Cherries 30 Johnson (D) 2 Plums 17 Jackson (D) 1 Pears 22 Jackson (D) 2 Peaches 23 Jackson (D) 2 Some residuals Peaches 23 Dubuque (D) 3 Cherries can be 30 filled in Dubuque (D) 1 Plums 17 Floyd (D) 1 Cherries 30 Floyd (D) 1 Grapes 154 Floyd (D) 1 Apples 2,025 Floyd (D) 1 Grapes 154 Mitchell (D) 1

11 Estimating Undisclosed Values Crop Total Crop Acres Total Acres in Missing from Crop Missing from Census Acres Census Farms Apricots 4 Dallas Plums 17 Dallas Pears 22 Black_Hawk Cherries 30 Black_Hawk Grapes 154 Black_Hawk Plums 17 Chickasaw Pears 22 Chickasaw Grapes 154 Chickasaw Pears 22 Polk Peaches 23 Polk Plums 17 Winneshiek Pears 22 Winneshiek Apricots 4 Lee Cherries 30 Lee Apricots 4 Johnson Cherries 30 Johnson Plums 17 Jackson (D) 1 Pears 22 Jackson (D) 2 Peaches 23 Jackson This time, counties 41 with 18 fewest 2 (D) 2 Peaches 23 Dubuque (D) 3 Cherries 30 Dubuque missing acres 89 are filled 26 in 2 (D) 1 Plums 17 Floyd (D) 1 Cherries 30 FloydTable is re-sorted 2 by 26 crop 2 (D) 1 Grapes 154 Floyd (D) 1 Apples 2,025 Floyd (D) 1 Grapes 154 Mitchell (D) 1

12 Converting from Pounds/Year Pounds Cubic Feet Bushels Hundredweight 1 -Ton Truckloads 10 -Ton Truckloads 20 -Ton Truckloads Acres, Iowa Yield Acres, National Yield Retail Revenue Marketing Cost Farm Revenue Per Year Per 120 days Per Month Per Week Per Day User s Adjustments

13 Using Fixed-Rate Conversions Divide supply and demand by a fixed value: Fixed Unit Divisor Timeframe Divisor Pounds 1 Year 1 Hundredweight days 3 1 -Ton Truckloads 2,000 Month Ton Truckloads 20,000 Week Ton Truckloads 40,000 Day 365 User adjustment ratios multiply: User Adjustment Market share: Iowa Yield: Iowa Acreage: Multiplies: Demand Supply Supply

14 Using Variable-Rate Conversions Divide supply and demand by crop specific values: Variable Unit Cubic Feet Bushels Acres, Iowa Yield Acres, National Yield Retail Revenue Marketing Cost Farm Revenue Divisor Density in Pounds/Cubic Foot Density in Pounds/Bushel Iowa Yield/Acre National Yield/Acre 1 / (Estimated Retail Price/Pound) 1 / (Estimated Marketing Cost/Pound) 1 / (Documented Farm Price/Pound) Item Pounds/ Capita Pounds/ Cubic Foot Pounds/ Bushel Iowa Yield/Acre National Yield/Acre Retail Value Marketing Cost Farm Revenue Retail/ Farm Price Apples ,000 21,800 $0.97 $0.80 $ Apricots ,000 10,940 $1.44 $1.25 $ Asparagus ,500 3,300 $1.67 $0.60 $ Beans (Snap) ,000 6,300 $1.05 $0.59 $

15 Variable Conversions Sources of Crop Specific Values: Divisor Pounds/Cubic Foot Pounds/Bushel Iowa Yield/Acre National Yield/Acre Retail Price Marketing Cost Farm Price Data Source Pounds/Bushel divided by USDA Weights, Measures, Conversion Factors 1 Iowa Commercial Horticulture Survey (with revisions) USDA Yearbook Reports 2 Farm Price X Retail/Farm Price Ratio from 1999 USDA Study 3 Retail Price/Pound minus Farm Price/Pound USDA Yearbook Reports 2 Sources: 1. USDA Weights, Measures, Conversion Factors: 2. USDA: 3. How Much Do Americans Pay for Fruits and Vegetables?:

16 More Sophisticated Version is Pending Zeroes in on specific market destinations Allows user to combine crops, products, or groups Fresh and processed items Grown in Iowa or not Accounts for shrinkage Displays market components side by side Prioritizes by county or product group Allows user to adjust core assumptions and prices What-if Analyses

17 Updated Version Capacity Gap Calculated Acres = 1,737 Ames Consumers = 124,090 1 Hour Range ( Acres of Retail Sale Weight ) Per ACRE = ( = 1.6 Acres Per ) School (Ages 5-17) ( Acres of Retail Sale Weight ) Per CAPITA = ( = 41 Consumers Per ) Acres ( Acres of Retail Sale Weight ) FARM Revenue = $1,460 Prorated to 1 Year ( Acres of Retail Sale Weight ) RETAIL Revenue = $11,900 Annual Capacity ( Value Added = $10,400 ) Retail Sale Weight ( 65% of Farm Weight) Contribution Selections Demand Farm Capacity Capacity Gap Capacity Ratio 100% Items 3,021 1,072 1,949 35% Product 10% Potatoes - Fresh % Can Grow in Iowa 9% Lettuce (Head) - Fresh % 7% Potatoes - Frozen % 6% Grapes - Fresh % 5% Tomatoes - Canned % 5% Lettuce (Leaf/Romaine) - Fresh % 5% Peaches - Fresh % Dry Beans and Nuts 3% Peaches - Canned % 3% Peppers (Bell) - Fresh % 3% Tomatoes - Fresh % 3% Peppers (Chile) - Canned % 3% Onions - Fresh % 3% Broccoli - Fresh % 3% Garlic - Fresh % 3% Grapes - Juice % 2% Potatoes (Sweet) - Fresh % 2% Cherries - Fresh % 2% Watermelon - Fresh %

18 Future Goals National Coverage Submitted proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency for GIS based web version Professional graphics and programming Direct links to data (including imports) Broader professional review of data, methods, and assumptions RMA will announce projects before September 30 Transportation dependency index for specific markets Weighted average distances from food sources Risk due to petroleum and related issues o Price risks from environmental compliance, freight congestion o Disruption risk from terrorism, hurricane, etc. o Planning tool for food assistance, school lunch programs