Global Futures & Strategic Foresight

Transcription

1 Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Quantitative modeling to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and S. Nedumaran (ICRISAT) ICRISAT, Patancheru, 1 February 2016

2 Outline Introduce the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program Share some recent projections from the IMPACT model Describe some of the work that ICRISAT is doing as part of GFSF Reflect on how we might help inform decision making in the CGIAR

3 Drivers of change Today, this season, this year Weather, pests, markets, conflict, migration Medium term Agricultural policies, trade policies, markets Long term Population, income, resources, climate, preferences, technology

4 Socioeconomic and climate drivers Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) CO 2 equiv. (ppm) Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.

5 Global Futures & Strategic Foresight 1. Improved tools for biophysical and economic modeling 2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment 3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures 4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners

6 1. Improved modeling tools Complete recoding of IMPACT v3 Disaggregation geographically and by commodity Improved water & crop models New data management system Modular framework Training

7 2. Stronger community of practice All 15 CGIAR centers now participate in GFSF AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP PIK, GTAP, Wageningen, IIASA, UFL, FAO, OECD, EC/JRC, USDA/ERS,

8 3. Improved assessments Role of agricultural technologies Africa regional reports CCAFS regional studies Analyses by CGIAR centers AgMIP global economic assessments Private sector Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

9 4. Informing decisions National partners Regional organizations International organizations and donors CGIAR Centers CRPs System level?

10 Percent change from 2005 to 2050 Impacts of socioeconomic drivers to 2050 Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar Yields Area Production Prices Trade SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)

11 Percent change in 2050 Climate change impacts in 2050 Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar 20 Yields Area Production Prices Trade SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)

12 IMPACT model: selected results Food demand Yields Prices Trade Food security

13 Changing composition of diets (SSP2, NoCC) WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

14 2010 = 1.0 Growth in total global demand (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

15 2010 = 1.00 Growth in total global demand for cereals (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

16 Maize demand composition (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

17 Sorghum demand composition (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

18 Groundnut demand composition (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

19 Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

20 Growth in cereal production by region World Latin Am & Caribbean (SSP2, NoCC) South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

21 Growth in global production of pulses and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC) Pulses Oilseeds Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

22 Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects Climate Biophysical Economic General circulation models (GCMs) Δ Temp Δ Precip Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) Δ Yield (biophys) Global economic models Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade Source: Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)

23 Climate change and yields in 2050 before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5, no CO 2 fert) Rainfed sorghum Rainfed groundnut Irrigated sorghum Irrigated groundnut Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

24 Climate change impacts on cereal yields after economic responses (SSP2) Cereals WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

25 Climate change impacts on yields after economic responses (SSP2) Maize Wheat Rice Sorghum Groundnut WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

26 Impacts of socioeconomic and climate drivers on cereal prices Population and income Climate change Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

27 Net cereal trade and climate change (SSP2) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

28 Net sorghum trade and climate change (SSP2) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

29 Net groundnut trade and climate change (SSP2) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

30 Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5) EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

31 Exploring the impacts of improved technologies and practices on Crop yields (Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline) Food security (Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline) Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation Crop Protection - insects Source: Islam et al. (draft) Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

32 Global Futures & Strategic Foresight in ICRISAT

33 Impact Assessment GFP activities integrated in CRP- PIM Global Futures and Strategic ICRISAT Multidisciplinary team created and institutionalized (14 member team) Supporting priority setting, foresight and scenarios analysis for CRP DC and GL Promising technologies were identified and prioritized for evaluation Collaboration with other CRPs and Global Projects like AgMIP (data sharing, model enhancement, capacity building) Multi-disciplinary ICRISAT Economists Breeders and Physiologists Crop Modelers/GIS/RS Cynthia Bantilan, Nedumaran, Kai Mausch R Padmaja Ashok Kumar, SK Gupta, CT Hash, PM Gaur, P Janila, Ganga Rao, Jana Kholova Dakshina Murthy Gumma Murali Krishna

34 Effects of Promising Technologies on the Impact of Climate Change on Yields in 2050 Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia) Robinson et al. 2015

35 Nedumaran et al. (2013) Technology Development and Adoption Pathway Framework Technology development Promising Technologies of Groundnut development 60% Research lag Technology dissemination and adoption Adoption lag India 40% Nigeria Outcomes and Impacts Change in Production Change in prices Change in consumption Poverty level Target countries Target countries Production share (%) Burkina Faso 1.2 Ghana 1.62 India Malawi 0.7 Mali 1.01 Myanmar 3.84 Niger 0.51 Nigeria Tanzania 1.73 Uganda 0.76 Vietnam 1.84 Total 36.92

36 M US$ Potential Welfare Benefits and IRR (M US$) Technologies Net Benefits (M US$) IRR (%) Heat Tolerant Drought Tolerant Heat + Drought + Yield Faso Potential Malawi Tanzania Uganda Burkina Ghana Mali Nigeria Niger India Myanmar Vietnam ESA WCA SSEA Heat Tolerance Drought Tolerance Heat+Drought+yield potential Nedumaran et al. (2013)

37 Ongoing Work - Spatial Modeling for better targeting and impact evaluation Updating of soil and precise sowing window raster to improve better yield simulations and to identify vulnerable areas Simulation of impacts of drought, heat tolerance, and yield boost virtual cultivars under climate change using the updated soil and sowing window raster Collection of grid wise daily weather data from India meteorological department (IMD) to further improve the precision of simulations

38 Way forward Evaluate the additional promising technologies (biotic stress tolerant and management options) with current GF/PIM Strategic foresight tool Provide scenario analysis and evidence to better targeting of technology and inform priority setting for CRP DCL AFS Consider linking results from global models with household data for ex ante impact assessment at lower scales Engage with regional and country level stakeholders and support them in scenario analysis and country strategies Gender lens in foresight analysis and technology evaluation

39 4. Informing decision making National partners Regional organizations International organizations and donors CGIAR Center work planning CRP Phase 2 proposals PIM, Maize, Rice et al. System level? ISPC and donor interest

40 The CGIAR Research Agenda System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs) Reduced Poverty Improved food and nutrition security for health Improved natural resource systems and ecosystem services Increased resilience of the poor to climate change and other shocks Enhanced smallholder market access Increased incomes and employment Increased productivity Improved diets for poor and vulnerable people Improved food safety Improved human and animal health through better agricultural practices Natural capital enhanced and protected, especially from climate change Enhanced benefits from ecosystem goods and services More sustainably managed agroecosystems

41 Model improvements under way Livestock and fish Nutrition and health Land use Environmental impacts Variability Gender Poverty

42 Concluding thoughts Opportunity to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners Quantitative model results as one input among several Collective effort, involving all 15 CGIAR centers (and other partners) Multiple scales of analysis On-going effort to build capacity and a community of practice to assess options over time Looking forward to collaboration with IRRI

43 Thank you