Public Disclosure Copy

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized SOUTH ASIA Nepal Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice Recipient Executed Activities Investment Project Financing FY 2013 Seq No: 10 ARCHIVED on 24-Jan-2018 ISR31315 Implementing Agencies: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Ministry of Agricultural Development, ministry of finance Public Disclosure Authorized Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:15-Jan-2013 Planned Mid Term Review Date:20-Jan-2016 Original Closing Date:30-Nov-2018 Project Development Objectives Effectiveness Date:20-Jun-2013 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:25-Jan-2016 Revised Closing Date:30-Nov-2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) Project Development Objective: The main objective of the proposed project is to enhance government capacity to mitigate climate-related hazards by improving the accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood forecasts and warnings for climate-vulnerable communities, as well as developing agricultural management information system services to help farmers mitigate climate-related production risks. This would be achieved by establishing multi-hazard information and early warning systems, upgrading the existing hydrometeorological system and agricultural management information system, and enhancing capacity. Activities funded through the project would help improve decision-making and planning in key climatevulnerable and water resources dependent sectors particularly agriculture, health, water and disaster management, and contribute to building climate resilience for communities at risk. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Public Disclosure Authorized Name Institutional Strengthening, Capacity Building and Implementation Support of DHM:(Cost $5.10 M) Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure and Forecasting:(Cost $16.45 M) Enhancement of the Service Delivery System of DHM:(Cost $3.45 M) Creation of an Agriculture Management Information System:(Cost $6.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 1/24/2018 Page 1 of 11

2 Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The team noted considerable progress in implementation of project activities by Department of Hydrology and Metrology, Ministry of Agriculture Development (MOAD)/National Agriculture Research Center (NARC). It was noted that contracts amounting around USD 16 million have already been awarded and are under implementation. The project should continue to consolidate the gains made through expedited implementation and maintain the upward trajectory to achieve the development objective. It was agreed that the work plan would be reviewed to ensure realistic timelines and completion of activities by the project closing date. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Substantial Substantial Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- Substantial Substantial Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL Increased financial sustainability of DHM operations (Percentage, Custom) (Percentage, Custom) Value /24/2018 Page 2 of 11

3 An assessment of current operational costs indicates that Annual Maintenance Cost + Re-investment Cost calculated by SI amounts to about US$ 1.3 million. The recurrent budget for FY is US$ 1.5 million. However, it is expected that both the operational budget and staff costs will be significantly higher than the current level due to increased demands of the upgraded network PHINDPDOTBL Increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts (verified using standard methods for forecast verification - WMO WWRP/WCRP) (Text, Custom) Value No verification system in place - no skill A Forecast Verification System was tested in 2015 with an initial score of 0.49 based on 3 Indicators and for data from Kathmandu. The weather forecast verification skill score for 2016 is A Forecast Verification System was tested in 2015 with an initial score of 0.49 based on 3 Indicators and for data from Kathmandu. The weather forecast verification skill score for 2016 is h: 0.75 Forecast Verification System was tested in 2015 with an initial score of 0.49 based on 3 Indicators and for data from Kathmandu. The weather forecast verification skill score for 2016 is PHINDPDOTBL Increased satisfaction of users with DHM services (Percentage, Custom) Value A baselinesurveywas conducted in 2015 and the average Composite Users Satisfaction Index (CUSI) was 50.83% 1/24/2018 Page 3 of 11

4 PHINDPDOTBL Introduction of a sustainable AMIS that systematically streams and archives agriculture relevant hydromet and agromet data and information (Percentage, Custom) Value Overall The Application Development Agency(ADA) Consultants have reviewed design of AMIS portal and recommended some suggestion like to procure the hardware and software in separate contract package and procure hardware for data center-dc, and disaster recovery-dr in two packages Intermediate Results Indicators New DHM regulations and business practices (Text, Custom) Value Existing operating procedures are inadequate to meet DHM mission A draft bill has been developed. The 3rd draft version was submitted to MOPE for review. A concept note on the Bill development has been submitted to Cabinet and is with MoF pending approval. It is expected that the Bill can be approved in the next FY. 4th Draft Bill will be submitted to MoPE to get the approval for conducting Stakeholders interaction workshop. DHM Regulations and operational guidelines fully functioning and support DHM mission Improved access to and use of training opportunities (Percentage, Custom) Value % of the DHM professional staff trained. 1/24/2018 Page 4 of 11

5 Improved transmission of data to WMO GTS/WIS (Percentage, Custom) Value synoptic stations report to WMO every 3 hours through GTS. Improved status of surface meteorological observation network (Percentage, Custom) Value AWS (+/-) are in operation. Installation of 88 AWS network including 3 AWOS in progress 1/24/2018 Page 5 of 11

6 Improved status of surface hydrological observation network (Percentage, Custom) Value (+/-) hydro stations are providing real time WL and 73 (+/-) rainfall in website and to DHM database installation of 70 hydro stations with telemetry in progress. Provision of real-time or near real-time data to the users (Percentage, Custom) Value AWS stations, 25 hydro stations and 1 snow and glacier monitoring station with telemetry are currently operational. Development and reliable operation of an authoritative public weather service providing meteorological and hydrological warnings for extreme and high impact events reaching vulnerable communities (Text, Custom) Value Rudimentary public weather service with unverified 24 hr daily weather forecast Hydromet network modernization is still underway. Preliminary Verifications system has been developed and tested. User satisfaction baseline survey in 16 sample districts has been completed. The initial average Users Satisfaction Index (USI) for vulnerable communities is 49.35% Terminal Evaluation is planned by this fiscal year Verified 24 hr and 3 day weather forecast disseminated to public through multiple channels. 1/24/2018 Page 6 of 11

7 Establish National Framework for Climate Services (Text, Custom) Value None The cost for the consultancy package for NFCS is being reestimated after no bids were received. Procurement of NFCS is ongoing. The negotiation with the two bidders failed. DHM and SI updating the TOR and cost estimates Climate impact assessment by sector Improved access to AMIS data (Text, Custom) NAMIS website has been functioning and providing agromet services (till full function portal is developed). Value ,444 historical records on annual reports of different research stations, historical workshop proceedings, journals, factsheets collected from different research stations under NARC 1 once every month Improved linkage between AMIS and WMO AMIS (Percentage, Custom) Value /24/2018 Page 7 of 11

8 10 high level government officials from MoAD and other institutions have visited recently Geneva and discussed about implementing of operational Agrometeorological Advisory Services, operational activities for different range of forecasts and understand operational activities in agriculture and climate monitoring, learn about WAMIS (World Agro-Meteorological Information Service). MoAD is in process to send request letter to WMO to link the AAB in WAMIS Increased extension service and community training (Number, Custom) Value , Date 01-Mar Jun Jan Nov extension worker, and senior officials have benefitted through such trainings including 7326 farmers and other stakeholders Improved infrastructure development (Percentage, Custom) Value The procurement is in re-bidding and will be completed in Q3, FY 18 1/24/2018 Page 8 of 11

9 Increased adoption of AMIS tools by farmers (Number, Custom) Value Approximately 25,000 downloads of special mobile app for farmers. 25 districts receiving AAB. FAQs developed and published. Improved access to and use of training opportunities (Number, Custom) Value extension workers and senior officials trained. 90 government staff built capacity through exposure visits. Improved efficiency to disseminate and obtain feedback of agro-weather and agro-climate information (Percentage, Custom) Value ,000 recipients are receiving SMS. 1/24/2018 Page 9 of 11

10 Increased satisfaction of users with AMIS services (Percentage, Custom) Value Baseline survey is completed and end line survey is planned for next FY Overall Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P TF Effective USD % P TF Effective USD % Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P TF Effective 15-Jan Apr Jun Nov Nov-2018 P TF Effective 30-Apr Apr Jun Nov Nov-2018 Cumulative Disbursements 1/24/2018 Page 10 of 11

11 Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 1/24/2018 Page 11 of 11