Impacts of Climate Change on the Semi-Arid Zones

Transcription

1 Impacts of Climate Change on the Semi-Arid Zones Ramadjita Tabo and Pierre C. Sibiry Traore ICRISAT-Niamey and Bamako Presented at the International Workshop on Adaptation To Climate Change in West African Agriculture Ouagadougou, April 2009

2 Outline Projected and expected changes of climate Impacts on agriculture, food systems and risk of hunger Adaptation measures and options Selected on-going initiatives on climate change research Conclusions

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4 Carbon Dioxide levels

5 Drought : A Dead Ecosystem is not the home to living things: Loss of environmental goods and services

6 Disaggregated effects of climate change on % change in sorghum yields Region Potential grain yield (kg ha 1 ) Rainfall effect on yield Temp effect on yield CC effect on yield East Africa short rains % 11% 21% East Africa long rains % 42% 48% Southern Africa % -16% -22% West Africa % -20% -14% South Asia % -38% -37%

7 Impacts by region (IPCC Technical Summary)

8 Key Lessons For any given CC scenario, the impact of CC will vary both in nature and in magnitude from location to location, from crop to crop, from cultivar to cultivar Increase in temperature generally reduced crop duration and decreased grain yields Additional rainfall did not have significant positive impact on yields, except sorghum in East Africa We cannot as yet easily take account of changes in Carbon Dioxide in cereals Crop coefficients required for the broad range of cultivars so more G by E simulations can be done across region

9 Move Beyond Adaptation Adaptation to climate change is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions However: Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts of climate change The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global temperatures increase Making development more sustainable can enhance both mitigative and adaptive capacity, and reduce emissions and vulnerability to climate change

10 Thinking about Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa. September 17th, 2007 What is ICRISAT s thinking about Climate Change and Agriculture? 1. Climate Change is an emerging reality that must be recognized. 2. But the nature, rate and magnitude of CC remain very uncertain. 3. But farmers (and those who support them) will need to adapt to changes in climate as they emerge. 4. Rain-fed farmers are vulnerable to current climate variability and shocks, and are largely unwilling to invest in improved production which they consider too risky. ICRISAT believes that the immediate priority is to build the livelihoods of vulnerable and risk averse farmers to enable them to cope better with current climate variability as an essential first step required for them to be able to adapt to climate change in the future.

11 ICRISAT Operational Research Strategy Managing current climate uncertainty and adapting to future climate change Short and medium-term: Helping farmers to cope up with current rainfall variability for adapting to future climate change ( ) Medium to longer-term: Adapting our mandate crops to grow in a warmer world ( )

12 ICRISAT Operational Research Strategy (contd..) Adapting our mandate crops to current and future vagaries of Climate Key factors: 1. High temperature tolerance 2. Increased moisture stress 3. Changed distribution and severity of pests and diseases 1. Helicoverpa 4. The migration of our mandate crops to new geographical areas 5. Increased CO 2 levels??

13 Adaptations to and Mitigation of Climate Change in the SAT Integrating climate risk management into ICRISAT s IGNRM agenda The probability of success of all that we do within our IGNRM framework will be influenced to a greater or lesser extent by climate variability and changes in the nature of those climates. Climate risk management is being integrated across our research agenda. Changes in technology, population, markets significantly faster than changes in climate difficult to assess potential impacts of crop modeling work more holistic (more complex) modeling paradigms are needed

14 Hypothesis of Hope Schematic Framework. Current Climate Yield Gap Average Crop Yields Low input Practices + Current Climate Yield Gap 1 Low input Practices + Climate Change Yield Gap 2 Improved Practices + Climate Change Improved practices + Adapted germplasm + Climate change Improved practices + Improved germplasm + Current climate Management and Climate Scenarios

15 Effects of climate variability and change on crop performance And IGNRM options Late onset of rains Early drought Mid-season drought Terminal drought Shorter rainy season, risks for long-cycle crops to run out of growing time Poor crop establishment and need for re-sowing Poor seed setting and panicle development, fewer productive tillers, reduced grain yield per panicle/plant Poor grain filling, fewer productive tillers Early maturing varieties, exploitation of photoperiodism, Microdosing of P fertilizer at sowing Microdosing of P fertilizer at planting, water harvesting and runoff control, delay sowing (but poor growth due to N flush), exploit seedling heat and drought tolerance Use of species variability: Differing cycles, high tillering cultivars, optimal root traits, etc. water harvesting (zai pits, tied ridging, half moons, etc.) and runoff control Early-maturing varieties, optimal root traits, fertilizer microdosing at planting, water harvesting (zai pits, tied ridging, half moons, etc.) and runoff control

16 Effects of climate variability and change on crop performance And IGNRM options (Cont d) Climate parameters Effects on crops & natural resources Integrated Genetic and Natural Resource Mgt options Excessive rainfall Increased temperature Unpredictability of drought stress Increased CO2 levels Increased occurrence of dust storms at onset of rains Downy mildew, grain mold, poor growth due to poor aeration, nutrient leaching Poor crop establishment (dessication of seedlings), increased transpiration, faster growth See above Faster plant growth through increased photosynthesis, higher transpiration Seedlings buried and damaged by sand particles Resistant varieties, pesticides, N fertilizer at tillering Heat tolerance traits, crop residue mgt, P fertilizer at planting (increase root growth and plant vigor), large number of seedlings per planting hill Phenotypic variability, genetically diverse cultivars, early warning systems Promote positive effect of higher levels through better soil fertility management Increase number of seedlings per planting hill, mulching, ridging (primary tilage)

17 Options: Diguettes and Zai Holes in Burkina Faso and Niger

18 Options : The Dryland Eco-farm: A diversified rainfed system Half-moon basins collect runoff High-value, drought-tolerant trees Millet Sahel Apple Cowpea

19 CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Goal: To overcome the additional threats posed by a changing climate to achieving food security, enhancing livelihoods and improving environmental management. Objectives 1. Close critical gaps in knowledge of how to enhance and manage the trade-offs between food security, livelihood and environmental goals in the face of a changing climate. 2. Develop and evaluate options for adapting to a changing climate to inform agricultural development, food security policy and donor investment strategies. 3. Enable and assist farmers, policymakers, researchers and donors to continually monitor, assess and adjust their actions in response to observed and anticipated changes in climate.

20 Schematic presentation of the CCCP research framework and the science themes. Climate Variability and Change CCCP Research Framework and Science Themes Current agricultural & food systems Improved Environmental Benefits 1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoff analysis 2 Role of macro-level policies 3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions ADAPTATION PATHWAYS 4 Managing climate risk 5 Progressive climate change 6 Adaptation through mitigation Improved Livelihoods Trade-offs Improved Food Security Adapted agricultural & food systems

21 The African Climate Change Fellowship Program (ACCFP) The ACCFP is coordinated by the global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START; the Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA) at the University of Dar es Salaam ( and the African Academy of Sciences (AAS; The International Development Research Centre (IDRC) provides financial support for the Fellowship program under its Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program (

22 The ACCFP (Cont d) The ACCFP awards Fellowship grants to Fellows to visit other institutions (referred to as Host Institutions ) to undertake a project or activities that will increase their knowledge, capabilities, and experience for advancing climate change adaptation in Africa Policy Fellowships Doctoral Research Fellowships Post-Doctoral Fellowships Teaching Fellowships

23 Conclusions Climate change is likely globally to : reduce potential agricultural output in the longer term, and increase risk of hunger. Adverse effects, regionally and near-term, are likely to be marked in the dry tropics and dry sub-tropics (eg especially in Africa)

24 Conclusions (Cont d) Most serious effects, sub-nationally, will probably be at the social and economic margins (where adaptive capacity is low). Early mitigation is needed so that adaptive capacity is not exceeded by subsequent large climate changes Need to foster adaptation in most vulnerable regions: the poorest areas, small islands, low-lying coasts, and dry/semi-arid regions.

25 Thank You! - Merci