Climate Change and International Development: UK Parliamentary Briefings.

Transcription

1 Climate Change and International Development: UK Parliamentary Briefings. March 2009, London Margaret Catley-Carlson UN Secretary General Advisory Board on Water, World Economic Forum (Davos) Chair Water GIC International Water Management Institute Suez Environment Global Water Partnership

2 What do you really know about Water? Only 2.5% freshwater. Of that small amount 70% polar ice caps; Soil humidity, inaccessible. Usable water 1-2% planet s existing freshwater. 100 year period, a water molecule spends. 98 years in the ocean, 20 months in ice, 2 weeks in lakes and rivers, a week in the atmosphere. Oceans 80%. 20 per cent of precipitation falls on land

3 We are all about water Water IS life 2 liters, 25 liters, 2500 liters We have liters per day The poor have as little as 20 liters Atlanta, New Jersey, California new headlines 6,000 children per day die clean water and sanitation Women heavy toll Girls education, life chances, fertility Sanitation in schools =11% + p/y since % of LDC urban water NOT treated

4 Water and Poverty Poor spend a great deal more on water Free water hurts poor most Poor affected most by water borne illness 73 million working days lost in India - $600m lost in treatment lost production

5 We must be taking good care of it right? Well, not really Water tables declining. Many rivers no longer reach the sea. 70 Rivers closing 1b+ people no consistent access to freshwater. Freshwater aquatic species in peril(28%?). Deltas and wetlands disappearing. WHY???? P P P

6 It takes a litre of water Margaret to Catley-Carlson, produce London, every ODI calorie, on average

7 How much more water for cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population Water Needs (ET) Margaret will Catley-Carlson, double London, ODI without water productivty gains

8 IPCC Report it won t get better it s about water mitigation and adaptation impacts on water impacts on water management IWRM the way forward Relative changes in precipitation (by percent) for the period , relative to Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES based on the A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree on the sign of the change.

9 IPCC Report it s about water mitigation and adaptation impacts on water impacts on water management IWRM the way forward In addition to increased temperatures and sea level rise, IPCC predicts: Heavy and more frequent precipitation events Area affected by droughts will increase Intense tropical cyclone activity will increase Snow cover will contract Extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward Increases in precipitation in high latitudes Decreases in precipitation in most sub-tropical land regions IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10 Effects Combine Hotter, more evaporation from the soil and plants, less water will flows into rivers, into aquifers underground but Harder rain - larger proportion of water will flow off the ground as floods or infiltrate into the soil Seems to be intensity of impact at higher altitudes and latitudes implication for glacial melting, winter snow accumulation

11 Some Chapter Headings Security Disasters Infrastructure and financing Food and agriculture food security Escape routes if we can

12 UK Defense Minister John Reed February 2006:.violent collision between a rising world population and a shrinking world water resource Britain must be prepared for humanitarian disaster relief, peacekeeping and warfare to deal with the dramatic social and political consequences of climate change" Preparedness to intervene in wars about water.

13 View From The CIA Water, As You May Know, Is A Big Deal. John C. Gannon Chairman, National Intelligence Council United States Army War College, Carlisle PA December 2000, the CIA's Global Trends Instability brought on by a shortage of drinking water--"the single most contested resource on the planet, "Global water consumption X 10 since 1900, many parts of the world are now reaching limits of their supply. World population is expected to increase by 45% in the next thirty years.

14 Continuing From The CIA Report. By 2015 nearly half the world s population more than 3 billion people will live in countries that are "waterstressed". mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China. In the Middle East, per capita decline in water availability over the next 25 years looks something like this: Israel, 33 %; Jordan, 75 %; Iran, 50 %; Saudi Arabia, 67 %; Egypt, 40 %; Ethiopia/Rwanda, 60 %; and South Africa, 55 %. Turkey -new dams and irrigation on Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, affect water flows into Syria and Iraq Egypt -r diversion of water from the Nile, which flows from Ethiopia and Sudan, Water shortages occurring in combination with other sources of tension such as in the Middle East will be the most worrisome..

15 Armed Conflicts Source: PRIO Report 1/99 Conflict areas Dependence on agriculture versus armed conflict Agriculture to GDP Ratio--Countries/Territories 27.0 to 65.5 (62) Margaret Catley-Carlson, 11.3 to 27.0 London, (59) ODI Parliamentary 0 Briefings to 11.1 March (63) 2009

16 CIA Water Hot Spots Map Rich and poor.

17 IPCC Report it s about water mitigation and adaptation impacts on water impacts on water management IWRM the way forward Relative changes in precipitation (by percent) for the period , relative to Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES based on the A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree on the sign of the change.

18 Water Wars The Fate Of The 21 st Century? Ismail Serageldin..the new oil.wars of the 21 st Century will be about water Kofi Annan will this be our next big source of conflict.? Mubarak the only reason Egypt would go to war with the Sudan is water. Is this the future? Where can we expect trouble?

19 4.00 Relative number of natural catastrophes (normalized by the value of the respective trend line of the absolute numbers in 1980) Floods Windstorms Earthquakes Trendlines Floods: 0,0789 x + 0,9211 Slope 8% Windstorms: 0,0458 x + 0,9542 Slope 4% Geophysical events: 0,0186 x + 0,9814 Slope 2% 0.50 x: year (1=1980) Copyright: Geo Risks Research - Munich Re 2009

20 Absolute number of natural catastrophes (according to Munich Re s NatCatService data base) 400 Geophysical events Windstorms Floods = = 2008 Copyright: Geo Risks Research - Munich Re 2009

21 Number of floods C: y = 7,8276x + 91,379 x=1: ---> y(1)=99.21 Copyright: Geo Risks Research - Munich Re Parliamentary Briefings March

22 The number of storm disasters increases twice as much as the number of earthquake disasters. And the number of flood disasters increases (almost) twice as much as the number of storm disasters and four times as much as the number of earthquake disasters. Hence, the different increase in number of events for weather related and geophysicallycaused natural catastrophes indicate the influence of climate change. Copyright: Geo Risks Research - Munich Re 2009

23 Infrastructure it s about water mitigation and adaptation impacts on water impacts on water management IWRM the way forward Investments made today will need to take into account the new climates of the 22 nd century and be designed for the future as well as the present: Dams Canals Tunnels Pipelines ' Wastewater disposal Stormwater drainage Wastewater recycling Desalination

24 Impact on Business Profound Financial Houses Water analysis Mark down of companies NOT taking water into account. Global Compact Business Council on Sustainable Development World Economic Forum.

25 Tough to find the MONEY Water Sector Has Difficulty Maintaining, Building, Extending Services 200% Degree of cost recovery 150% 100% Financial autonomy 50% 0% Telecom Gas Power Water

26 The Big One: Water scarcity and the next global food crises? If present trends continue the livelihoods of one third of the world s population will be affected by water scarcity by We could be facing annual losses equivalent to the entire grain crops of India and the US combined.

27 Regions where water withdrawals are exceeding natural supply Source: UN, Water a shared responsibility, New York 2006

28 We know what we have to do about OIL Substitution Get Green Move to post carbon economy Many stimulus packages focus USA doing better than Canada Watch out energy choices have big water impacts!

29 But what do we do about water?

30 Hard and soft options hard lessons

31 Saudi Arabia scraps wheat growing to save water Reuters Tue Jan 8, :02am RIYADH, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is abandoning a 30-year programme to grow wheat that achieved selfsufficiency but depleted the desert kingdom's scarce water supplies. The government will start reducing purchases of wheat from local farmers by 12.5 percent per year from this year, officials from the agriculture and finance ministries said on Tuesday. The kingdom aims to rely entirely on imports by

32 We can make it worse: Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis : IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts Water for biofuels* Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100% % of potentially utilizable Margaret water Catley-Carlson, withdrawn London, for human ODI purposes *Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

33 We can make it better: Growth in yields United States Chin a Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

34 We do have some answers: Growth in cereal production from yield growths ( ) Source: P.Pinstrup-Andersen, et al. 1999

35 Crop water consumption to 2050 Today Without productivity improvement Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

36 Invest in Irrigation 1. To reduce rural poverty 2. To improve performance of many systems, particularly in South Asia 3. To keep up with changing food demand 4. To adapt to changes water scarcity, competition, climate change, energy 5. To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem services, while reducing negative impacts

37 Investing in Irrigation World Bank lending for irrigation Irrigated Area Living 0 Planet Index Freshwater Species 0. 5 Food price index

38 upgrade rainfed agriculture Dependence on green and blue water 2000

39 Promising Pathways Ensure secure access (including water rights) Targeted investments in pro-poor technologies Local management Informal irrigation, Multiple-use systems Maintaining fisheries, Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure

40 Livestock Water Productivity (Potentially more than doubled and more sustainable) Improved by: Selecting animal feeds that need less water Enhancing animal productivity Improving grazing and watering impact of livestock Through: Integrated investments, development and management of water and livestock

41 Integrated Systems more value per drop Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture Systems. Livestock in irrigation Multifunctional Agriculture Multiple Use Systems

42 There are Technical Answers; Not necessarily implementable solution By common consent, the problem is management. Water is badly or not managed everywhere. No science innovations required to achieve 90% of the desired water management objectives. The last 10 % can be achieved with better monitoring systems, forecasting, data management, GIS.

43 Reform is a negotiated political process high stakes means powerful resistance Whisky is fer drinkin Water is fer fightin Mark Twain

44 The water department don t want to become Water Warriors.

45 Enabling Conditions Cost & affordability Price and profitability Risk market, climate, water availability Markets Reliable supply of water Education Incentives and institutions

46 And our own backyard In North America we do not prize water as highly as oil in terms of its price or the amount of money we invest in exploring, developing, drilling, transporting, refining, or pumping it out of the source and into the multiple vehicles operated by the average American household. We do not pay the full cost of maintaining our water infrastructure, much less account for the full value of water s ecological, economic, or social value in our water utility rates. We subsidize wasteful water projects and consumptive uses, as well as agriculture and ethanol all energyintensive enterprises.

47 Backyard.cont d We charge the same for water whether it is used for drinking or for swimming pools. We do not allow markets to function in a way that would, economically speaking, enable water to flow to the highest and best uses. Finally, we pave paradise, fill wetlands, encroach on flood plains, clear forests, and otherwise disrupt natural flow regimes and the water cycle. And we fail to treat runoff or storm water as a valuable resource that should be retained on site, infiltrated into groundwater, or reused where feasible.

48 /

49 Mitigation = Energy injection

50 Adaptation = Water