Understanding the Barriers to Africa s Green Revolution: A RCT on barriers to take-up. Name removed for anonymity

Transcription

1 Understanding the Barriers to Africa s Green Revolution: A RCT on barriers to take-up Name removed for anonymity

2 Outline Context Background Literature Review Research Proposal Logical Framework Study Design Sample Selection Randomization Measurement References

3 Context High levels of poverty and severe food insecurity in sub-saharan Africa Agricultural productivity growth has not kept pace with population growth Smallholders Low rates of fertilizer use How to increase agricultural productivity? Most land suitable for agriculture is already being farmed Environmental impact of extending farm land Gains in agricultural productivity as proposed solution Gains must be achieved by obtaining higher yields Adoption of new technologies to increase yields Assumption that increases in agricultural productivity stimulate economic growth

4 Background Green Revolution in Asia Driven by introduction of High-yielding Varieties (HYVs) and increased use of fertilizers Use of HYVs spread quickly Yields virtually doubled Population increased by 60% between 1970 and 1995, yet per capita cereal and calorie availability increased by 30% Why is Africa so far behind?

5 Literature Review What are the barriers to a Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa? Low take-up Lack of Investment in agricultural economy Corruption in government Political Instability Poor Infrastructure, high transport costs Low fertilizer use High fertilizer cost Lack of Information Lack of credit Lack of Information Lack of Credit

6 Research Proposal Towards a Green Revolution in Africa - Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) Need: Increased Agricultural Productivity Necessary prerequisites to address this need: Information about high-yielding varieties and fertilizer Credit to enable purchase of HYVs and fertilizer Hypothesis: Access to credit and information will remove the barriers to take up.

7 Logical Framework Output Needs No increase in agricultural Productivity Input Educate Farmers on HYVs and fertilizer use and make credit available Farmers understand advantages of and potential benefits from HYVs and fertilizers and have sufficient funds available to purchase Outcome Famers purchase and plant HYVs and purchase and use fertilizers Impact Higher yields through increased agricultural productivity Goal Improved Food Security

8 Study Design: Multiple Treatments In a randomized sample,apply multiple treatments to measure impact of program Information YES NO Credit YES NO Group 1 Credit & Information Group 3 Only Information Group 2 Only Credit Group 4 Control Group

9 Sample Selection Sub-Saharan Africa Burkina Faso Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Malawi Mali Mozambique Select Countries/ Region based on possibility for funding research, using existing networks and infrastructure Nigeria ( Exemplary Sample Selection based on Gates Foundation/ AGRA) Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zambia Some countries have already seen the implementation of many programs potential interference Account for potential variation across the area Agroecological Differences Differences in farming techniques

10 Randomization (1/2) Example Mali Randomize from sample Randomize at community level Randomly assign 1 of 4 groups Group 1: Credit & Information Group 2: Only Credit Group 3: Only Information Group 4: Control Treatment

11 Randomization (2/2) Group 1: Information and Credit Group 2: Only Credit Group 3: Only Information Group 4: Control Group Pay increased attention to potential spillover effects with information where groups 1 and 3 are geographically close to either group 2 or 4. The potential for spillover effects is not as pronounced with the credit treatment.

12 Measurement Evaluate Impact: Outcome only from treatment Randomization Comparability Control and Treatment groups close enough for comparability Differences in outcomes only from treatment Can take specific characteristics into account when selecting sample Measure baseline, during intervention, at end-point, and follow-up in all groups Process Evaluation Assess impact of education on levels of knowledge about the subject Control for bias through vested interest Spillover Effect Ensure Objectivity in individuals interacting with farmers Control and Treatment groups far enough to avoid spillover effects Control for effect of giving attention Performance while conducting baseline survey in control villages Constructing interventions empty of content to mirror credit and information treatments

13 References (1/2) Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. (n.d.) Where We Work. Retrieved from: Web. Nov 24, Denning G, Kabambe P, Sanchez P, Malik A, Flor R, Harawa R, et al. (2009) Input Subsidies to Improve Smallholder Maize Productivity in Malawi: Toward an African Green Revolution. In PLoS Biol 7(1). Retrieved from: plosbiology/article?id= /journal.pbio Web. Nov 24, Evenson R, Golin D. (May 2, 2003) Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to In Science 300(5620). pp Retrieved from: /content/300/5620/758-. Web. Nov 24, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2016) African Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition Retrieved from: /publications/rofsn-africa/en/. Web. Nov 24, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (n.d.) Towards a New Green Revolution. Retrieved from: Web. Nov 24, 2017.

14 References (2/2) Gates Foundation. (n.d) Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. Retrieved from: Profiles/Grantee-Profile-Alliance-for-a-Green-Revolution-in-Africa-AGRA. Web. Nov 24, International Food Policy Research Institute (n.d.) Green Revolution Curse or Blessing? Web. Nov 24, Retrieved from: ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/ p15738coll2/id/64639/filename/64640.pdf. Kijima Y., Otsuka K., Sserunkuuma D. (January 2011) An Inquiry into Constraints on a Green Revolution in Sub- Saharan Africa: The Case of NERICA Rice in Uganda. In World Development 39(1). pp Web. Nov 24, McArthur, John. (May 4, 2015). Seeds of a green revolution in Africa? Retrieved from: Web. Nov 24, Pan Africa Chemistry Network (September 2012). Increasing Africa s Agricultural Productivity. Web. Nov 24, Retrieved from: PACN%20Africa%20Agri%20Report%20WEB_tcm pdf.