OECD Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture

Transcription

1 OECD Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture Frank van Tongeren Head of Division, Policies in Trade and Agriculture (OECD) EAAE and IATRC conference on GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES Milano, Università degli Studi di Milano, Aula Magna 7-8 August 2015 (29th ICAE pre-conference)

2 Why Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture? Long-run Projections: how will markets develop, and quest for optimal policies have limited value in face of real uncertainty Scenarios to sketch different futures and as a vehicle for exchange Search for robust policies not optimal policies OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2

3 3 Contextual Scenarios 3

4 Times of falling ag prices may be over but increase is probably limited Scenario quantification with 4 global models: ENVISAGE (FAO/WB/Purdue), MAGNET (LEI-WUR) GLOBIOM (IIASA), IMPACT (IFPRI) based on existing SSPs, adjusted to storylines Global real producer prices. Graphs shows historical (black solid line), simulated average (solid lines) and spread (dotted lines) across models and scenarios Source: WB, results from four models,

5 Seven key concerns assessment across scenarios 5

6 Average food availability, kcal/cap/day Average food availability, kcal/cap/day Average food availability, kcal/cap/day Nutrition could improve significantly but separate growth does not work 3,600 3,400 South Asia: Food availability historical Separate Growth 3,600 3,400 Sub-Sah. Africa: Food availability historical Separate Growth 3,600 3,400 South & C. America: Food availability historical Separate Growth 3,200 Sustainability 3,200 Sustainability 3,200 Sustainability 3,000 Globalization 3,000 Globalization 3,000 Globalization 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 2,000 Per capita food availability. Historical data from FAO, simulation results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT. Averages (solid lines) and spread (dotted lines) Source: FAOSTAT, GLOBIOM and IMPACT results,

7 Temporary shocks to food security example Indonesia Low frequency high impact events external shock Avg no of years per occurrence % Undernourished (all Indonesia) Crop failure due to plant infestation Rice price spike in international markets Macroeconomic crisis Increase in international fuel price Earthquake and tsunami in Sumatra Reference without shock 2 13 Policies can be improved (avg across external shocks) Rice Market Price Support Raskin Curre nt Fertilizer subsidy Crop insurance Food voucher Targeted cash transfer % point change in undernourishme Alternati ve policies Microsimulation study using AIDS expenditures system based on SUSENAS. OECD (2015), Managing Food Insecurity Risk: Analytical Framework and Application to Indonesia, OECD Publishing, Paris.DOI: 7

8 Fisheries aquaculture is the future 8

9 Towards more robust policies productivity and sustainability Assess entire policy environment influencing productivity and sustainability of agriculture More than just ag policies! Remove policy-induced obstacles to adjustment Focus on policies improving long-term performance Agricultural Innovation systems (widely defined) Infrastructure; climate proof! 9

10 Towards more robust policies regulatory coherence Best-practices for standard setting to drive international efforts Food regulations, trans-boundary livestock diseases, climate-proof infrastructure, etc. Both at public and private levels (and PPPs) Coherence across countries at different levels Standards and related processes (data, risk assessment) International regulatory cooperation 10

11 Towards more robust policies public & private responsibilities Subsidiarity is fundamental in many policy areas E.g. risk management: clearly define thresholds for governments to intervene in case of extreme (or catastrophic) events, coordinate internationally E.g. in improving the environmental performance of the agricultural sector (resource use, different types of pollution, carbon capturing): differentiate between local, regional and global problems 11

12 Toward more robust policies addressing the demand side Mentalities and lifestyles often important barriers for change Need for better showcasing benefits of innovation, of sustainable consumption, of notifying livestock diseases, etc. 12

13 From high-level outcomes to policy recommendations Scenarios are a tool for exchange Drill down to regional, national and even subnational and city level Involve broader set of stakeholders Challenge your assumptions and develop scenarios further Make policy outcomes actionable Confront with local reality: economics, policies, Look at institutions and political economy Develop first steps together with longer-term strategies 13

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