Ecosystem and Human Well-being:

Transcription

1 Ecosystem and Human Well-being: The key findings and contributions of MA ZHAO Shidong Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences

2 Contents 1. Introduction 2. About MA 3. Definitions 4. Contributions of MA 5. Key findings of MA --- Status and trends of ecosystems --- Scenarios of ecosystems --- Policy responses and options 6. Follow-up activities

3 1. Introduction

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8 Washington Post, March 30, 2005

9 Science Assessment A social process designed to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers Research Assessment Decision-makers Governments Private Sector Civil Society Individuals Monitoring Science A scientific assessment applies the judgment of experts to existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy relevant questions

10 Ecosystem assessment: A social process through which the findings of science concerning the causes of ecosystem change, their consequences for human well-being, and management and policy options are brought to bear on the needs of decision-makers.

11 2. About MA Largest assessment ever undertaken of the health of ecosystems Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries; extensive peer review Consensus of the world s scientists Designed to meet needs of decisionmakers among government, business, civil society Information requested through 4 international conventions

12 Core Questions 1. What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change? 2. What are the consequences of ecosystem change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human-well being? 3. How might ecosystems and their services change over the next 50 years? 4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contributions to human well-being?

13 Criteria for successful assessments Political Legitimacy Scientific Credibility Saliency Focus on User Needs Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

14 Key design features of the MA Political legitimacy Scientific credibility Utility MA Authorized by four conventions and UN Follows IPCC procedures Focus strongly shaped by audience Strong sub-global features FCCC SBSTA Ramsar CCD CBD STRP CST SBSTTA CMS SC IPCC MA Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments

15 MA Timeline Launch and design Core assessment work Review process Board approval UN Launch Release of Conceptual Framework report Release of Assessment Reports

16 Feet 2000 Eiffel Tower Millennium Assessment (Pages end to end) 1000

17 MA Facts Number of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios, Responses, Sub-global): 4 Number of chapters: 81 Number of pages (all publications): ~4,000 Number of experts preparing the assessment: 1,360 (including 50 young fellows) Number of countries with experts involved: 95 Number of Review Editors: 80 Reviews solicited from: 185 countries through 600 national focal points Reviews solicited from: 2,516 experts Number of individual review comments received (and responded to): 20,745 Most individual comments on one chapter: 850 comments (66 pages) on Biodiversity responses chapter. Amount raised: $17 million Annual cost as percent of US Global Climate Change Research Budget: 0.2% Estimated total cost (including in-kind contributions of experts): $25 million

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19 MA International Meetings 2000 Trondheim, Norway 2001 Bilthoven, Netherlands London, UK Cape Town, South Africa 2002 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Paris, France Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago Frascati, Italy New Delhi, India Panama City, Panama Frankfurt, Germany Sao Carlos, Brazil Bangkok, Thailand San Francisco, USA 2003 Manila, Philippines Gland, Switzerland Chantilly, USA Penang, Malaysia Darwin, Australia San Jose, Costa Rica Vancouver, Canada Frankfurt, Germany Stockholm, Sweden Tashkent, Uzbekistan Prague, Czech Republic 2004 Nairobi, Kenya Alexandria Egypt Montreal, Canada Mexico City, Mexico Portland, USA Hamilton, Canada Kuching, Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia London, UK 2005 Rotterdam, Netherlands New York, USA

20 MA Working Groups Condition Working Group What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services? What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human wellbeing? Scenario Working Group Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human wellbeing? Responses Working Group What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems? Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above at sub-global scales

21 MA Organizational Structure MA Board Committees: Executive Budget Communications Review Board Chairs Assessment Panel Working Group Chairs Support Functions Director, Administration, Logistics, Data Management Outreach & Engagement Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Condition Scenarios Response Chapter Review Editors Global Assessment Working Groups

22 What was unique? Multi-Scale Assessment

23 Publications of MA Synthesis Reports (8) Synthesis Board Statement Biodiversity Synthesis Wetlands Synthesis Health Synthesis Desertification Synthesis Business Synthesis Summary for Decision Makers Technical Volumes and MA Conceptual Framework (Island Press) (5) Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: A Framework for Assessment State and Trends Scenarios Multi-Scale Assessments Responses

24 Synthesis Reports Board Statement MA Conceptual Framework Technical Assessment Volumes

25 3. Definitions Ecosystem A dynamic complex of plant, animal, and microorganism communities and their nonliving environment interacting as a functional unit.

26 Definitions Ecosystem services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services ( food and water); regulating services ( flood and disease control ); cultural services ( spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits); and supporting services ( nutrient cycling ) that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. It is synonymous of goods and services of ecosystem.

27 What was unique? Ecosystem services Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand

28 Provisioning Services Goods produced or provided by ecosystems Food Fiber Crops Livestock Capture Fisheries Aquaculture Wild Foods Timber Cotton, hemp, silk Wood Fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Freshwater Photo credit (top): Tran Thi Hoa (World Bank),

29 Regulating Services Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes Air Quality Regulation Climate Regulation Global (CO 2 sequestration) Regional and local Erosion regulation Water purification Disease regulation Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation

30 Cultural Services Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems Spiritual and Religious Values Knowledge Systems Educational values Inspiration Aesthetic Values Social Relations Sense of Place Recreation and Ecotourism Photo credits ( top to bottom): W. Reid, Mary Frost, Staffan Widstrand, unknown.

31 Definition Supporting services Ecosystem services that are necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services, including biomass production, production of atmospheric oxygen, soil formation and retention, nutrient cycling, water cycling, and provisioning of habitat.

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33 Definition Human Well-being: A context- and situationdependent state, comprising basic material for a good life, freedom and choice, health, good social relations, and security.

34 Definiton Biodiversity: The variability among living organisms from all sources including terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; includes diversity within and among species and diversity within and among ecosystems.

35 Definiton Ecological footprint: The area of productive land and aquatic ecosystems required to produce the resources used and to assimilate the wastes produced by a defined population at a specified material standard of living, wherever on Earth that land may be located.

36 4. Contributions of MA Promoted the development of ecology into a new stage characterized by studying the relationships between ecosystems, ecosystem services and human well-being.

37 Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

38 4. Contributions of MA Developed the approaches and methods of ecosystem assessment

39 MA Framework Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction Basic material for a good life Health Human Well-being Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and institutional Indirect framework) Science Drivers and Technology Cultural and Religious Ecosystem Services Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Direct Drivers Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

40 4. Contributions of MA : Key Findings--- Living Beyond Our Means Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people

41 Key Findings--- Living Beyond Our Means The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals of UN The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met under some scenarios that the MA has considered but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices, that are not currently under way

42 5. Key findings of MA Status and trends of ecosystems Enhanced Degraded Mixed Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & religious Aesthetic values Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation & ecotourism Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded

43 Trade-offs Among Services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Enhanced Degraded Mixed Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & religious Aesthetic values Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation & ecotourism Provisioning services are being enhanced at the cost of regulating & cultural services

44 Crops Status: Enhanced Index (1961 = 100) Food Production Food Production per Capita Food Price Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

45 Capture Fisheries Status: Degraded Photo Credit (left): UNEP

46 Status of Marine Fish Stocks 60% 50% Fully Exploited, 47% 40% 30% 20% Moderately Exploited, 21% Overexploited, 28% 10% Underexploited, 4% 0% Source: FAO 2000

47 Climate Regulation (Global) Status: Enhanced Terrestrial ecosystems have been net carbon sink since mid-1990s, but previously were net carbon source Peta grams carbon Fossil Fuel Land Use Sources Atmosphere Oceans Terrestrial Sinks Sources and Sinks of Carbon over Past Two Centuries Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

48 Climate Regulation (Global) Status: Enhanced Gigatons carbon per year Fossil Fuel Atmosphere Oceans Terrestrial Land Use Sources Sinks Sources and Sinks of Carbon in 1990s Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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53 Scale of Change 20% of the world s coral reefs were lost and more than 20% degraded 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decades Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960

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57 Source: NOAA Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone

58 Change in Species Diversity Number per Thousand Species Number of Species to fold increase North America Europe Fossil Recent Future Extinctions (per thousand years) Homogenization (e.g. growth in marine species introductions) Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

59 Freshwater Status: Degraded 15 35% of Irrigation Withdrawals Unsustainable (low to medium certainty)

60 Natural Hazard Regulation Status: Degraded Flood events per decade s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s Asia Americas Africa Europe Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

61 Increased likelihood of abrupt changes (established but incomplete evidence) Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Coral reef regime shifts Disease emergence Species introductions Regional climate change Atlantic Cod off Newfoundland

62 Economic and health costs of degradation can be substantial Cost of damage of UK agriculture to other ecosystem services $2.6 billion (10% of farm receipts) Cost of collapse of the cod fishery in Canada $2 billion in income support and retraining; loss of tens of thousands of jobs Introduction of Zebra mussels into aquatic ecosystems in the US $100 million annual costs to power industry

63 Trade-offs among ecosystem services Mangrove Services: nursery and adult fishery habitat fuelwood & timber carbon sequestration housing traps sediment detoxifies pollutants protection from erosion & disaster shrimp Mangrove ecosystem crops

64 $4000 Value (per hectare) Private Public Net Present Value per hectare Mangrove: $91 $1,000 to $3,600 Shrimp Farm: $2000 $-5,400 to $200 $2000 Coastal Protection (~$3,840) Net: $2,000 (Gross $17,900 less costs of $15,900) 0 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Sathirathai and Barbier 2001 Fishery nursery ($70) Timber and Nontimber products ($90) Mangrove Conversion Mangrove Shrimp Farm Less Source: subsidies UNEP (-$1,700) Pollution Costs (-$230) Restoration (-$8,240)

65 Economic value of non-marketed services can be high Italy Forests in Italy Forests Croatiain Croatia Passive use values Carbon sequestration Watershed protection Recreation and hunting Passive use values Carbon sequestration Watershed protection Recreation and hunting NTFPs NTFPs Grazing Grazing Timber and fuelwood Timber and fuelwood Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Economic Value Economic ($ per hectare) Value ($ per hectare) Photo: W. Reid

66 Many services are public goods Spiritual & religious Aesthetic?? Economic Valuation Private Benefit Capture Flood/Fire regulation Disease regulation?? Difficult or impossible Difficult Water purification? Climate regulation? Freshwater? Genetic Resources? Recreation & tourism? Fiber? Easy Easy Food? Economic Value ($)

67 Impact on Poor and Marginalized People Poor people are most dependent on ecosystem services and most vulnerable to degradation of the services Photo credit: Uittapron Juntawonsup/UNEP

68 Impact on Poor and Marginalized People Per capita food production declining in sub-saharan Africa Number of undernourished people worldwide increasing Water scarcity affects 1 in every 3 people worldwide 1.1 billion people lack access to improved water supply Half the developing country urban population suffers from diseases associated with water and sanitation Malaria responsible for 11% of the burden of disease in Africa

69 Critical concern drylands 40% of land surface and more than 2 billion inhabitants Lowest levels of human well-being 10-20% of drylands degraded Only 8% of renewable water supply

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71 Dryland Systems: Highest population growth in 1990 s Percent population growth ( ) Net primary productivity (kg/sq m/yr) 0 Drylands Mountain Coastal Cultivated Forests Island 0 %pop growth NPP Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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