39 Side-events. Employment and agricultural value chains. 17 th October pm Lebanon room

Transcription

1 39 Side-events Employment and agricultural value chains 17 th October pm Lebanon room

2 Chair Nicolas Bricas (Cirad) Introduction Mathilde Douillet (FARM) Employment and agriculture: what is the challenge? Bruno Losch (Cirad and World Bank) Round table : Jennifer Leavy (Future Agricultures Consortium, IDS, University of Sussex) Tobias Takavarasha (NEPAD Agency) Edmundo Werna (ILO) Final remarks Olivier de Schutter (UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food)

3 Employment, Activities, and Rural Incomes: Another Approach to Food Security Lessons from the RuralStruc Program with a Specific Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa Bruno Losch (World Bank, Cirad)

4 1. PRESENTING THE TOOLS: PROGRAM S DESIGN

5 Overview 5-year study and research program ( ) named RuralStruc (for Rural Structures) A comparative work with 7 countries at different stages of structural transformation Mali, Senegal, Madagascar, Kenya, Morocco, Nicaragua, and Mexico A collaborative work engaging 7 national teams Two governance bodies and a multi-donor Trust Fund

6 Design Two phases Phase I ( ): Desktop reviews Phase II ( ): Regional and VC case studies, rural HH surveys Household surveys 7 countries, 26 regions, about 8,000 HH One shot survey (no panel data) but same methodology and implementation at the same time A unique representation of rural income structures and rural diversification A merged dataset accessible on line:

7 2. SETTING THE SCENE: A FOCUS ON AFRICA S CHALLENGES

8 Two Historical Challenges in Today s World Historical transition processes are not replicable Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are confronted simultaneously with: An incipient economic transition An incomplete demographic transition => In a context of: High international competition related to globalization Growing constraints associated with climate change and environmental degradation The failure of the catching-up ideology : No convergence Unsustainable pathways 8

9 Share of Agriculture in GDP and in EAP ( in %)

10 Yearly Cohort (Million) Cohorts Entering the Labor Market by Region Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Population Prospects, 2008 revision RuralStruc Program 10

11 Labor Market Entrants (1/10 of the age group in million) % Jobseekers in SSA will be mainly rural until Source: World Population Prospects, 2010 revision RuralStruc Program rural urban rural population (%) - Today 11m out of 17 m new labor market entrants live in rural areas - By 2025, m young people will enter the labor market: 200 m in rural areas and 130 m in cities 11

12 3. RURAL TRANSFORMATION: WHERE DO WE STAND?

13 Median of Income per Capita (in the surveyed regions - $ PPP)

14 Income structure by Region and Quintiles (% of overall income in $PPP per EqA) Legend Rents Priv. Transfers Non Ag Wages Ag Wages Publ. transfers Self Empl. On farm

15 The on-farm side Farm Output Breakdown by Self-consumption and Main Sales => Share of self-consumption and importance of staples

16 The off-farm side Average Regional Value and Share of Off-farm Income => Strong off-farm diversification and very low returns

17 Market Access in SSA (Travel times to the nearest city of 50,000) Densities are not enough Urbanization must provide public goods and not only agglomeration The role of the missing middle (small cities)

18 Household Diversification The income diversification relationship Household Income In SSA, high level of risks (market imperfections) and limited economic opportunities constrain households returns and options => it suggests possible poverty traps for low income farmers

19 4. AGRICULTURE & RURAL TRANSFORMATION FOR AFRICA: HOW TO SUPPORT JOB CREATION?

20 How to Help Rural Transformation? (1) From the long shopping list of policy measures to prioritization and targeting Public policies must deal with big numbers => almost 200 M new rural workers by 2025 and target an inclusive and sustainable growth process This core objective shapes the priorities for agriculture, in terms of strategic choices regarding: 20

21 How to Help Rural Transformation? (2) The type of development model Family farms must be a priority Smallholders are the bulk and the buffer but they can develop with adequate policy support which is imperative due to poverty levels They have comparative advantages, and they can be competitive The small vs. large scale debate must include employment issues Modernization (intensification and mechanization) must deal with both employment and environment New pathways for ag. development are needed: e.g. agro-ecological intensification 21

22 How to Help Rural Transformation? (3) The type of markets: Staples must be a priority Every farm household is engaged in staple crops Increased food production at the household level allows risk alleviation and unlocks diversification SSA s domestic demand for staples is huge Food products have a strong potential for local transformation which is a major sector of job creation A caveat: this choice is obviously not exclusive. Other opportunities when they exist must be seized

23 How to Help Rural Transformation? (4) The necessary territorial approach Support to agriculture must be part of a broader support to rural development fostering local value addition and rural-urban linkages, and promoting environmental services New evidence on the potential of the missing middle (i.e., small cities and rural boroughs with strong local linkages ) Need to strengthen the territorial approach: with specific investments (public goods) and support to local private investors And empowerment of local institutions

24 How to Help Rural Transformation? (5) The imperative reinvestment in strategies No one-fits-all solutions the tragedy of SSA s statistical systems : Reinvest in knowledge creation in order to draft better-informed scenarios (information systems, new analytical frameworks) => e.g. WAW initiative (World Agriculture Watch) Rearticulate sectoral policies within development strategies (develop long-term vision and medium-term policy frameworks) Reengage in building local capacities for policy making, in order to foster ownership and strengthen institutions 24

25 Thank you for your attention

26 Chair Nicolas Bricas (Cirad) Introduction Mathilde Douillet (FARM) Employment and agriculture: what is the challenge? Bruno Losch (Cirad and World Bank) Round table : Jennifer Leavy (Future Agricultures Consortium, IDS, University of Sussex) Tobias Takavarasha (NEPAD Agency) Edmundo Werna (ILO) Final remarks Olivier de Schutter (UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food)

27 Young People and the Agri-Food Sector Jennifer Leavy (Future Agricultures Consortium, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton) Rome 17 th October 2012

28 Rome 17 th October 2012 Future Agricultures Consortium Established mid-2005; DFID Start-up funding UK-based consortium members IDS (secretariat/host), ODI, and SOAS African partners across range of organisations and countries including: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Ghana, South Africa Ten themes: young people and agrifood; social protection; climate change; commercialisations; policy processes; pastoralism; technology; land; climate change; gender.

29 Rome 17 th October 2012 Young People and Agrifood Theme Objectives Analyse framings and narratives present in policy processes linking young people with agriculture Identify key hypotheses emerging from such framings and narratives Reframing of the young-people agriculture nexus as a more forward-looking, agri-food framing Build evidence base on young people s engagement with the agri-food sector in SSA. Policy engagement activities in-country, regionally, continentwide

30 Young People, Farming and Food Conference March , Accra Main messages, next steps The young people and agriculture problem in Africa typified by: 1. the profile of certain problems and the imperative to address them quickly through policy, become separated from evidence and understanding. 2. policy advocates and policy makers rely heavily on common knowledge, anecdote and narrative to develop and argue policy alternatives. unlikely to result in good policy and development outcomes important to consider how policy responses articulate with ongoing economic, political and social transitions AND young people s own imperatives, aspirations, strategies and activities

31 Rome 17 th October 2012 IDS Bulletin Special issue: Vol 43.6 November 2012 Other work Life in a time of Food Price Volatility: Future Farmers special study on youth

32 Chair Nicolas Bricas (Cirad) Introduction Mathilde Douillet (FARM) Employment and agriculture: what is the challenge? Bruno Losch (Cirad and World Bank) Round table : Jennifer Leavy (Future Agricultures Consortium, IDS, University of Sussex) Tobias Takavarasha (NEPAD Agency) Edmundo Werna (ILO) Final remarks Olivier de Schutter (UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food)