Potatoes and planetary boundaries

Transcription

1 Potatoes and planetary boundaries Mark Lynas Environmentalist and author, The God Species

2 The 2050 Challenge: 9.5 billion people living out of poverty and at Western levels of consumption Within the planetary boundaries!

3 1. Biodiversity boundary DANGER! Boundary breached Proposed boundary: Extinction rate <10 species per million/yr Latest data: >100 species per million/yr

4 2. Climate change boundary DANGER! Boundary breached Proposed boundary: 350 ppmco 2 in atmosphere Latest data: 391 ppmco 2 in atmosphere

5 3. Nitrogen boundary Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, the Haber-Bosch Process Nobel prizes 1918 and 1931 DANGER! Proposed boundary: 35 million tonnes/yr of N 2 Latest data: 121 million tonnes/yr of N 2 Boundary breached N 2 + 3H 2 = 2NH 3

6 4. Land-use boundary WARNING! Proposed boundary: 15% land surface to cropland Boundary close Latest data: 12% land surface to cropland Ecological biomes Anthropogenic biomes Ellis, E. et al., 2010: Anthropogenic transformation of the biomes, 1700 to 2000, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 5, 589

7 5. Freshwater boundary SOME SPACE LEFT! Proposed boundary: 4,000 km 3 /yr consumptive use Latest data: 2,600 km 3 /yr consumptive use

8 UNQUANTIFIED! 6. Aerosols boundary

9 7. Toxics boundary UNQUANTIFIED!

10 8. Ocean acidification boundary WARNING! Boundary close Proposed boundary: 2.75 global oceanic aragonite saturation ratio Latest data: 2.90 global oceanic aragonite saturation ratio (pre-industrial = 3.44)

11 9. Ozone layer boundary SUCCESS! BOUNDARY AVOIDED! Proposed boundary: 276 Dobson units, ozone concentration stratosphere Latest data: 283 Dobson units, ozone concentration stratosphere Thomas Midgley inventor of CFCs (pre-industrial = 290)

12 The 2050 Challenge: 9.5 billion people living out of poverty and at Western levels of consumption Within the planetary boundaries!

13 Progress so far: Poverty People on less than $1.25/day in 1990: 43% People on less than $1.25/day in 2008: 22% Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty reached in 2010, 5 years early -China, 1981: 835 million in poverty -China, 2008: 173 million in poverty Half a billion Chinese escaped poverty in 25 years!

14 Rapid economic growth Country Average GDP % change/yr Country Average GDP % change/yr Rwanda 7.6 United Kingdom 1.8 Sierra Leone 8.8 United States 1.8 Zambia 5.6 Netherlands 1.6 Bangladesh 5.9 Norway 1.7 Peru 6.1 Congo DR 5.3 China 10.8 Chad 9.0 India 8.0 Ethiopia 8.8 Brazil 3.7 Vietnam 7.5 Russia 5.4 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2012

15 Commodity prices jump World Bank commodity price index, 2005= Food: Grains Fertilizers Food Raw materials Agriculture Energy Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2012

16 Population growth truth stranger than fiction Quiz: what do you think the current fertility rate is in terms of its global average? A: 4.5 B: 3.5 C: 2.5 D: 1.5 Remember: natural replacement level is 2.1 children per woman. Answer: 2.5

17 Sustainable intensification productivity matters Agricultural land, % of land area Fertiliser consumption, million tonnes Cereal yield, kg/hectare EU ,490 5,685 India ,891 2,537 China ,325 5,521 Sub-Saharan Africa ,033 1,335 USA ,755 6,988 World ,756 3,568 Sources: FAOSTAT, World Bank, IFA

18 Potato planetary boundaries Potato 4 th most important food crop after wheat, rice, maize Eaten by 1 billion people, energy-rich, high in nutrients Major increases in developing countries, esp. China 7x more water-efficient than cereals Can produce 2-4x food quantity of grain crops per hectare

19 Challenges Yields doubled , but have flatlined since then Major yield gaps: 41 t/ha in US; 10 t/ha Africa Pests, especially late blight, cause $10 billion annual losses Blight control can mean 15 sprays per season UK figures: Potato Council GM blight resistance could reduce toxic applications, increase yields

20 Conclusions meeting the 2050 Challenge Productivity is key for resource efficiency land, water, N; new technologies essential Absolute production must increase by 100% at minimum to feed 9.5 billion Most important technology change probably in genome of crop, + need Green Revolution in Africa Must avoid black/white thinking e.g. organic/conventional; GM/non-GM; local/global food Vast business opportunity as emerging middle class in all developing countries leaves poverty behind