Aslihan Arslan, PhD. Agricultural Development Economics Division-FAO. Todd S. Rosenstock, Christine Lamanna and Meryl Richards.

Transcription

1 Climate-Smart Agriculture: A systematic review protocol for the scientific basis Adaptation Futures Practices and Solutions Societal responses to climate change in agriculture Rotterdam, May 2016 Aslihan Arslan, PhD Agricultural Development Economics Division-FAO Todd S. Rosenstock, Christine Lamanna and Meryl Richards Outline CSA history and introduction Multiple objectives (Too many?) What s CSA vs. not? (False dilemma?) CSA Compendium Initiative Preliminary results Next Steps 1

2 CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE - Not just a set of practices BUT an approach to help guide actions to transform and re-orient agricultural systems to effectively support sustainable intensification of agriculture and improved incomes under the new conditions of climate change SUSTAINABLY INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME ADAPTING AND BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCING AND/OR REMOVING GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS WHERE POSSIBLE Evolution of CSA Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies Climate-smart Agriculture: Policies, Practices and Financing for Food Security, Adaptation and Mitigation Climate-smart Agriculture Sourcebook 2014 FAO Success Stories on Climate-smart Agriculture 2014 Launch of the Global Alliance for CSA at UN Climate Summit in NY 2

3 Why do we need it? World s population will increase by one-third by 2050 FAO estimates that agricultural production will have to increase by 60% by then Agriculture in developing countries should undergo a significant transformation to feed the growing global population Climate change adds extra challenges in reaching this goal 5 Too Many Objectives? Prioritizing the multiple objectives of CSA depends on the role of agriculture in economy and society. In low income, highly agriculture-dependent economies, where CC impacts are estimated to be significant and negative, CSA approach to agricultural growth prioritizes food security incorporating necessary adaptation, and capturing potential mitigation co-benefits 6 3

4 Not CSA? CSA Context & priorities Many interventions can be climate-smart somewhere But none are likely climate-smart everywhere Rosenstock & Lamanna CSA Compendium for Scientific Basis Need to establish the scientific basis for CSA based on all relevant published literature to document: Food Security Adaptation/resilience Mitigation benefits of a large set of practices claimed to be CSA in current policy/practice discourse for effective policies ICRAF-CCAFS started the initiative in 2012 University of Vermont, CIFOR, CIAT, FAO joined forces CSA meta-data for Africa is finalized 4

5 CSA related search terms used in Web of Science & Scopus 1/6/2016 W ord Cloud G enerator capacity grain Time irrigation yield gas input agr index zone crop feed post improv flow cash access man Risk salt CO2 efficien micro N2 use biosolid food per tree covercrop root income residue energy fix farm amendment alley additive l belt fruit female soil bioinput nutrition cost zero graz net nut cover till fallow relation gender nwater biochar knowledge adapt gain harvest women catch non species carbon grasslegume precipitation analy tax rate shrub pest added groundcover day labo seed heat understor lack Paste your text below! preference*" "cultur* norm*" "improved information" "technolog* access" "cultur* "cultur* taboo*" "cultur* inertia" "social capital" "input* access*" adopt* disadopt* attrition* pseudo adopt* innovator* "early majorit*" "late majorit*" laggard* diffusion "ab on* technique*" "new technique*" "poor enforc*" "poor compliance" corrupt* governance (gender norm*) (gender perception*) (gender belie*) (gender attitude*) (women norm*) (women perception*) (women belie*) (women attitude*) "benefit* sharing" "transaction cost*" "price volatil*" "human capital" "ecological dynamic*" "technical knowledge" "technical training" "special* training" "rainfall unpredictable" "temperature CSA Compendium by the numbers Photo: K. Tully Key word search 145k papers Abstract/title review 16k papers Full text review 1.9k Papers (Africa) ~90k data points Rosenstock et al. 2016a 5

6 Resilience SOC (Effect size) Rosenstock et al. 2016b measured both outcomes, because the impact of management practices depends on location and thus it is spurious to compare results of studies between locations in CSA compendium enables analyses considering multiple objectives, Tradeoffs Synergies 15% 56% -Net returns +soil C +Yield +soil C Yield -women s labor 11% 19% 1.0 Tradeoffs Productivity Productivity (Effect size) including analysis of mitigation co-benefits Co-benefits found between changes in yield and changes in soil carbon sequestration in 34 field experiment lasting longer than 4 years in developing countries. Richards et al. in prep 6

7 Effect Size Supports prioritization for determining best fits Adaptation Impact Only Equal Emphasis Productivity Impact Only Lamanna and Rosenstock in prep Barriers to adoption Even if we have the scientific basis to identify CSA practices in a specific context Adoption is not automatic social context & institutions matter! Initiative is extended to include a joint metaanalysis on barriers to adoption 150 published articles on adoption analyses in Africa included in complementary meta-data (after screening >400 articles from Scopus) 7

8 Agronomy What matters for adoption? Determinants Not signif. Negative Positive Total % - signif. % + signif. Information Resource endowments Risk and shocks Bio-physical factors Distance to market/road Socio-demographics , Groups/social capital Tenure security Labor availability Credit access Total 2, ,070 4, Arslan et al. in prep Online CSA Compendium Tool Next step: Searchable internet-based database Climate-Smart Agriculture Decision Support Platform Home Where we work Database Analytical Tools Keywords Region Sub-Saharan Africa Country Tanzania Agroecological zone Sub-humid Threats Drought Practice Intercropping Farming system Mixed maize CSA objective X Productivity X Adaptation X Mitigation 8

9 What s next? Finalize meta-analysis & high impact paper Finalize the online tool & introduce to policy makers in NEPAD/FAO policy dialogue in September 2016 Support Global & African CSA Alliances Streamline method and tool for wider dissemination Continue providing ad-hoc national support for CSA strategies Thank you! 9

10 Management measure Practice Description Agronomy Soil management Conservation agriculture Combination of three practices: reduced soil disturbance, crop rotation, and continuous soil cover Nutrient management Organic and inorganic fertilizer Using a combination of both organic and inorganic inputs Manure Application of animal manure to the field or pasture either through direct deposition or through purposeful transfer Diversification Intercropping with legumes Intercropping with leguminous crops Crop rotations Increase in the number and kind of crops in the rotation Agroforestry Intercropping Multi-strata Several strata of trees occupied by tree crops (coffee, tea, cacao, etc.) with shade trees that include two or more vegetation layers and more than one tree species Alley cropping with Intercropping with N-fixing trees leguminous trees Boundary planting Hedgerows, windbreaks, living fences Planting trees or shrubs on edges of fields Livestock Pasture management Rotational grazing Supervised grazing where livestock are moved between paddock to allow vegetation regeneration Diet management Increased protein content Feeding practices to increase quantity of protein in livestock diets Indicators Rationale Example Productivity Yield Direct measure of system productivity and food availability Crop yield (kg/ha/yr); Weight gain (kg/time); Milk production (L/cow/day) Income Increased income increases food accessibility and can contribute to poverty Net Present Value; Household energy costs ($/yr); Net Returns ($/ha/yr); Payback Period (yrs) alleviation Food Security Individual or household consumption Consumption (Kcal/pers/day); Food Deficit (Kcal/pers/day) Resilience/adaptive capacity (biophysical, economic and social) Soil resources Soil is the mediating factor for crop growth and regulates structural, physical, and Soil Organic Carbon (g/m 3 ); Erosion losses (t soil/ha/yr) chemical properties of fields Resource efficiency Reduces reliance on inputs Nutrient use efficiency (g/kg); Protein utilization (%); Water use efficiency (kg yield/mm rainfall) Gender Workload Person-hours (hrs/ha/yr); Value of labor ($/hr) Mitigation GHG emissions Reduces production of GHGs in the atmosphere from agriculture CO 2 flux (Mg C ha -2 yr -1 ); N 2 O flux (kg N ha -2 yr -1 ) Carbon stocks Removals or emissions of biosphere- Aboveground biomass (Mg/ha); Soil organic carbon 10