Early warning strategies in climate change impact

Transcription

1 Early warning strategies in climate change impact Hans Marvin (RIKILT Institute of Food Safety) International conference on Food Safety and Security under Changing Climate, Penang, Malaysia, December 6-7, 2010

2 SELAMAT network; some background Started as EU FP6 project in 2004 Continued as sustainable network in 2008 The overall aim: To create a permanent network for international cooperation on food safety issues between Europe and ASEM. This Network aims to: Promote European and Asian collaboration on food safety issues Contribute opening up the European Research Area Mobilise the European and Asian Research Communities to support Communities and Asian foreign and development policies Develop common research agenda and initiate joint initiatives

3 SELAMAT network; some background EU-ASEM Food Safety Platform with the following characteristics: Direct access to top experts on many expertise fields in EU and Asia Influence in research agenda setting Easy access to outcomes of EU frame work programs and ASEM counterpart Means to extend existing network Discuss sensitive information informally Activities, training courses, workshops, joint research, exchange of personnel,.. OPEN FOR NEW MEMBERS!

4 Outline of the lecture Effect of Climate Change on Food Safety Systems to identify food safety risks at an early stage Reactive systems Proactive systems Holistic principle GEMIS Conclusions

5 Projected effects of Climate change Food production (due to elevated temperatures and increased CO 2 levels) Differences per region Temperate regions; an increase (e.g. Europe, Canada, China [5-12%]) (sub) tropical region; a decrease (e.g. India, Mexico, south-africa, Ethiopia [21-29%] Fluctuations in food production and food prices Diseases and plagues (shifting and new) Food safety Changing ecosystems Employment Migration

6 Changing temperature of land and sea in Europe

7 Projected temperature increase (land) in Europe

8 Increasing floods in Europe

9 Effect of Climate change on food safety Most relevant climate factors 1. Precipitation 2. Temperature (land en water) 3. Drought 4. Weather extremes 5. CO levels 2 6. Floods

10 Examples of expected food safety problems Climate change : Increase growth of weeds, plant diseases and effect of pesticides => risk of more residues Increased prevalence of natural toxins (mycotonins, phycotoxins (toxins of algua e.g. Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB), phytotoxins (plant toxins such as glycoalkaloids, pyrrolididine alkaloids) Increased contamination of surface water (e.g. heavy metals, PAHs, PCBs, etc. Katrina) => uptake by crops Increased bioavailability of contaminants (e.g. Hg with increasing temperature) Increase of animal diseases => increase use of veterinary drugs Increase of microbial infections as a consequent of increasing temperature (e.g. E. coli O157, Campylobacter, Salmonella) Growth of microorganisms in the fresh chain

11 Potential food safety risks imposed by climate change (non exhausted) New, higher levels or from other sources: Pesticides Environmental contaminants Heavy metals, dioxins, PCBs, mycotoxins Veterinary drug residues in foods Bacteria and viruses Marine toxins

12 Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage Reactive systems Hazard based systems Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) Exchange of information between nations Searching for information Proactive systems Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment Holistic approach Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

13 Reactive systems: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) Centralized system Required by General Food Law 178/2002/EC Members: EU, EFTA, Commission (30 countries involved) Notifications Alerts of importance for other member states Actions can be taken Information that can be contained by member Border rejections Weekly and annual reports on website Reported hazards are known webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasff-window/portal/ window/portal/

14 RASFF trend analysis (performed by RIKILT (risk assessors) Objective: Can data be used for trend analysis? Links between hazards and other parameters? Published research Four-years study (Mid 2003 Mid 2007) Number of records processed: 11,430 Updated database Six years (Mid 2003 Mid 2009) Number of records: 17,537 For mycotoxins: 5251 reports

15 RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports Mycotoxin notification categories RASFF, July June % 21% Alert Border rejections Information 71% Adapted from Kleter 2010

16 RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports Timeline (per quarter-year) of mycotoxin notifications RASFF, July June Total hazards Mycotoxin hazard # of notifications Most of the reports (95%) referred to Aflatoxins and were found on nuts (74%), fruit and processed fruit (8%), and spices (6%) Adapted from Kleter 2010

17 RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports Origin of mycotoxin-containing products RASFF, July June % 1% 14% Iran Turkey Main products Iran: 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 7% 33% China USA India Argentina Brazil Egypt Ghana Nigeria Italy pistachio Turkey: hazelnut/ pistachio/ dried fig China: peanut/ groundnut 9% 18% Pakistan Others (88)

18 Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage Reactive systems Hazard based systems Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) Exchange of information between nations Searching for information Proactive systems Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment Holistic approach Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

19 Reactive systems; search engines EU: European Media Monitor (EMM) operated by Joint Research Centre (JRC) Publications collected, filtered & classified, presented & visualized, trend analysis => alerts

20 Search engine; EMM as example (real time events in news)

21 Search engine; EMM as example (Med Sys; alerts)

22 Search engine/data source example: ProMED Alerts in ProMED mail: human, animal and plant health diseases; example sugar beet diseases in UK ; fungus growth depends on temperature and humidity = > use of fungicides

23 Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage Reactive systems Hazard based systems Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) Exchange of information between nations Searching for information Proactive systems Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment Holistic approach Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

24 Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach Look at influences inside and outside the food chain Projects developing this approach for the early identification of foodborne risks: EU 6th FP: PERIAPT EU 6th FP: SAFE FOODS; Workpackage 2 EFSA: EMRISK Dutch project: Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain

25 Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach Sectors influencing food production & food safety Science & Technology Environment & Energy Government & Politics Information & Communication Food Chain(s) Industry & Trade Economy & Finance Population & Social conditions Agriculture Health & Welfare Source: Wim Ooms VWA, 2006

26 Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach Pro-active holistic approach (some examples) Increased production increased disease pressure antibiotic use risk. Indicator: increased production. Source: FAO, EUROSTAT Increased small scale production lack of knowledge misuse risk. Indicator: increased small scale production; Source: FAO More resistant strains other antibiotics new risk. Indicator: more resistant strains; Source: science programs Lack of international harmonised legislation zero tolerance risk.

27 Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach Pro-active holistic approach (examples) Conclusions from the case studies In every case study influential sectors were identified. Most frequent influential sectors were: Science and technology Human behavior Nature and environment Legislation & economy Many indicators (and related data sources) were identified, generic and case-specific Emerging risk systems based on holistic principle seem promising but need much more research

28 Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage Reactive systems Hazard based systems Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) Exchange of information between nations Searching for information Proactive systems Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment Holistic approach Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

29 Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM) Projects at WUR: To develop a system aimed at pro-actively identifying emerging mycotoxins (and prevents them from becoming risks) Characteristics: Anticipatory instead of responsive approach Different from, but not a replacement of, current systems Approach may use indicators Holistic approach

30 Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM) Work performed in EU project MYCONET Starting from Fusarium spp. related toxins In European wheat based feed/food supply chains 12 key indicators selected for each stage Cultivation; transport and storage; processing Consensus among expert panel Semi-quantitative ranking of indicators Potential interactions defined Cultivation is the most important stage Most indicators relevant for known mycotoxins, but. some additional selected These might be of especial importance for EM

31 Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM) Key indicators for EM in wheat cultivation Indicator (Cultivation stage) Total score (N=24) Median Average SD Relative humidity/rainfall (air and soil) Crop rotation Temperature Tillage practice Water activity in kernels Crop variety / Cultivars Harvest conditions Changes in composition of fungal populations Pesticide/fungicide use Plant health (stress factors) Regional infection pressure Awareness of food safety

32 Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM) Model development Based on the key-indicators Using data from information sources The model should handle Different types of information quantitative and qualitative technical and expert information Region specific information Different levels of information detail (time, space)

33 Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM) How does it look? Maps of Europe Input maps for indicators (can be any relevant indicator) e.g. weather, wheat cultivar, storage quality, fungal species Modeling tool to assess EM occurrence, based on region specific indicator information Output maps for assessed occurrence of EM Scenarios ( what if ) can be added, e.g., regarding climate change, area grain, biofuel production

34 Geographic EM Identification System (GEMIS) EM map EM model databases indicator 1 maps 2 3 what if scenarios

35 Demo GEMIS (1) Input: Flowering date Output: Prediction Mycotoxin level

36 Demo GEMIS: scenario analyses Prediction of Mycotoxin levels at +2 C temperature & +3 mm rainfall

37 Conclusions Climate change will have an effect on food safety Current early warning systems should be able to identify an emerging food safety risk Holistic approach to predict food safety risks seems feasible but further research is need to develop systems based on this principle

38 Acknowledgement The authors wish to thank: Dr. Ine Fels-Klerx Colleagues at RIKILT and FBR Colleagues at Wageningen University and Researchcentre (WUR) MYCONET partners

39 Thank you for your attention Terima kasih atas perhatian anda Wageningen UR