Australian Horticulture Price Update. Summer 2019

Transcription

1 Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19

2 Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19 Australian horticultural industries make a significant contribution to Australia s economy. Horticulture accounts for 15.8 per cent of the value of Australian agricultural production and 4.4 per cent of agricultural exports. In the summer period, tropical fruit, berries, grapes, leafy vegetables and nightshade vegetables such as capsicums and chillies are among the categories that are prominent in horticultural markets. The price trends of these summer categories are the focus of this report. Summer seasonal conditions have been hotter and drier than usual. This has assisted with ripening fruit and vegetables particularly berries, mangoes and cherry tomatoes. However, the heat and lack of rain could provide ongoing challenges in managing the overall health of tree crops in the coming months. About the research About Ag Answers Ag Answers is a specialist insights division of Rural Bank. Recognising that good information is the key to making good business decisions, Ag Answers provides research and analysis into commodities, farmland values, farm business performance and topical agricultural issues to enable farmers to make informed decisions. About Rural Bank Rural Bank has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited since 1. It is the only Australian-owned and operated dedicated agribusiness bank in the country, providing exceptional financial services, knowledge and leadership for Australian farmers to grow. Stone fruit prices started the season higher largely due to early season nectarines and cherries which sold at a premium due to strong demand. Tropical fruit prices are tracking higher than the previous year after early season prices in ober and ember carried into summer. Similarly, table grape prices opened their season higher. Berry prices remain flat from the oversupply of strawberries and blueberries in late 18. Melon and nightshade vegetable prices are following a similar trend to previous years. Melon prices are easing as supply peaks and nightshade vegetable prices are increasing in line with this time last year. The indices presented in this report track the price of summer horticulture categories by aggregating wholesale prices of key fruit and vegetables according to prominent varieties, location of production and the popularity of package size in an unweighted index. This report is intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Rural Bank Limited, ABN AFSL /Australian Credit Licence 2342, a division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited ABN AFSL / Australian Credit Licence , make no representation as to or accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of information contained in this report. Any opinions, estimates and projections in this report do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Rural Bank and are subject to change without notice. Rural Bank have no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth therein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this report does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be relied upon without consulting your legal, financial, tax or other appropriate professional. Copyright Rural Bank Ltd ABN and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd ABN

3 Stone fruit The stone fruit price index* started the season higher largely due to early season nectarines and cherries which sold at a premium due to strong demand. The index has since eased as many categories enter peak supply. The stone fruit price index* fell 15.2 points in uary Victorian nectarine prices averaged $3.96/kg in uary which is 2.9 per cent below this time last year. The price is expected to ease further as supply peaks in ruary. Victorian peaches averaged $3.49/kg in uary which is 36.3 per cent above this time last year, indicating strong demand. uary 17 = Early season Tasmanian Lapin cherries were greeted with strong demand in ember and uary, and prices in the early selling period reflected this when compared with 17/18. In uary, prices averaged $18.58/kg which is 38.8 per cent above the same time last year. Domestic cherry prices have increased in recent years as the export market to Asia grows. Victorian Simone cherries also began the season higher, the average price for uary was $11.67/kg which is 19.7 per cent higher than this time last year. Over the next two months cherry prices are expected to ease as supply peaks. 16/17 17/18 18/19 Data: Ausmarket Consultants *index includes: nectarines, peaches, cherries and plums. Tropical fruit The 18/19 tropical fruit price index* is tracking slightly higher than 17/18 after stronger early season fruit prices in ober and ember. The fruit categories that kept the index high between ober and ember were bananas and mangoes. Since ember the index has mirrored 17/18 with most categories experiencing prices at or above the level of prior years except for passionfruit. Queensland bananas averaged $1.74/kg in uary which is 1.4 per cent higher than this time last year. Prices may remain at the current level for ruary, however as seasonal supply increases heading into ch prices are likely to ease. ember 16 = The tropical fruit price index* eased 8.1 points in uary Passionfruit prices moved higher during ober and ember as supply tightened before new season Queensland fruit reached the market. In uary increased supply pushed prices lower by 24.9 per cent to an average of $3.53 per kilo. Kensington Pride mangoes from Queensland recorded a 6.4 per cent rise in uary to $2.51 per kilo. 16/17 17/18 18/19 Queensland pineapple prices averaged $.79/kg in uary, which is 25.6 per cent above this time last year. Prices over summer have been more consistent compared to 17/18, seemingly without high volumes of supply in uary, which could indicate a more gradual price decline in the coming months as supply peaks. *Index includes: bananas, mangoes, pawpaw, passionfruit and pineapples. Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19

4 Berries The berry price index* plateaued following the price drop in ust 18, which was largely due to the oversupply of Queensland strawberries. In the coming months the price of raspberries and blueberries will shape the index as supply peaks. Blueberries will be in tighter supply and prices are likely to move higher, while raspberry supply will peak. Historically the index moves higher until when Queensland strawberries come into season. New South Wales blueberries are currently priced at $11.4/kg, which is 11 per cent below this time last year. Supply usually tightens in the coming months and average price climbs higher. Victorian strawberry prices are currently slightly higher than this time last year at an average of $5/kg in uary, which is a high supply month. Strawberry prices are expected to climb higher in the coming months as supply tightens. The average price of Queensland strawberries was 21.7 per cent lower in 18 compared to 17, which is likely the result of increased supply and reputational damage from the needles incident of 18. The season will start again in il/. Victorian raspberries started the season earlier than the previous year and the average price has been trending lower with current prices 13.9 per cent below this time last year at $24.32/kg. Tasmanian raspberries have been late due to a cold spring. The average price for uary was $22.16/kg which is 1.8 per cent above this time last year. uary 17 = The berry price index* increased 2.2 points in uary 16/17 17/18 18/19 *Index includes: strawberries, raspberries, blueberries and blackberries. Melons Melon prices in 18/19 are following a similar trend to 17/18, peaking around ember as rockmelon availability tightens. The supply of rockmelon and watermelon increased in uary which pushed melon prices lower, in line with previous years. 1 The melon price index* decreased 67.2 points in uary Honeydew melon prices tracked marginally higher in 18. The average price for uary was $1.91/kg for Queensland produced melons, similar to this time last year. Rockmelon prices peaked significantly between ember and ember indicating strong demand for early season supply. The average price in uary was $1.7/kg which is 35.4 per cent higher than the same time last year. ober 17 = Queensland watermelons selling into the Sydney market averaged $.64/kg during uary, which is 48.8 per cent higher than this time last year. As more supply becomes available prices are likely to come under pressure during ruary and ch. 16/17 17/18 18/19 *index includes: watermelon, rockmelon and honeydew melon. Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19

5 Table grapes The table grape index* is marginally higher than this time last year, largely due to early season grapes from New South Wales and Victoria coming to market a month later than last season. The market will be tested as fresh supply comes on line in the coming months, and prices historically come under pressure in ruary and ch. New South Wales seedless Menindee white grapes averaged $3.15/kg in uary which is 9.4 per cent above this time last year. Victorian seedless Menindee grapes didn t open the season as high, averaging $2.94/kg in uary which is.94 per cent below this time last year. Victorian seedless flame red grapes opened the season higher, averaging $3.47/kg in uary which is 27.9 per cent higher than this time last year, indicating strong demand for early season grapes. ruary 18 = The table grapes index* was 12.7 points higher in uary 19 compared to last year Pome fruit The pome fruit index* is showing signs of a rising trend similar to the 16/17 season. Higher prices across most early season apple varieties are pushing the index up. Early season South Australian granny smith apples averaged $3.15/kg in uary which is 18.4 per cent higher than this time last year. New South Wales royal gala apple prices were also higher in uary averaging $2.53/kg which is 2.8 per cent higher than this time last year. Out of season Victorian Packham pears averaged $2.14/kg in uary, which is 46 per cent higher than this time last year, largely due to lower volume. 1 The pome fruit index* rose 3.8 points in uary 16/17 17/18 18/19 *index includes: white and red table grapes. 17 = 16/17 17/18 18/19 *index includes: apples and pears. Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19

6 Leafy vegetables The leafy vegetable index* has shown less volatility in 18/19 compared to previous years. The index has gradually trended higher since y. The positive trend is largely due to price growth for Chinese wombok cabbages, Brussel sprouts and savoy cabbages. Lettuce prices held firm and moved in a tight range for most of 18. Victorian head lettuce prices averaged $1.23/kg which is 3.9 per cent higher than this time last year. Supply has adequately met demand so far this season. In the coming months prices traditionally trend higher as warm weather tightens supply. New South Wales wombok cabbages showed price growth from ober to ember, which is likely a result of increased demand for early season supply. In uary prices eased on the back of increased supply, averaging $1./kg which is.2 per cent lower than this time last year. The volatility in price is characteristic of this time of year as supply begins to increase. South Australian brussel sprout prices have trended higher since tember with product being sold in every month of the year, unlike previous years where production stopped in ember and ember. In uary prices averaged $7.5/kg which is 1.5 per cent higher than this time last year. 18 = 1 1 The leafy vegetable index* rose 4.3 points in uary 16/17 17/18 18/19 *Index includes: head lettuce, loose lettuce, Asian greens and brussel sprouts. Nightshade vegetables The nightshade vegetables price index* for 18/19 has followed a similar trend to 17/18. The positive movement in uary was largely driven by rising chilli prices due to lower supply compared to 17/ The nightshade vegetable index* rose 6.7 points in uary New South Wales birds eye chillies averaged $9.41/kg in uary which is 72.7 per cent higher than this time last year. 17/18 summer supply was higher which kept prices under pressure. It is a similar story for sweet chillies, the average price for uary 19 was $3.67/kg which is 38.4 per cent higher than this time last year. The supply of red and green Queensland capsicums has increased which led to lower average prices over the past three months. Red capsicums averaged $2.83/kg in uary which is per cent below this time last year. Green capsicums averaged $1.59/kg in uary which is 34.8 per cent below this time last year. Both varieties could experience lower prices in the coming months as supply peaks. Gold capsicum prices have been much more stable averaging $4.3/kg in uary which is 5.1 per cent higher than this time last year. uary 18 = 16/17 17/18 18/19 Queensland cherry tomatoes are in plentiful supply this summer and as a result prices have come under pressure. In uary the average price was $4.16/kg which is 25.7 per cent below this time last year. Field tomato prices are holding at $1.81/kg, 6.2 per cent below this time last year. *index includes: capsicums, chillies, tomatoes and eggplant. Australian Horticulture Price Update Summer 19

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