National Drought Management Authority LAMU COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JANUARY 2016

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1 National Drought Management Authority LAMU COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JANUARY 2016 January EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators An average rainfall of 32.67% of the long term average was received in the month of January which was below the normal range. Vegetation condition was normal during the month of January but the condition deteriorated slightly from that of December due to low rainfall amounts in the month of January. Pasture condition was poor in some parts of the county especially in Fisheries, Pastoral and Mixed farming livelihood zone. However, browse condition remained good in most livelihood zones. The state of water sources for the month of January was normal. Average House hold water distance increased slightly from 1.35 Km in December to 1.97 Km in January. Socio Economic Indicators The body condition for both cattle and goats were normal but the condition deteriorated slightly. There were no cases of livestock migration. There were attacks on a police vehicle in Milimani and also another separate attack in Witho, Poromoko area (Witu). The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased in the month under review but remained lower than the long term mean. The coping strategy index decreased in the month under review. LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Pastoral Normal Stable Mixed Cash Normal Stable Fisheries Normal Stable Mixed Food Normal Stable County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % average rainfall of the longterm VCI-3month Water Distance 1.97 < 2.73Km Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions Normal Normal Livestock Death from No Death No Death Drought Milk Production 0.72Lt/HH Above 0.72L/HH Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption 0.56Lt/HH Above 0.71Lt/HH Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC 3.57% Below 4.17% Coping Strategy Index (CSI) Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food stocks Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High calving rates Milk yield increase ( current ) Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH food stocks Kidding(Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2 1.0 CLIMATE CONDITION 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Actual Rainfall The county received an average amount of 4.63 mm for the month of January. Witu received 18.5mm while other areas had no rainfall in January. This was however normal since onset of the long rains is usually received in the 2 nd or 3 rd week of March. Rainfall station data: SOURCE: Agro meteorological stations in Lamu County 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The vegetation cover for January was good and it was above the normal range. This was shown by the VCI of 62.4 against the normal range of The normal VCI was due to the good browse condition. However, the pasture condition remained poor. VCI Classification Table January 2016 VCI Table Colour VCI Classification Drought Category VCI MATRIX 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 to 50 Normal vegetation greenness 21 to 34 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 to 20 Severe vegetation deficit <10 Extreme vegetation deficit LAMU COUNTY 62.4 LAMU EAST LAMU WEST

3 Percent VCI Chart 2.2 Pasture and Browse Conditions Pasture The quantity and quality of pasture for the month of January was normal and the condition deteriorated from that of the previous month due to a drop in rainfall amount Browse The quantity and quality of browse remained good for the month of January but the condition also deteriorated due to a reduction in rainfall amount. 2.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT Water Sources and Availability State of water sources in the County were normal in the month of January and the condition slightly deteriorated. The situation worsened in the Fisheries livelihood zone of Kiunga with most of the residents depending on water trucking from Mangai which is a distance of 50Km apart. The main sources in the month of January were: Shallow wells 50% followed by boreholes while Djabia & Water trucking, Lakes, Natural Rivers and Natural ponds accounted for 8.3% each. Percentage of HH Water Sources Month of Jan vs Dec S.WELLS B.HOLES N.River DJABIA&WATER TRUCKING % December % Current LAKES N.POND 3

4 Amount in liters 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production Livestock Migration Patterns There were no cases of livestock migration to the neighboring Counties Livestock Body Condition The cattle body condition has continued to improve due to better quality and quantity of pasture. Cattle body condition was fair and it was classified as moderate. This classification for cattle was across all livelihood zones and more evident in the Livestock farming zones. Goats body condition was good and it was classified as moderate. This classification was across all livelihood zones. Good body condition for goats was attributed to fair browse quality and quantity Livestock Diseases There were minimal cases of livestock diseases especially in cattle reported in the month of January in the Pastoral livelihood zone of Chalaluma and in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone of Moa. Cases of livestock diseases reported reduced from those reported in December and November Milk Production Milk production decreased from 0.78l/HH in December to 0.72l/HH in January. This was the same as the long-term average of 0.72 litres per household for January. This decrease was attributed to a deterioration in browse and pasture quantity. Milk production was distributed per livelihood Zone as follows: Fisheries 0.37 litres/hh, Livestock Farmers 2.52 liters/hh, Mixed Cash/Food 0.48 litres/hh and for Mixed Food/Cash livelihood zone, it was 0.32litres/HH. Graph of milk production is shown in the figure below Milk production in liters per month year 2016 Vs Long Term Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Refrence

5 Terms Of Trade 3.2 Rain fed crop production Stage and condition of food crop The crops grown are Maize, Simsim, Cowpeas, Green grams, millet, and Sorghum in the County. Land preparation is currently going on in anticipation of the long rains Crop harvest Mainly Maize is currently being harvested in areas of Mpeketoni, Witu, Hindi and Moa. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 Livestock Terms of Trade The average Term of Trade (ToT) for the month of January was 0.29 which was unchanged from that of December. This was within the normal range of ( ) indicating that with sale of a shoat, the purchase of an equivalent weight of cereals was within an acceptable range. The ToT ratio was distributed per livelihood Zone as follows: Mixed Farming Cash/Food Crops 0.24 and 0.33 in Mixed Farming Food/Cash Crops Livelihood Zone. Lamu County Term of Trade 2016 Vs Long term Average Lamu County Terms of Trade 2016 Vs Long Term Average Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Average LIVESTOCK MARKETING Cattle Prices Average cattle price increased from Kshs. 12,550 in December to Kshs 13,578 in January. This increase in price could be attributed to a decrease in cattle 5

6 Goat Prices in Ksh Cattle Prices in Ksh diseases, few buyers in the pastoralist livelihood zones of Didewaride and Witu areas which previously had affected traders activities. The average cattle price for the month of January was higher than the long-term average price of Kshs 13,064. The distribution of prices across the Livelihood Zone were : Kshs 14,056 in Livestock Farmers and Kshs 13,100 in Mixed Food/Cash livelihood. Lamu County Cattle prices 2016 Vs Long term Average , , , , , , , , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D Average 13, , , , , , , , , , , , ,578.0 Lamu County Cattle Prices 2016 Vs Long Term Average Small Ruminants Price Goat Price Goat prices decreased from Kshs 3,432 in December to an average of Kshs 3,208 in January. The decrease in price could be attributed to reduced body weight due to reduction in browse condition from that of the previous month which led to a drop in price. Fishing and Mangrove Livelihood Zone recorded a price of Kshs 4,850, Mixed Cash/Food recorded a price of Kshs. 3,700, Mixed Food/Cash Kshs. 2,833 and Pastoral livelihood Zone Kshs 1,450.The long-term average goat price for the month of January was Kshs. 2,869 which was lower than the current average price for the month of January. Lamu County Goat prices 2016 Vs. Long term Average Lamu County Goat Prices 2016 Vs Long Term Average , , , , , , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec , Average 2, , , , , , , , , , , ,

7 Maize Prices in Ksh 4.2 CROP PRICES Maize Average price of a 90 kg bag of maize in January was Kshs. 2,709 an increase from Kshs. 2,588 in December. The increase in price was attributed to diminishing stocks from long rain harvest by farmers leading to higher demand of maize hence high prices. Short rain harvest is expected in February and the maize price may drop slightly. Mixed Farming Cash/Food livelihood zone recorded a price of Kshs. 2,565 while Mixed Farming Food /Cash recorded a price of Kshs 2,853. There were no sales recorded in the Fisheries and Livestock Farming Zones. The average price for January was lower than the long term-average price of Ksh 3,028. Maize prices 2016 Vs. Long term Average Lamu County Maize Prices 2016 Vs Long Term Average , , , , , , , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 3,063. 2,942. 2,704. 2,870. 3,243. 3,525. 3,489. 3,111. 2,499. 2,336. 2,402. 2, , Beans Average price of a 90 kg bag of beans increased from Kshs 8,057 in December to Kshs. 8,100 in January. This increase could be attributed to the decreased supply of beans from outside the county due to poor infrastructure worsened by the short rains and the prevailing insecurity situation which hampers movement of traders. The price was Kshs. 9,000 in Livestock Farmers, Kshs. 7,200 in Mixed Cash/Food Livelihood Zone and Kshs. 8,100 in Mixed Food /Cash Livelihood Zone. No beans sales were recorded in Fisheries Livelihood Zone. The long-term average price of beans was Kshs. 7,536 which was lower than the current average price for the month of January. 7

8 Bean Prices in Ksh Lamu County Beans 2016 vs. Long Term Average Lamu County Beans Prices 2016 Vs Long Term Average , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , Access to Income, Food and Water Household Income sources The main household income sources percentages for the month of January were casual labour at 37.57% followed by petty trade at 29.59%, third was formal employment at 8.88% while the rest of the household income sources were: - sale of crops, sales from livestock, remittances and sale of wood products accounting for 8.58%, 6.80%, 5.92% and 2.66% respectively. Chart of Household Income Distribution percentages REMITTANCES SALE OF WOOD 5.92% PRODUCTS 2.66% SALE OF LIVESTOCK 6.80% HH Income for Jan 2016 CASUAL LABOUR SALE OF CROPS 8.58% FORMAL EMPLOYMENT SALARY 8.88% PETTY TRADING 29.59% CASUAL LABOUR 37.57% PETTY TRADING FORMAL EMPLOYMENT SALARY SALE OF CROPS SALE OF LIVESTOCK SALE OF WOOD PRODUCTS REMITTANCES Availability of Milk for Household Consumption An average of 0.56 liters of milk per household was consumed in the month of January. This was a drop from 0.63litres of milk consumed per household in the month of December. The average consumption per household was distributed as follows: Livestock farmers 1.92 l/hh, Mixed Cash/Food 0.48l/HH, Mixed Food/Cash 0.25l/HH and Fisheries and Mangrove Harvesting 0.23 l/hh. 8

9 Water Distance Per month Amount in liters Milk Average Household Milk Consumption 2016 vs. Long Term Average Milk Consumption in liters per month year 2016 Vs Long Term Average Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Year Refrence n= Availability of water for household consumption Household access and Utilization Household watering distances increased from 1Km in December to 1.97Km in January. This increase in distance is attributed to lack of rainfall in the month of January in most parts of the county. This led to limited supply resulting to an increase in distance. However, Water trucking and re-filling of storage tanks reduced the household water distance of some areas especially in Bargoni hence reducing the average household water distance. Fisheries/Mangrove Harvesting Livelihood Zone had the highest distance of 3Km, followed by Mixed Cash/Food Livelihood Zone at 2Km, Mixed Food/Cash livelihood zone had 1.8 Km while Pastoral Livelihood Zone had the least household watering distance of 1.1 km. The average household water distances for January was 2.37 Km this was higher than the current average household watering distance for January. This shows that the current average household water distance for January was normal. Lamu County Average House Hold Water Distance Distribution, for 2016 in Kilometers vs Long Term Average Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2016 Year Refrence n=360 Distance in Km 9

10 Distance to grazing per month Livestock access Average grazing distance was 2.73 km in the month of January, an increase from last month s distance of 1.77 km. This could be attributed to decreased pasture and browse due to lack of rainfall in the month of January. Mixed Food/Cash Livelihood Zone had the highest distance of 3.4 Km, followed by Fisheries/Mangrove Harvesting at 3Km, Livestock Farming Livelihood Zone which had 2.5Km while Mixed Cash/Food Livelihood Zone had the lowest distance of 2 Km. The current average grazing distance for January was lower than the year long-term average of 2.89 Km. Lamu County Grazing Distance Distribution for Year 2016 in Vs Long Term Average Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2016 Year Refrence n=360 Grazing Distance in Km 5.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS 5.1 Health and Nutrition Status MUAC The percentage of children aged between 6months and 5yrs in the County with mid upper arm circumference of less than 135 mm increase from 3.2% in December to 3.57% in January. This increase in MUAC percentage for children could be attributed to decrease in milk production which could have affected milk availability at household level for children hence affecting their MUAC. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded 7% an increase from 6.1% reported the previous month. Mixed Farming Food/Cash Livelihood Zone had 3.1% an increase from 2.8% recorded the previous month, Fisheries livelihood Zone recorded 0.6% a decrease from 0.7% recorded the previous month, while no cases of MUAC less than 135mm for children between 6-59 months were recorded in Mixed Cash/Food Livelihood Zone for the month of January. This figure of 3.57% for January was lower than the year long term average of 4.17%. 10

11 INDEX % MUAC Graph of MUAC<135 mm % Year 2016 vs Long Term Average MUAC<135mm %: 2016 Vs Long Term Average n= Jan Feb March April May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MUAC<135 Av MUAC<135 Year Health There were no cases of major disease outbreak both for children and adults in the County. 5.2 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy Index was 1.50 for the month of January, a decrease from 1.55 recorded the previous month. This was lower than long-term average of Fisheries had 2.8, Pastoralists Livelihood Zone had 0.9, and Mixed Cash/Food Livelihood Zone had 1.3 while Mixed Food/Cash Livelihood zone had a copying strategy index of 1.0. Common coping strategies employed by food insecure households in the month of January were, Reduction in the number of meals. Reduction in the size of meals. Consume wild fruits. Swapped to cheaper food. Purchase on credit. Borrow from friends or relatives. Coping strategies Index year 2016 vs. Long Term Average n= Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Refrence Coping strategies index year 2016 Vs Long Term Average

12 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES (ACTION) 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS Short term Interventions i. A total of 379 households out of the targeted 405 HH benefitted from relief food (Rice-450 bags of 50kg, Vegetable oil -50 cartons, and beans-90 bags of 50kg in the following areas; Milimani-58 HH Basuba-60HH Kiangwe-99HH Mangai-90 HH Mararani-72HH iii). Improving alternative livelihood for the community. Bee keeping by (ICRAF, SIF, WWF) in Witu and Basuba. Dairy improvement in Mpeketoni, Witu and Hindi. Kuchi Improvement in Lamu East. Fodder production in Witu. Emerging livestock promotion (Guinea fowls, quails) County wide Long term Interventions i. Livestock market establishment: Nagele in Witu, Hindi Market, Mpeketoni market, revitalization of Bargoni holding grounds. ii. Improvement of linkages between indigenous chicken values chains Actors County wide. iii. Indigenous chicken vaccination Campaign County wide. 7. EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity Security has continued to improve in the County, however, there was an attack on a police vehicle in Milimani where 5 policemen died and 4 of them were seriously injured. There was also another separate attack in Witho, Poromoko area (Witu) and 4 people were killed and another 3 were seriously injured. 7.2 Migration There were no abnormal cases of human migration during the month under review. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Most of the crops have been harvested in Witu, Mpeketoni and Hindi. Some crops are almost ready and harvesting is expected in February especially in 12

13 mixed and marginal mixed farming zone of Mpeketoni, Hindi and Moa and in some parts of Witu areas. 8. RECOMMENDATIONS Purchase and distribution of Traditional high value crops to farmers. Trainings on high value crops agronomy to farmers. Construction of communal Grain Storage Store at strategic points in the County. Extensive rain water harvest especially during long rains seasons. Extensive hydrological survey to be conducted across the county to establish the quantity of underground water resource. Expand Tsetse control programmers in the county. County to provide adequate number of tractors to farmers (6 more to be bought) coupled with awareness creation on timing of the period of acquiring the equipment. Sensitization on the use of aqua tabs at communal water points. Establishment of 20 community health units and spraying of hotels against houseflies. Promote use of ICT on information sharing. Construction of an additional water pan which can be used for irrigation in Kiunga to avert conflict between crop and livestock farmers. 13