National Drought Management Authority WEST POKOT COUNTY

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1 National Drought Management Authority WEST POKOT COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR AUGUST 2015 AUGUST EW PHASE EARLY WARNING FLAG Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS ZONE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL Worsening PASTORAL ALL EARLY Worsening SPECIES ALERT MIXED FARMING NORMAL Stable COUNTY NORMAL Worsening Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators During the month, the county experienced none to completely depressed rainfall especially in the lowlands with a temporal distribution of only 5days on average in 30 days measured. For instance, the rainfall recorded at Nasukuta rainfall station was only 18% of what is normally received during the month of August. This led to further destruction of the maize crop. The condition of overhead vegetation remained fairly good as evidenced by the VCI-3month of However that of Pokot north and central deteriorated further. The water level in the existing surface water sources dwindled to lower levels with some going dry and was projected to last for approximately 1month. Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) All the access indicators except the terms of trade remained outside the normal range. Browse condition was fair unlike pasture that was poor and depleted in several sites mainly in the pastoral zone. The body condition of cattle was poor in the pastoral zone and fair in the other zones as the trekking distance to water source became longer. MUAC fell outside the normal ranges for the period indicating an increase in malnutrition levels. The CSI increased but remained within the normal range. Current Drought Risk Low Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % of average rainfall (Mar-August)-Nasukuta VCI-3month(County) State of Water Sources Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Normal Normal Pattern Livestock Body Condition Milk Production 35.1 >52.3 Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 62 >55 Milk Consumption 25.9 >42 Water for Households Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC <8.32 Coping Strategy Index 2.14 <2.34 Medium Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 1 Most of the indicators continue being outside the normal range. If the county does not experience an early onset of the short rains, the drought risk shall remain medium especially in the pastoral zone for the next 1 month. High

2 Rainfall in mm 1.0. ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS (STABILITY) 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT Actual Rainfall The rainfall received in August was poorly distributed both in space and time. Temporally, most stations especially in the lowlands such as Sigor and Tamkal recorded only 5 wet days in selected pocket zones. During the month, hot weather conditions prevailed across most parts of Pokot north and central including Kodich, Kangoletiang,Kiwawa,Orwa,Marich and Sigor and that led to near complete destruction of the maize crop that had survived the dry spell of July. The highlands (covering Lelan, Tapach and Kaibos) however, continued receiving sufficient rains and thus the environmental conditions remained favourable in these places. Nasukuta Meteorological Station Monthly Rainfall Average( ) 0.00 Monthly Rainfall (Mar Aug 2015) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Source: Courtesy of Kenya Meteorological Department-west pokot/nlic. During the month, the lowland areas received rainfall that was greatly lower than the long term average for the month as evidenced by rainfall data from Nasukuta meteorological station located in the lowlands of Pserum. In addition to, the massive differentiation margin of 132.4mm that was recorded, the temporal distribution was equally poor with only 5 rainy days for 31 days measured in August as compared to 8 rainy days for 31 days measured in July. The cumulative rainfall for the six month period (Mar 2015 to August 2015) amounts to 627.4mm against the long term rainfall average for the period amounting to 777.2mm and this translates to 81% of the average rainfall for the period(or an absolute deficit of 149.8mm). Therefore, neither the current cumulative rainfall for the six month period nor the one month period (August 2015) compare relatively better to the respective long term average since both lie outside the normal range. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 2

3 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT Condition of Natural Vegetation & Pasture (Quantity/Quality). Pasture situation in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones remains poor and below the normal levels with that in the mixed farming zone being fair to good in quantity and quality. The long dry spell period commencing in July across to August led to further depletion of pasture across several sites that had scanty quantities before in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones resulting in livestock movement in search of pasture. The browse condition was generally fair across most sites in the pastoral and agro pastoral zone but fair to poor in the mixed farming zone that has occasioned in the recent months loss of palatable species through agricultural activities. However, few zones in the agro pastoral zone such as Kodich, Kiwawa and Kangoletiang had browse of poor quality. The condition of vegetation deteriorated slightly during the month as evidenced by the VCI- 3month shift downwards from the 66.3 recorded in July However, the vegetation condition generally remained fair to good across the County as evidenced by the vegetation condition index (VCI-3month) for the month of August that was recorded to be for the whole county. That VCI indicated relatively good vegetation conditions (VCI-3month>50) majorly attributed to the spill over effect of the cumulative April, May and June rains. Therefore, the county exhibited relatively good conditions in terms of overhead vegetation but with depleted ground vegetation in August as illustrated by the VCI matrix below. Pokot north(kacheliba) and central(sigor) recorded a further deterioration in the vegetation condition albeit by a slightly small margin that did not take them out of the normal conditions Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 3

4 range as evidenced by the VCI-3month decrease from to and to respectively. Graph showing VCI trends for Pokot north Sub County Pokot south recorded an improvement in the condition of vegetation with a VCI-3month of 85.2 from recorded in July whereas west pokot sub county had a drop in VCI-3month from recorded in July to in August Distance to Grazing Areas The average distance to the main source of water from the grazing areas increased to 4.15 km in August from 3.75 km recorded in July. This was favourable in comparison to the long term average distance by a margin of 0.42 km on the lower. Ptokou and Nyangaita continued recording the longest distance from grazing areas to water sources at 8.3 km and 8.8 km respectively. The deterioration in the rangeland conditions as a result of the dry spell led to animals covering long distances into dry season grazing areas along the border far away from the main water sources. The areas that were most affected included Kacheliba, Konyao, Kases, Kiwawa, Konyao, Ptokou, Nyangaita and Marich mainly in the pastoral livelihood zone. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 4

5 Average Grazing Distance Dec 4.95 Nov 5.02 Oct 5.04 Sep 4.76 Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Average Distance (Km) 2015 Average Distance (Km)-( ) Distance travelled to grazing areas from the main source of water. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT Water Sources and Availability Natural rivers, traditional river wells and boreholes were the major sources of water (contributing by 73% collectively) for most households during the month of August. The three major rivers including Muruny, Suam and Weiwei flowed naturally although with reduced volumes in comparison to those witnessed in July and thus formed the major source of water for households mainly in the pastoral and agro pastoral zone. Pans and Dams 9% Others 9% Shallow Wells 7% Water Sources Springs 2% B/Holes 23% Traditional River Wells 18% Natural Rivers 32% Common water sources Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 5

6 The number of households using traditional river wells as their main source of water during the month went up by 6% in comparison to July and that was mainly due to the fact that a number of seasonal rivers transecting through the pastoral and agro pastoral zone had dried up. Use of water pans remained relatively stable at 9% as an alternate source of water mainly for livestock Household Access to Water The trekking distance to water sources from households increased to 2.75 km from the 2.33 km recorded in July. This was due to the drying up of seasonal rivers that were in close proximity to households. Notably, this distance surpassed the long term average distance by 0.21 km. The distance was highest in Nyangaita, Orwa and Konyao at 5.5 km, 4.1 km and 3.9 km respectively. Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Household access to water Average Distance (km) 2015 LTA Distance (km) PRODUCTION INDICATORS (FOOD AVAILABILITY) 2.1 Livestock Production Livestock Body Condition The main livestock species reared by the pastoralists is Camels, shoats and cattle. Camels are mainly reared in Pokot North in areas such as Kangoletiang, Alale, Kiwawa and Konyao and some parts of the Agro pastoral zone such as Sigor and Lomut in Pokot Central Sub County. The body condition of cattle was fair in the mixed farming zone but poor in the agro pastoral and pastoral zones. For shoats, it was fair to poor mainly in the pastoral livelihood zone whereas Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 6

7 camels in the pastoral zone exhibited a fair body condition. The deterioration in the animal body condition especially cattle was due to depletion of pasture in most sites especially in Pokot north and central that meant animals trekking long distances in search of pasture. Unlike the previous month, the body condition of goats also deteriorated significantly and that was mainly due to constraints in accessing browse of good quality. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3 Alert Worsening/Alarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th & 13th ribs visible 4 Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 5 Normal/Alert Good smooth appearance 6 Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head 7 Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 8 9 Livestock body condition Scoring Chart Livestock Diseases Few cases of contagious caprine pleuro pneumonia (CCPP) were reported in Konyao and Lumpy skin disease in Kangoletiang mainly affecting goats. Cases of East Coast Fever (ECF) continue being reported in the entire Lelan division Milk Production Milk production was on a downward trend for the second successive month with a paltry average of 35.1 litres per site being recorded for the sampled 329 households countywide. For instance, Kapsait in Lelan division recorded a massive drop from 152 litres in July to 126 litres in August. The same case applied for Chepnyal and Konyao thus portraying a uniform picture across all the livelihood zones. The decrease in production could be attributed to the fact that there was a constraint in access to pasture in terms of the distance covered and partly due to migration to a smaller extent that meant few animals from the milking herd remaining behind within the households. The milk levels continue lying low in relation to the long term average for the month with an absolute deficit of 17.3 litres per site. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 7

8 Milk Production Trends Source: NDMA monthly sentinel surveillance data 2.2 Crop Production Timeliness and status of crop production Maize crop had fully matured in readiness for harvesting mainly in the upper parts of central pokot such as chesegon and upper parts of Sigor. In other areas such as the better part of Pokot south sub county covering Lelan and Tapach; it was still at grain filling stage. However, the crop had dried at the critical stage of grain filling in a number of sites such as Kacheliba, Konyao, Kiwawa, Kasei, Kases, Ptokou, Masol, Chesta and lower parts of Lomut.This prompted farmers to uproot the crop and feed the animals especially with the scarcity of pasture that was noted during the month under review Pests and diseases No major crop pests and diseases (except few cases of lethal maize necrosis in pokot south and west) had been reported in the entire county during the month under review Harvest Most farmers had harvested beans from the farms and thus beans were readily available in the market at a reduced price in comparison to July. Few farmers especially in the agro pastoral zone did harvest maize.however; most of it had been destroyed in the farms as a result of the dry spell in July across August that affected mainly the pastoral and agro pastoral zone. It is projected that the maize crop mainly in the mixed farming zone will be harvested in September. Amounts (litres) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA( Average Average Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 8

9 Price in Kshs 3.0 ACCESS TO FOOD 3.1 Livestock Marketing Cattle prices During the month under review, the trading price of cattle at household level experienced a huge shock dropping to Kshs 13,627 from the Kshs 15,424 recorded in July. However this price remained within the normal range being slightly higher than the long term average price for August by a margin of Kshs 589. Constraints in terms of accessing pasture mainly in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones meant this species trekking longer distances in search for pasture leading to a deterioration in body condition thus attracting poor prices at the market. Source: NDMA surveillance data-cattle Selling Price Trends at Farm Gate Level. Cattle trading price during the month was highest in the mixed farming zone at Kshs 14, 000, in the pastoral zone it traded at Kshs 13,293 with the agro pastoral zone closing at Kshs 12, Goat Prices There was a further slight downward shift in goat price from Kshs 2,476 in July to Kshs 2,424 in August. This was majorly due to the deterioration in body condition especially for those in the pastoral zone that recorded a significant drop in trading price by a margin of Kshs 860. There was no significant variation in the trading price of goat across the livelihood zones with a goat retailing at Kshs 2,300 in the agro pastoral zone and Kshs 2,290 in the pastoral zone. The average goat price for the month under review was above the long term average price by Kshs Household Average Cattle Price Vs LTA ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA price( )) Aveprice(2014) Ave price(2015) Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 9

10 Price in KShs/Kg Price in Ksh Household Average Goat Price Vs LTA( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA Price( ) Ave Price (2014) Ave Price (2015) Source: NDMA surveillance data-goat Selling Price Trends at Farm Gate Level Crop Prices Maize (Markets) Maize price shot up by a unit shilling to Kshs 39 per kg in August from Kshs 38 in July. Compared to the long term average price of Kshs 41 per kg at the same time of the year, the maize price for August was slightly lower by two shillings. Average Maize Price vs LTA Price( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA Price( ) Ave Price (2014) Ave Price (2015) Average maize market price The increase in price could be attributed to scarcity of the commodity within the internal normal supply sources to the markets and that meant much reliance on external (outside the county) Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 10

11 Price in KShs/Kg markets to replenish the stocks in the major markets within the county Beans Beans price dropped to Kshs 68 in August from Kshs 86 per kg recorded in July. This could be attributed to availability of the beans in the markets with the major sources to those markets being the normal internal ones. This price was lower than the long term average price by four shillings. Average Beans Price vs LTA Price ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA Price ( ) Ave Price (2014) Ave Price (2015) Average beans selling price at market. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price at Kshs Livestock Terms of Trade (ToT) The continued increase in maize price per kg from Kshs 38 in July to Kshs 39 in August coupled with the reduced trading price of goat as a result of a deteriorated body condition led to a drop in the terms of trade (ToT) from 65 (in July) to 62 during the month under review. This translated to pastoralists acquiring less kilograms of maize as compared to what they could purchase from the sale of the same goat in July. The ToT remain well within the normal range for the period. However, they are projected to be on a downward trend given that the maize price is likely to further increase due to the scarcity currently being witnessed informed by the poor harvest resulting from destruction of the crop in the farms especially in the pastoral and agro pastoral zone. The current situation is less favourable to the pastoralists as they continue to get poor returns in the market from sale of goat and thus will be constrained in accessing sufficient quantities of maize to meet their dietary needs. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 11

12 TOT 110 Current Terms of Trade vs LTA ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA( ) Income Sources of Income Majority of the households continue relying on sale of livestock and casual labour as their main source of income. Sale of Charcoal 5% Sale of crops 5% Formal Employment 8% Sources of Income Sale of Wood Products 5% Sale of Livestock 41% Petty Trading 15% Casual Labour 21% Households employing sale of livestock as their source of income went up by 6% with a continued decrease in those resorting to casual labour (shifting from 23% in July to 21% in August) mainly explained by the fact that no major work was being undertaken in the farms and therefore demand for labour was low. Sale of crops in the form of animal feeds formed a source of income in August. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 12

13 MUAC<135 mm(%) 4.0 UTILIZATION OF FOOD 4.1 Nutrition Status For the month of August, the percentage of children (<5yrs) at risk and malnourished based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC<135mm) was 11.5%. Compared to the previous month, it had increased by 1.3%. For the sampled 873 children under five years measured, this meant that 100 of them were either at risk or malnourished. This being an increase from the 95 recorded in July. Therefore, this was on a worsening trend translating to more children falling into the bracket of at risk and malnourished and could be attributed to a decrease in milk consumption as a result of a dip in milk production during the month under review in comparison to July. This coupled with the shrinking terms of trade meant households were not able to embrace dietary diversity especially for pastoral households due to the reduced purchasing power. Nutritional Status of Children Months, MUAC Expressed as a % of the Sampled Children compared to series Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA( ) Ave (2014) Ave (2015) (Source: NDMA monthly sentinel surveillance data where n=873 children) Compared to the long term mean, the percentage of children at risk and malnourished based on MUAC<135mm for the month of August was higher by 3.14%, way above the normal ranges for the period. Ptokou, Konyao, Nyangaita and Kapsait sample sites rated high in terms of percentage of children at risk and malnourished at 15.9%, 15.9%, 13.7% and 12.9 % respectively. 4.2 Health No major disease outbreak was reported except cases of malaria, typhoid and respiratory tract infection mainly in Alale. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 13

14 CSI Number of Cases (Source: MoH, Disease surveillance department) 4.3 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index (CSI) Disease Incidences in West Pokot County (wk 32-35) 2015 Malaria Malaria_ Test Malaria_ Positive Typhoid Dysentry Measles Malnutrit ion Pokot South Pokot Central Pokot North Pokot West The coping strategy index for the month was 2.14 implying that households employed relatively more coping strategies in comparison to those employed in July. That CSI was however, within the normal ranges for the period and was better in comparison to the one recorded for the same period during the previous year. Current CSI Vs LTA CSI Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA( ) The pastoral zone recorded the highest CSI at 2.4 followed by that in the agro pastoral zone at 2.2 and the mixed farming zone had 1.5. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 14

15 During the month, the commonly applied coping strategies included reduction in the number of meals per day, reduction in size of meals, swapping to cheaper foods and borrowing from relative. 5.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 5.1 Non-Food Routine High Impact Nutrition Interventions (HINI) implementation done in 68 health facilities and 19 integrated outreach sites supported by ACF.Scaling up the facilities implementing full package of HINI ongoing. World breastfeeding week commemorated: Theme: Breastfeeding and Work: Let s make it work. Routine nutrition screening of pregnant and lactating mothers conducted in health facilities and outreach sites with CHEWs and CHVs trained on IMAM and IYCN. 5.2 Food Aid No food distribution was conducted during the month under review. 6.0 EMERGING ISSUES 6.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement 6.2 Migration No major insecurity incidences were reported during the month under review. This was majorly witnessed in Pokot north and central sub counties with approximately 60% of the herd moving towards Turkana (Karai Amolem) and Uganda borders. No significant migration was witnessed in pokot south and west sub counties. The migration was not normal at that time of the year and was expected to continue especially in the pastoral zone that was experiencing depletion of pasture across many sites. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis A poor harvest of the maize crop had been witnessed during the month under review with most of it having dried up in the farms at the critical stage of grain filling. The rangeland conditions continue deteriorating with pasture completely depleted in a number of zones and this had resulted in a sharp decline in livestock productivity in terms of milk production and market trading price. Food prices are projected to continue increasing through September especially with the poor performance of the major livelihood sectors. Consequently, food security will seasonally decrease in the pastoral areas as the purchasing Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 15

16 power is further eroded and thus majority of the households are likely to remain stressed with some falling into crisis if an early onset of the short rains is not witnessed. Proper market functioning with enhanced security along the major supply routes will therefore, play a critical role in moderating the situation from transitioning into crisis for a large proportion of the pastoral zone. 7.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1 Recommendations to CSG/KFSSG Activation of preparedness measure for supporting commercial offtake (early stage) through provision of subsidies.-action: Livestock department. Provide relief supplies to a good proportion of households in the pastoral zone at risk due to crop failure-action, County and National Government. Preposition of essential medical supplies in target facilities.-ministry of Health Carry out strategic water needs assessment. Systematically check on the condition of all boreholes, pumps and gen sets, and maintenance.-action, Water department. Activate conflict mitigation teams. Action- County commissioner s Office. Drought Bulletin August 2015_West Pokot County Page 16