KENYA Food Security Outlook October 2010 through March 2011

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1 Key Messages The impacts of the expected La Niña event, between October and December, will be most visible among the northern and northeastern pastoral areas as well as in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural lowlands. Substantial gains in household food security, following two generally favorable seasons, may begin to erode as households are unlikely to meet a significant portion of their food requirements using the limited production related to the critical short rains period. Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, October 2010 Recovery is likely to progress in the northwestern pastoral areas and in a few parts of the southern rangelands due to expected enhanced rains. However, improvements in food security may be offset by the affects of flooding in localized areas: namely the outbreak of water and vector-borne diseases, destruction of infrastructure, and the inability to access markets. In addition, conflict is likely to heighten due to migration of livestock from neighboring drought-affected areas. Prospects for enhanced rainfall in the western sector of the country, including the grain basket, may disrupt or even delay For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: harvesting of long rains maize. As a result, increased pre- and post-harvest losses may occur, somewhat compromising national output. Nevertheless, beneficial effects of enhanced rains in the western areas could be substantial as long as the rains are not excessive. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline FEWS NET Kenya Tel: /6/9 Nancy Mutunga nmutunga@fews.net WFP/VAM Tel: Allan Kute Allan.kute@wfp.org ALRMP Tel: James Oduor j.oduor@aridland.go.ke Ministry of Agriculture Tel: Abner Ingosi abneringosi@yahoo.com The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Current Food Security Conditions Pastoral Areas Pastoral food security has remained favorable through most of 2010, even during the lean seasons, due to continued availability of grazing resources in most wet-season grazing areas, especially in the northwest. Subsequently, migrations have been lower than normal while livestock body conditions are mostly favorable, in part due to limited livestock disease outbreak. In addition, livestock prices have been above average and cereal prices marginally lower than average in most markets. With the reduction in the availability of water, pasture and browse are declining seasonably with distances remaining up to 20 percent below-normal in many areas, except in parts of Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Tana River, and Ijara, where distances to dry season grazing areas are about 50 percent above-normal. Nevertheless, households in most other parts continue to derive substantial benefits from their livestock due to limited migrations and improved productivities. The general absence of livestock diseases and improved body conditions has translated into above-average prices, which are percent and percent above the five year average prices for goat and cattle, respectively, in markets outside of the northeast. Terms of trade have improved in most of these areas as cereal prices have reduced by margins ranging between five and 40 percent below the five year averages. Declining populations of children that are at risk of malnutrition in pastoral areas, measured using the Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC<135mm) for children under five years old, suggest improving food security. According to the Arid Lands Resource Management Program (ALRMP) surveillance system, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is percent below five year averages in Baringo, Kajiado, Moyale, Narok, Mandera, Turkana, Tana River, Ijara, and Wajir. However, the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition remains generally high and is over 20 percent in Moyale, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, and Wajir due to reduced milk availability at the household level coupled with the migration of the milking livestock after generally poor long rains. Increasing scarcity of water has resulted in water trucking in parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Ijara, Isiolo, Mandera, and Turkana. However, longer livestock trekking and the related decline in body conditions have occurred in areas that cannot access trucked water in parts of Tana River, Wajir, Marsabit, Ijara, and Isiolo. In addition, rising conflict and incidences of insecurity are impeding market access and also causing the loss of livelihood assets and displacement in Isiolo, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, West Pokot, and along the border with Somalia, moderating improvements in household food security in the pastoral livelihoods areas. Southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas Food security has improved significantly for most households in the southeast and coast marginal agricultural zone, after an average performance of the minor long rains season. However, the food security situation could change rapidly given that the 2010 long rains harvest is expected to contribute less than 20 percent of the annual output. In addition, households which lost about 30 percent of short rains maize stocks to aflatoxin contamination and lost a significant proportion of income due to a sharp drop in maize prices, are unlikely to have sufficient stocks to last up to the next harvest in March However, households in areas where long rains harvests were generally favorable, including parts of Meru North, Tharaka, Mbeere, Lamu, and Malindi, are likely to maintain stocks into the next harvest in March. Although cereal prices are rising, they are still percent below-average in Mwingi, Nyeri, Kitui, Meru North, Mbeere, and Lamu, which is beneficial to those farmers that have surplus stocks but detrimental to farmers who have lost their harvest to aflatoxin contamination while harvesting very little in the way of long rains crops. While livestock prices are high, ranging from percent above the five year average, household livestock holdings are limited with farmers only selling their livestock as a last resort, often after both their conditions and value have deteriorated. The improved food security situation in the zone is illustrated by an improved nutrition status. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has declined substantially and is up to 90 percent below-average as measured by the ALRMP s surveillance system, in Makueni, Lamu, Kitui, Mbeere, Mwingi, Taita Taveta and Nyeri districts. Improved nutrition is attributed to improved access to food, following two consecutive harvests in most parts and improved dietary diversity, as households are consuming up to three or four food groups, compared to a maximum of two food groups, in most instances. However, the proportion of children under five years old that are at risk of malnutrition is above average by percent in Kwale and Kilifi districts. Kenya Food Security Technical Working Group 2

3 Most likely food security scenario, October 2010 through March 2011 The following assumptions underpin the most likely food security scenario for the October 2010 through March 2011 period: Below-normal short rains in northern and eastern pastoral and southeastern and coast marginal agricultural zones during the October-December short rains. Enhanced rains in the western and Rift Valley cropping and the northwestern pastoral areas. Increased livestock migrations from the northern and northeastern pastoral areas toward western pastoral areas. Above-normal long rains maize harvest in the Rift Valley and western grain basket from October through January. Increase in food prices motivated by an expected upward price revision by the Government of Kenya (GoK), combined with poor production in critical short rains areas in the southeastern and coastal lowlands. Forecast of a moderate to strong La Niña event suggests a likely crop failure in the southern lowlands and in contrast an aboveaverage short rains harvest in the southern Rift, western, and Nyanza cropping areas. Increased water and vector-borne diseases in the northwest due to enhanced short rains. Delayed long rains harvest and increased pre- and post-harvest losses in some grain basket areas in the Rift Valley. Localized flooding resulting in displacement and destruction of infrastructure and crops in the northwest, Lake Basin, and southern rangelands. Figure 2. Most likely food security scenario, October through December, 2010 Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario, January to March, 2011 Pastoral areas The main shock that is likely to arise as a result of poor short rains in the northern and northeastern pastoral areas is a marked acceleration in the decline of water availability and the related decline in pasture and browse from October onward. The areas that are expected to be most affected include most areas of Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Ijara, Tana River, and parts of Samburu districts. While enhanced rains in the northwest are expected to be largely beneficial, they may lead to localized flooding and landslides in Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana, Keiyo, and Marakwet, particularly in November when the short rains peak. For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Indirect effects of the poor rains shock include longer trekking distances and increased haphazard livestock migrations away from the northeast. Likely unplanned migrations could lead to heightened insecurity and conflict among pastoralists in Marsabit, Wajir, Moyale, Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, and Tana River and those in the northwest from November 2010 through March Lengthy migrations and increased clustering of livestock in the northeast is likely to weaken body conditions increasing the vulnerability of livestock to contagious diseases toward the end of December. Invariably, current above-average livestock prices are likely to decline fairly rapidly, while cereal prices are projected to increase, compromising pastoral terms of trade. Access to livestock and livestock products by households affected by poor short rains in the north and northeast is likely to decline significantly from November 2010 through March 2011, leading to high food insecurity. As a result, most households, particularly the very poor and poor are likely to revert to, and increase the employment of, undesirable coping strategies such as charcoal production, sharing of relief food, reducing the frequency of meals, and reducing dietary diversity as early as December. Kenya Food Security Technical Working Group 3

4 Localized flooding in the northwest and southern rangelands, especially in Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Keiyo, Marakwet, Samburu, Narok, and Kajiado may lead to increased water and vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria and cholera. However, the disease upsurge is expected to be localized and short-lived because the intensity of rains often wanes after November. In addition, markets could become inaccessible due to expected damage to infrastructure. Poor infrastructure in areas where market integration is already problematic due to high transaction costs is likely to further impede market access, causing a temporary reduction in livestock prices and above-average food prices because of limited trader participation in markets. A majority of households in the northwest, outside of Marsabit, Moyale, and parts of Samburu districts are likely to continue building their livestock herds and may be able to access a significant proportion of their food needs through own production, complemented by market purchases of cereals, through the outlook period. Most of the pastoralists situated in the areas where short rains occur are expected to be moderately food insecure. Although livestock productivity will improve significantly, other food security factors including low livestock holdings and the impacts of an extended period of previous poor and failed seasons, point to chronic food insecurity, which is unlikely to be reversed by just a couple of good seasons. Households are likely to continue applying undesirable coping strategies such as keeping children away from school, herding livestock, as well as sharing their relief food rations. Southeastern marginal agricultural areas and coastal lowlands The main shock that is expected to impact livelihoods in marginal agricultural areas of the southeast and coast is poor or failed rains resulting in likely crop failure during the most important season in the lowlands. At least 70 percent of annual output is derived from the short rains season in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural lowlands and crop failure is the most direct effect of this shock. In addition, there is likely to be widespread scarcity of water with a reduction in pasture and browse from early The indirect effects of poor short rains include a likely increase in demand for food commodities due to the rapid depletion of household stocks. Food prices are likely to rise substantially at an unusual time due to constrained stocks in the market. In addition, livestock sales at lowered prices may increase in the market as farmers seek to raise school fees for household members in January. Other indirect effects include longer distances traveled and larger amounts of time will be expended in sourcing water, coupled with heightened water prices, all of which will invariably compromise purchasing capacities. Longer livestock trekking distances from December onward in search of water and grazing resources will likely cause deterioration in livestock productivities, reducing their market value, and the extent to which livestock sales contribute to bridging the food gap. While the better-off households who have a broad income base and livelihood strategies are likely to remain food secure throughout the scenario period, the middle-income, poor, and very poor households may begin employing adverse coping strategies such as increased borrowing, reduction in the size and number of meals, and increased charcoal burning toward the end of The oft-employed coping strategy of labor migration to neighboring farms among the better-off households will be limited by the expected widespread failure of the short rains in the region. Most of the poor and very poor households have suffered a series of poor or failed seasons and the extent to which viable coping strategies are available is unclear. For example, extensive land degradation is visible in these marginal lowlands, suggesting that food insecurity is likely to increase, even if the rains do not fail completely. Food insecurity for the poor and very poor households could deteriorate to highly food insecure toward the end of the first quarter of Other populations that will require continuous monitoring Food insecurity for the majority of the poor and very poor households in urban areas is likely to increase during the outlook period. Poor rains in key catchment areas are expected to lead to water shortages causing increased water prices which will not only erode purchasing power but could also lead to under-utilization of water, creating a conducive environment for the proliferation of water-borne diseases as is often the case during drought periods. In addition, past power shortages and rationing could resume, resulting in the closure or reduced productive capacities of small businesses where most of the poor and very poor urban dwellers derive their wages. The upward pressure on food prices is likely to increase with reduced production in the lowlands and increased National Cereals and Produce Board of Kenya (NCPB) purchase prices. Apart from a likely increase in urban food insecurity, an estimated 80,000 people displaced during the post-election crisis Kenya Food Security Technical Working Group 4

5 have not been resettled and a significant portion reside in areas that are anticipated to receive higher than normal rainfall. A significant population is still living in tents or other suboptimal accommodations. While such households are likely to suffer outbreaks of water and vector-borne diseases, they are without viable income sources that could help mitigate detrimental impacts of above-normal rains. Projected 2010 crop output in key areas Harvesting of the long rains maize crop, which accounts for over 80 percent of national output, has progressed significantly in the central, western, Nyanza highlands, and southeastern lowlands. National long rains production is expected to be about 2.6 million MT, just above the five year average. The GoK has purchased 280,000 MT of maize against the statutory grain reserve requirement of 720,000 MT, with half of that quantity required in physical stock and the rest in cash. It is likely that the requirement will be met because the GoK intends to raise the purchase price of maize from the current Ksh. 1,500 per 90kg bag just as the harvest is set to begin in the grain basket areas. The likely increase in maize purchase prices above prevailing market prices is beneficial to surplus producers in the grain basket. However, this increase is detrimental to a majority of food insecure households since close to 70 percent of the population are net consumers. The market could be further tightened by reduced output in the event that enhanced rains in the key growing areas of the Rift Valley result in significant pre- and post-harvest losses, increasing the upward pressure in maize prices. It is critical at this time to monitor storage facilities, as well as the moisture content of the harvested grain, so as to avoid aflatoxin contamination and likely infection. Table 1. Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios Area Event Impact on food security outcomes Pastoral areas in the northeast Marginal agricultural lowlands in the southeast and coast Pastoral areas in the north and northwest Main maizeproducing areas in the North Rift Short rains are average to aboveaverage. Escalation of insecurity in locations bordering Somalia. Short rains are average or aboveaverage in most parts. Enhanced access to water, improved conditions for pasture and browse, leading to improved livestock productivity. Resultant improved access to livestock and livestock products, for majority of households would enhance food security. Household access to markets would be impeded, leading to increased transaction costs and higher food prices. Both food and non-food assistance to needy communities in the northeast would be compromised. Increased inflow of refugees from Somalia into the country may start putting pressure on local resources and raising tensions. Food security would be established for a majority of households, as this would be the third generally favorable season. Household food stocks would be replenished and food deficits would be much lower than expected. Majority of poor and very poor households would not revert to employing undesirable coping strategies. Short rains are poor or fail. Gains in food security recorded over the past two seasons would begin to erode. Majority of households would increase negative coping strategies, such as increased charcoal burning or eating wild foods. Increased livestock migrations and concentrations would result in environmental degradation, which is detrimental to future resilience of households. High food insecurity would result in many places as the escalation of conflicts over resources may lead to the loss of lives, loss of livelihood assets, displacement, and even destitution. Rains destroy substantial portion of long rains maize harvest. Constriction of national supply, and exceptionally high prices. Planting of the 2011 long rains crop would be affected as household ability to access necessary inputs would be constrained. Kenya Food Security Technical Working Group 5