KENYA Food Security Update May 2007

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1 The 2007 long rains season is now underway after a tentative start in the eastern pastoral areas and in the coastal and southeastern cropping lowlands. The long rains are critical and are the best possible opportunity available to consolidate the beginning of the recovery process for pastoralists and marginal agricultural households that started toward the end of However, for rains to benefit the recovery process, the Government of Kenya (GoK), donors and NGOs need to activate concurrent multi sectoral mitigation and resilience building interventions proposed by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). Until this happens, pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods will not be able to withstand the next shock or hazard in spite of recent substantial improvements in short term food security. Already, renewed flooding around Lake Victoria and the Coast has displaced households and disrupted livelihoods as critical dykes that broke during the October December short rains remain in disrepair. The prognosis in key cropping areas looks promising, and a good long rains harvest is anticipated in these areas beginning in October. The overall national food supply remains favorable and the country is well supplied with grain through the start of the first long rains harvest in July. Figure 1. Current food security status W N S E TURKANA MARSABIT WEST POKOT SAMBURU BARINGO LAIKIPIA MWINGI MOYALE ISIOLO MANDERA WAJIR GARISSA NAROK MACHAKOS TANA RIVER IJARA KITUI KAJIADO MAKUENI MALINDI TAITA TAVETA KILIFI Kilometers KWALE Figure 2. Rainfall anomalies during April Extremely Food Insecure Highly Food Insecure Moderately Food Insecure Generally Food Secure Source: ALRMP/KFSSG Assessment Team Rains increase in April but remain erratic Most parts of the country received substantial amounts of rainfall in April, after a poor start in the eastern pastoral areas as well as in the coastal and southeastern cropping lowlands. In these drought and flood prone areas, rains began in mid April, about two weeks late. The lateness of the rains is of more concern in the cropping areas that require a systematic rainfall regime, including the southeastern and coastal lowlands, where crop production is the key livelihood. While the long rains are the minor season in the southeastern and coastal districts, they nevertheless contribute an estimated 30 percent of the local annual crop output, regenerate vegetation and recharge water sources. Source: USGS/FEWS NET FEWS NET Kenya Tel: /6/9 Nancy Mutunga nmutunga@fews.net WFP/VAM Tel: Allan Kute Allan.kute@wfp.org ALRMP Tel: James Oduor j.oduor@aridland.go.ke Ministry of Agriculture Tel: Edward osanya eosanya@yahoo.com The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 In contrast, the Rift Valley, western and central highlands have received fair rains. The one to two week delay in the onset facilitated short rains harvesting, land preparation and planting for the long rains, after the short rains extended uncharacteristically into February. Unusually heavy rains in the adjacent highland catchments resulted in renewed flooding in the lowland areas around Lake Victoria. The perennially flood prone Budalang i Division is the worst affected, mainly because the dykes that were destroyed during the October December floods were not repaired. An estimated 4,000 persons were displaced as a result of the flooding during the last week of April and more recently, an estimated 2,000 persons along the coastal strip. While rains have been favorable in the key cropping areas situated in the Rift Valley and western highlands, the season is still in its early stages and significant changes could occur. However, continued good rains should ensure another favorable season as long as the intensity is not extreme. The International Research Institute has indicated that forecasting signals are generally neutral at the moment, limiting the ability to provide an unambiguous prognosis of probable rainfall trends. Additional favorable seasons required to consolidate the pastoralists recovery process The start of the 2007 long rains in April was characterized by uneven spatial and temporal distribution and significant delays in most pastoral areas. However, because pastoralists have just come out of a very good short rains season, which extended unusually into January in several areas. Pastoral conditions are satisfactory: pasture and water availability is better than usual is most areas; livestock body conditions are good, and terms of trade favor pastoral livelihoods; milk production and birthing rates are improving; and malnutrition rates are declining. Unfortunately, the impacts of good agroclimatic conditions were compromised by the outbreak of the Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in eastern pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Ijara and Tana River. While the current long rains have been fairly erratic, some areas including Turkana, southern Garissa, western Marsabit, Ijara and central parts of Tana River districts have received heavier than normal rains. The impacts of the delayed season onset and erratic rains are moderated by exceptionally heavy short rains that ensured that pasture, browse and water conditions have remained favorable in several areas in Garissa, Mandera, Ijara, Tana River, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana districts. However, the Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has indicated that in some areas, such as Turkana and parts of Mandera and Wajir districts, pasture has failed to regenerate in spite of good rains during the last two seasons. The absence of pastures is attributed to the severity of extended droughts prior to the last two seasons, coupled with increased land degradation that has lessened the vigor of the grass spores, even after successive good rains. Although quantities of water in surface dams have declined and depleted in some areas, watering distances to boreholes and shallow wells remain far lower than respective seasonal averages. Subsequently, dry season migrations in search of water were not extensive during April, and most pastoralists and livestock remained in wet season grazing areas through the January March dry spell for the first time in several years. The body condition of livestock remained good across the pastoral livelihood during April, attributed principally to a favorable season coupled with the control of the RVF and other livestock diseases, after an aggressive vaccination campaign. The ALRMP has however reported that while incidents of livestock diseases declined markedly, the contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia and Lumpy Skin Disease remain problematic, particularly in Mandera, Turkana, Ijara and Tana River districts. The ALRMP has stated that it is crucial that the vaccination campaign is widened to cover the remaining disease prone areas. The kidding, calving and lambing rates have also increased, leading to improved milk availability at the household level. However, the ALRMP has cautioned that current levels of milk consumption are still significantly lower than levels reported prior to the series of droughts that begun in Additional good seasons are needed to rebuild herds as well as restore livestock productivity that was compromised by the outbreaks of RVF and other diseases. Improvements in milk availability combined with supplementary feeding and some crop harvests along river banks and irrigation schemes in Tana River, Garissa, Turkana, Mandera and Wajir districts, has improved the food basket, reflected in significant reductions in rate of child malnutrition over the past several months. Figure 3 shows the general downward trend since September in malnutrition rates in key pastoral districts. However, poor sanitary conditions and disease outbreaks, especially measles and cholera in a few pastoral districts continue to push up rates of child malnutrition rates even though nutrition factors are Kenya Food Security Network 2

3 positive. An outbreak of cholera in Mandera and Turkana districts claimed four and six lives, respectively, and has spread to other six districts, causing a total of 32 fatalities. As expected, favorable body and health conditions of livestock and, importantly, the lifting of the ban on the sale, slaughter and movement of livestock has strengthened of livestock prices. Livestock prices rose during April across most of the pastoral districts including Garissa, Ijara, Turkana and Tana River, by margins ranging between 8 15 percent. Livestock prices are consistently higher than respective averages by margins ranging between percent, even in markets where current prices are lower than the previous month, as in Mandera and Marsabit. Figure 4 illustrates the trend in the cattle prices in Garissa market for the past 15 months from the debilitating drought in early 2006 through the floods and the Rift Valley outbreak at the end of 2006, to the present time. While recent improvement in prices has translated into favorable terms of trade for pastoralists in most districts, the pastoral livelihood remains fragile. In many pastoral districts, livelihoods are not yet self sufficient, and if current rains fail to properly consolidate, significant production and food security gains could erode easily. Figure 3. Declining trend in rates of child malnutrition in pastoral districts Source of Data: ALRMP Figure 4. Rising trend in livestock prices in Garissa District Even as key pastoral food security fundamentals were improving, severe conflicts in April underlined the diverse nature of risks and hazards with which pastoralists contend. During April, serious conflicts were reported in Turkana, Tana River, West Pokot, north Mwingi and Mandera districts. According to the ALRMP, the worst conflicts were in Turkana and Tana River. In Turkana District, 28 deaths occurred, and 2,000 camels and 960 goats were stolen in the south and west in clashes with the Pokot. Turkana pastoralists also faced clashes with the Toposa of South Sudan and the Nyagatom of Ethiopia. In Tana Source of Data: ALRMP River District, three lives were lost and settlements burned down. Apart from the unfortunate loss of life and livestock, the clashes disrupted livelihoods by displacing pastoralists, impeding access to markets as well as accelerating the depletion of resources and increasing the potential for conflict in safe areas where pastoralists have clustered. The ALRMP has reported that milk production has dropped markedly in the epicenters of the conflict in Lokori, Kainuk and Lomelo in Turkana District. Collection of monitoring data is also being hampered by incidents of conflict. The persistence of conflict will undermine improvements in livelihood and food security as households recover from drought, floods and RVF. The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) identified critical mitigation and emergency interventions, summarized in the April Kenya Food Security Update, that are required in order to strengthen the recovery of the pastoral livelihood. While the ALRMP, sectoral working groups and NGOs are implementing several mitigation and livelihood building projects, their scale is small in proportion to what is required. The sectoral working groups of the KFSSG will need to leverage resources to ensure that proposed interventions are implemented, if meaningful improvements in the pastoral livelihood are to be achieved. Kenya Food Security Network 3

4 The EMOP targets an estimated one million persons, predominately in pastoral areas An official communication from the Office of the President was sent to the district authorities in April, explaining the implications of the short rains assessment results on future food aid requirements. The World Food Programme is preparing to scale down the emergency operation to 1.3 million beneficiaries in 14 districts, down from 2.4 million persons in 25 districts. Over the next six months, general food distributions, including food and cash for assets, will target 919,000 beneficiaries in 14 districts; the expanded school feeding to 271,000 school children in nine districts; and the supplementary feeding program to 120,000 children, and pregnant and lactating women. UNICEF is working closely with Ministry of Health (MoH) and NGOs to expand their implementation capacity for the supplementary feeding program. Re targeting started in five districts in April and is expected to be completed early May. WFP staff have been providing support to the communities who are responsible for targeting, in order to ensure that the process is in compliance with the community based targeting and distribution guidelines so that precise criteria are used to identify the most vulnerable community members. Distributions under the new EMOP phase started during the last week of April. Deliveries to the remaining nine districts under the expanded school feeding program of this EMOP phase have also started, and supplies are expected to reach the schools in the coming weeks. Initial prognosis points to favorable crop production in key growing areas, maize prices stabilize The 2006 long rains cropping season has established in key growing areas of the country, and the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) projects an increase in area put to maize, the nation s most important crop. The MoA anticipates that 1.7 million hectares will be put to maize and higher than normal maize output will be harvested between July and December High maize producer prices over the last two years have encouraged production. Farmers have enlarged the area planted and are making greater investments in land preparation, improved sowing techniques and the use of hired tractors. However, the impacts of the late season onset may dampen the optimism. The long rains season accounts for 85 percent of the annual national maize output, and seven districts alone (Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Kericho, Nakuru, Bungoma and Malava Lugari) in the Rift Valley and western highlands contribute just over 50 percent of the national long rains output. Rains have been generally favorable in the highlands, after a delayed onset. The delayed onset was beneficial in central, western and Rift Valley highlands as it facilitated harvesting of the short rains crop and land preparation for the long rains crop. Since the long rains season runs through December in the key producing areas of the Rift Valley and western Kenya, significant changes in agroclimatology and growing conditions could occur. As such, while the early signs are promising there is still a long way to go before the outcome of the season can be projected accurately. However, since the late start, the long rains have been erratic in the southeastern and coastal lowlands, causing some of the early planted crop to wither. Although the long rains season is less important than the short rains season, it contributes to bridging household food deficits that are characteristic of the notoriously drought prone and highly food insecure lowlands. Should rains fail to establish in these areas in a consistent fashion over the next few weeks, crop failure is probable, since the rains end early, in early June, in the lowlands. These areas contribute only 6 percent to national long rains maize output, but locally, crop failure would have a severe impact on the fragile food security of the area s households. National maize supply is favorable and the MoA estimates that the country has about 1.65 million MT of maize, sufficient to last up to seven months, well beyond the start of the long rains harvest toward the end of July. Maize prices have remained generally stable and marginally above average, across key reference markets, ranging from Ksh 1,000 per 90 kg bag in key surplus areas to Ksh 1,200 in major urban markets and Ksh 2,400 in pastoral markets. In contrast, maize prices have declined in the short rains dependent and drought prone marginal agricultural lowlands along the coast and in the southeast after the harvest in March. The farm gate price among these food insecure farm households has declined to as low as Ksh per 90kg bag, in contrast to the current purchasing prices of between 900 1,000 Ksh, and prices of Ksh 1,800 2,100 only six months ago. The low farm gate prices are attributed to a combination of the lack of storage infrastructure that encourages farmers to sell newly harvested grain quickly so as to avoid heavy post harvest losses; the Kenya Food Security Network 4

5 absence of an organized marketing system; and immediate need for income to finance payment of school fees and other household expenditures. The low farm gate prices emphasize that a good season will not necessarily assure sustained food security as long as bargaining capacities and market factors remain unfavorable and exacerbated by limited livelihood options. Conclusion In spite of the delay in the onset of the 2007 long rains season, rains have picked up considerably and the initial prognosis favors the consolidation of the recovery process. Nevertheless, livelihoods, especially the pastoral and the marginal agricultural livelihoods, have endured an extended period of successive shocks during the past five years, most notably droughts, floods and conflict. As a result, livelihoods have been eroded, deepening chronic food insecurity. While pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods have strengthened after favorable short rains, they are hardly self sufficient. In many areas, relief food is still required for a substantial proportion of the pastoral population. More importantly however, is the implementation of livelihood support interventions that not only mitigate the impacts of shocks and hazards but also enhance the ability of the livelihood to withstand the next shock without sinking to a new debilitating low. Kenya Food Security Network 5