Managing Bangladesh Agriculture under Climate Change

Transcription

1 Managing Bangladesh Agriculture under Climate Change M. Asaduzzaman Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Dhaka, Bangladesh

2 Agriculture s Contribution to Economy & Livelihood Share in GDP just ~ a fifth Supplies basic raw materials to industries such as rice milling, jute textiles, sugar, cigarettes, leather, tea, edible oil, paper inc newsprint Main market for fertiliser industry Main services such as trade and transport depend heavily on marketing of agric products Produces >90% of basic staples such as rice Provides employment to >60% of labour force Second most important foreign exchange earner after RMG

3 Flip Sides of Present Agriculture Almost a monocrop system mn out of mn acres devoted to rice alone a risky business Dry period boro rice highly energy intensive Wet period aman highly weather-dependent Environmental degradation particularly in land Results in significant year to year fluctuations in output Unless agric can be made as climate proof as possible, future food security as well as economic growth and livelihood of millions to be jeopardised because of its backward and forward linkages in economy

4 Rice output by season Am an Aus Boro Mn mt

5 Year to Year Rice Output Variability Total-p Aman-p Aus-p Boro-p

6 Vulnerability of Agriculture Arises mainly from water abundance or scarcity, seasonal patterns and associated weather events such as cyclones and storm surges, salinity ingress Aman and boro are affected differently Also vulnerability due to tiny size of most farms Farms up to 2.5 acres share in 2005 was 87% of all Farmed 59% of total land Capacity to withstand crop failure very low

7 Agriculture & Adaptation in BCCSAP Development of Climate Resilient Cultivars Heat, drought, salinity, submergence tolerant & shorter maturity varieties Dev ment of Climate Resilient Cropping Systems Cultivars suited to agro-climatic-soil zones Appropriate crop-water management Fisheries and livestock management to adapt to warmer, more humid climate Early warning systems against weather risks Risk management for output failure Agl and crop diversification- review of experiences Insurance

8 Mitigation in Agriculture Lower energy needs in tillage and irrigation through research on low tillage, low consumptive water needs Lower methane emission through appropriate water management in flooded as well as irrigated rice fields Improved manure management to lower methane emission Improved livestock feeding to lower methane emission Soil carbon management in forests LULUCF and REDD issues

9 Investment in Agriculture under CC Investment in research for agricultural adaptation and mitigation Should build upon present best case crop dev programs BR 33, BR 47 experience International research collaboration as BD research cycle too long Investment resource needs for food import A holistic, integrated approach Need of modeling to understand the trade-offs

10 Recommendations Research system needs to gear up Needs a thorough review of NARS from CC angle Should build upon NARS strengths To look for collaborative research arrangements with other countries Synergy bet n agric mitigation and adaptation needs to be kept in mind Resources to be mobilised, efficiently allocated and effectively utilised KGET/KGF Climate Change fund domestic, bilateral, multilateral various funding arrangements incl REDD For assessing investment Need to revisit existing agric policies including revamping extension system Other research and related programs Planning of programmes to be made climate-sensitive need for guidelines

11 THANK YOU