GEOGLAM : Global Agricultural Monitoring

Transcription

1 GEOGLAM : Global Agricultural Monitoring Jai Singh Parihar on behalf of GEOGLAM Task Team (Chris Justice, Shinichi Sobue, Olivier Leo, Wu Bingfang, Derrick Williams, Inbal Becker-Reshef, Ian Jarvis, Terry Newby, Michel Deshayes and ALL OF YOU) 7 th GEOSS-Asia Pacific, Tokyo, May 26-28, 2014

2 1. Background : The G20 Agriculture Priority (2011) We, the G20 Agriculture Ministers, meet today to address the issue of food price volatility with the ultimate objective to improve food security and agree on an Action Plan on food price volatility and agriculture that will be submitted to our Leaders at their Summit in November (introduction of the G20 Agriculture Action Plan, June 2011) At risk : - Access to food for populations - Investment in the agricultural sector (increase production by +70% over )

3 1. Background : The G20 Agriculture Priority (2011) Food price dynamics is not crop specific Corn Monthly Prices $/MT Soybeans Monthly Price $/MT Societal impact is global Wheat Monthly Price$/MT

4 1. Background : The G20 Agriculture Priority (2011) Two initiatives to increase information availability, quality and transparency : GEO-GLAM AMIS : improve information on markets (FAO) GEOGLAM : improve information on supply (GEO) Supply Price Demand Policies Finance Trade Stocks AMIS

5 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan To strengthen the international community s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate information and forecasts on agricultural production at national, regional and global scales, through reinforced use of Earth Observations.

6 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan To strengthen the international community s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate information and forecasts on agricultural production at national, regional and global scales, through reinforced use of Earth Observations. GEOGLAM is a «coordination programme», aiming at - supporting, strengthening and articulating existing efforts - developing capacities and awareness at national and global level - disseminating information

7 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM - 05/2011 Curitiba : XVI SBSR Brazilian Remote Sensing Symposium (Drafting of GEOGLAM proposal) - 05/2011 Paris : Approval by G20 Agriculture - 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries) - 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Assembly (87 countries, ~20 space ag., >50 reg. org.) - 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting - 02/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM Workplan - 02/2012 Roma : Present. to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group - 02/2012 Canbera : International Workshop on crop monitoring - 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth Foro de expectativas agropecuarias - 03/2012 La Jolla : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team - 04/2012 Tokyo : 5 th GEOSS-Asia Pacific - 05/2012 Perth : APRSAF/SAFE - 06/2012 Mexico : G20 Agriculture Delegates - 07/2012 Montréal : Definition of Earth Observations data requirements with CEOS - 10/2012 Roma : Presentation to 2 nd AMIS meeting - 10/2012 Bangalore : EO data requirements CEOS Plenary - 10/2012 Pattaya: 33 rd Asian Conference on Remote Sensing - 02/2013 Ahmedabad, 6 th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium - 10/2013 Bali: 34 th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing + regional and national meetings and presentations

8 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM - 05/2011 Curitiba : XVI SBSR Brazilian Remote Sensing Symposium (Drafting of GEOGLAM proposal) - 05/2011 Paris : Approval by G20 Agriculture - 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries) - 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Forecasting Assembly (87 Agricultural countries, ~20 output space using ag., >50 Space, reg. Agrometeorology org.) and Land based observations (FASAL) - 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting ISRO, /2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM Workplan Land - 02/2012 Roma : Present. to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group Observations - 02/2012 Canbera : International Workshop on crop monitoring - 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth Foro de expectativas agropecuarias - 03/2012 La Jolla : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team - 04/2012 Tokyo : 5 th GEOSS-Asia Pacific - 05/2012 Perth : APRSAF/SAFE Crop area & Production - 06/2012 Mexico : G20 Agriculture Crop Delegates area & Production - 07/2012 Montréal : Definition of Earth Observations data requirements with CEOS - 10/2012 Roma : Presentation to 2 nd AMIS meeting - 10/2012 Bangalore : EO data requirements CEOS Plenary MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST - 10/2012 Pattaya: 33 rd Asian Conference on Remote Sensing + regional and national meetings and presentations Cropped area - 02/2013 Ahmedabad, 6 th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium Pre- Early- - 10/2013 Bali: 34 th Asian Conference Season Remote Season Sensing Mid- Season State Crop condition Pre- Harvest State Crop acreage Pre- Harvest District Crop yield Revised Assessing Damage

9 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM - 05/2011 Curitiba : XVI SBSR Brazilian Remote Sensing Symposium (Drafting of GEOGLAM proposal) - 05/2011 Paris : Approval by G20 Agriculture - 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries) - 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Forecasting Assembly (87 Agricultural countries, ~20 output space using ag., >50 Space, reg. Agrometeorology org.) and Land based observations (FASAL) - 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting - 02/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM Workplan Land - 02/2012 Roma : Present. to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group Observations ISRO, /2012 Canbera : International Workshop on crop monitoring - 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth Foro de expectativas agropecuarias - 03/2012 La Jolla : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team Cropped area Crop condition - 04/2012 Tokyo : 5 th GEOSS-Asia Pacific Crop area & - 05/2012 Perth : APRSAF/SAFE Production - 06/2012 Mexico : G20 Agriculture Crop Delegates area & Production - 07/2012 Montréal : Definition of Earth Observations data requirements with CEOS - 10/2012 Roma : Presentation to 2 nd AMIS meeting - 10/2012 Bangalore : EO data requirements CEOS Plenary MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST - 10/2012 Pattaya: 33 rd Asian Conference on Remote Sensing + regional and national meetings and presentations - 02/2013 Ahmedabad, 6 th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium Pre- Early- - 10/2013 Bali: 34 th Asian Conference Season Remote Season Sensing Mid- Season State Pre- Harvest State Crop acreage Pre- Harvest District Crop yield Revised Assessing Damage

10 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan International cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM - 05/2011 Curitiba : XVI SBSR Brazilian Remote Sensing Symposium (Drafting of GEOGLAM proposal) - 05/2011 Paris : Approval by G20 Agriculture - 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries) - 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Forecasting Assembly (87 Agricultural countries, ~20 output space using ag., >50 Space, reg. Agrometeorology org.) and Land based observations (FASAL) - 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting - 02/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM Workplan Land - 02/2012 Roma : Present. to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group Observations ISRO, /2012 Canbera : International Workshop on crop monitoring - 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth Foro de expectativas agropecuarias - 03/2012 La Jolla : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team Cropped area Crop condition - 04/2012 Tokyo : 5 th GEOSS-Asia Pacific Crop area & - 05/2012 Perth : APRSAF/SAFE Production - 06/2012 Mexico : G20 Agriculture Crop Delegates area & Production - 07/2012 Montréal : Definition of Earth Observations data requirements with CEOS - 10/2012 Roma : Presentation to 2 nd AMIS meeting - 10/2012 Bangalore : EO data requirements CEOS Plenary MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST - 10/2012 Pattaya: 33 rd Asian Conference on Remote Sensing + regional and national meetings and presentations - 02/2013 Ahmedabad, 6 th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium Pre- Early- - 10/2013 Bali: 34 th Asian Conference Season Remote Season Sensing Mid- Season State Pre- Harvest State Crop acreage Pre- Harvest District Crop yield Revised Assessing Damage

11 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan 1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Main producer countries, main crops 2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation 3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK Food security assessment 4. EO DATA COORDINATION 5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination (JECAM) 6. Data, products and INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Stakeholders Governments AMIS FAO The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

12 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP, FAO) Meteorological Expertise (WMO) Earth Observation Expertise (CEOS) Satellite / ground data / models 1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Main producer countries, main crops 2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation 3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK Food security assessment 4. EO DATA COORDINATION 5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination (JECAM) 6. Data, products and INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Stakeholders Governments AMIS FAO The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

13 2. GEOGLAM : Objective, structure, workplan Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP, FAO) Meteorological Expertise (WMO) Earth Observation Expertise (CEOS) Satellite / ground data / models 1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Main producer countries, main crops 2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation 3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK Food security assessment 4. EO DATA COORDINATION 5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination (JECAM) 6. Data, products and INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Stakeholders Governments AMIS FAO The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

14 2. GEOGLAM : Earth Observation requirements Summary: EO Data/product requirements Developed taking into consideration the observation needs, the derived products they will serve, and regional specificities; CEOS-GEOGLAM July 2012 Montreal)

15 2. GEOGLAM : Earth Observation requirements Summary: EO Data/product requirements Developed taking into consideration the observation needs, the derived products they will serve, and regional specificities; CEOS-GEOGLAM July 2012 Montreal) 300m, daily, optical, superspectral? Why not better 10-20m, weekly, optical, multispectral 100m, daily, thermal

16 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Northern Hemisphere Crop NDVI Anomalies, Aug 13th, 2012 (Univ. Maryland) MODIS sensor (VIIRS in the future) Northern Hemisphere Crop LAI Anomalies, Aug 13th, 2012 (Geoland2, FP7) Vegetation sensor (Sentinel in the future) Independent and complementary sources The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

17 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Canada Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan USA China Quantified assessments India Current season crop development (2012) Average season development ( ) Crop condition anomalies, NDVI, August 13th, 2012

18 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Canada Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan USA China Quantified assessments India Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Corn/ Winter Wheat/ Corn anomaly Soy anomaly anomaly anomaly anomaly Current season crop development (2012) Average season development ( ) Crop condition anomalies, NDVI, August 13th, 2012

19 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Coupling EO data with meteorological data The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

20 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus From global monitoring to national monitoring : High resolution data

21 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus From global monitoring to national monitoring : High resolution data Regional specifities Range of Crop Calendars J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Potato Rice Wheat Corn Soybean Groundnut Sorghum Sugar crops Cotton Rapeseed/Canola

22 JUNE 30, 09 JUNE 30, 08 AUG 15, 09 AUG 15, L ha (2009) -87.0% 10.6 L ha (2008) JULY 15, 09 JULY 15, L ha (2009) -38.1% 97.1 L ha (2008) Expected sowing of coarse cereal in Lakh ha Lha (2009) -1.9% Lha (2008) JULY 31, 2009 JULY 31, 08 AUG 15, 09 AUG 15, Lha (2009) -29.7% Lha (2008) Lha (2009) -20.3% Crop Acreage Forecast Maps: Assessment of soil moisture availability for planting of rice and sowing of millets using satellite based rainfall estimates (Irrigation to be accounted separately). Graphs: Model prediction of area planted/sown using soil moisture Lha (2008) and crop calendar The 26 Expected th CEOS planting/sowing Plenary Bengaluru, of Rice India in Lakh ha October, 2012 Source : ISRO

23 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Landsat Class Observations Multiple use of EO data: GEOGLAM and GFOI Healthy natural vegetation Monitoring agricultural expansion Rondonia, Brazil (USGS / UNEP)

24 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Landsat Class Observations Healthy natural vegetation Fishbone pattern on the landscape indicates agriculture fields Monitoring agricultural expansion Rondonia, Brazil (USGS / UNEP)

25 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Landsat Class Observations Healthy natural vegetation Fishbone pattern on the landscape indicates agriculture fields Agriculture continues to replace forest cover Monitoring agricultural expansion Rondonia, Brazil (USGS / UNEP)

26 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Max-Planck Institute/ECHAM4 2080s Monitoring, modeling, simulating Global Change Impacts on Agriculture

27 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Rice area and culture type mapping ISRO, 2014

28 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Rice area and culture type mapping ISRO, 2014

29 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Rice area and culture type mapping ISRO, 2014

30 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus Rice area and culture type mapping ISRO, 2014

31 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus IRRI, 2014 Rice Area at country level using MODIS data: a) 500 m, b) 10 km

32 Crop Condition Global Outlook : Building International Consensus IRRI, 2014 Rice Area at country level using MODIS data: a) 500 m, b) 10 km

33 RADARSAT: 12-Oct-2013 Crop Condition Outlook : After the Episodic Events (Cyclone) RADARSAT: Oct 12, 2013 Need for Pooling Multi- Source Data Quick Turnaround ISRO, 2013

34 RADARSAT: 12-Oct Oct-2013 Crop Condition Outlook : After the Episodic Events (Cyclone) RADARSAT: Oct 12, 2013 RADARSAT: Oct 14, 2013 Need for Pooling Multi- Source Data Inundation Quick Turnaround ISRO, 2013

35 RISAT RADARSAT: : 16-Oct Oct Oct-2013 Crop Condition Outlook : After the Episodic Events (Cyclone) Inundation RADARSAT: Oct 12, 2013 RADARSAT: Oct 14, 2013 RiSAT: Oct 16, 2013 Need for Pooling Multi- Source Data Inundation Quick Turnaround ISRO, 2013

36 RISAT RADARSAT: RISAT: : 16-Oct Oct Oct Oct-2013 Crop Condition Outlook : After the Episodic Events (Cyclone) Inundation Inundation RADARSAT: Oct 12, 2013 RADARSAT: Oct 14, 2013 RiSAT: Oct 16, 2013 RiSAT: Oct 17, 2013 Need for Pooling Multi- Source Data Inundation Quick Turnaround Bay Of Bengal ISRO, 2013

37 4. GEOGLAM : CEOS support to the EO data segment Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP, FAO) Meteorological Expertise (WMO) Earth Observation Expertise (CEOS) Satellite / ground data / models 1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Main producer countries, main crops 2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation 3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK Food security assessment 4. EO DATA COORDINATION 5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination (JECAM) 6. Data, products and INFORMATION DISSEMINATION Stakeholders Governments AMIS FAO The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

38 4. GEOGLAM : Confidence Building

39 4. GEOGLAM : Confidence Building Confidence Building: A monthly bulletin for FAO-AMIS

40 Summary Importance of FOOD as an issue has been recognized globally. GEOGLAM is fully endorsed by the G20 and moving with implementation GEOGLAM needs a system of systems (GEOSS) : Coordinated development of observation system is called for. Efforts on showing the validity of concept are on. Ensuring the availability of data and development/validation of data analysis protocol being addressed. Task is challenging BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE Together We Can Make It Happen