National Drought Management Authority (Nyeri) COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER 2018

Transcription

1 National Drought Management Authority (Nyeri) COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER 2018 DECEMBER 2018 EWS PHASE Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators The month of December received above normal rains that were poorly distributed in time and space. The rains were received for an average of six to eight days. The vegetation condition was above normal across all the livelihood zones. Access to water had improved slightly compared to the previous month. Rivers were flowing at normal levels and water holding structures were 40 percent full. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production Indicators Farm activities progressed on well. Majority of the farmers were undertaking second weeding. Livestock body condition ranged from poor to fair for all species. Milk production was below normal threshold. Access indicators Terms of trade were less favourable for livestock keepers. Milk consumption was within normal ranges. Distances to water sources were within normal ranges. Utilization Indicators There were no reported cases of malnutrition for under-fives during the month under review. Coping strategy Index was below normal threshold. Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Mixed Farming Normal Stable Agro pastoral Normal Stable County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value Rainfall (% of 220% 80%-120% Normal) VCI-3Month Forage fair fair Production Value Normal indicators Crop Condition fair Fair (specify crop) Livestock Body Poor-fair Fair Condition Milk Production 4.5 litres 5.1 litres Livestock Migration None Normal Pattern Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption Distance to water sources Utilization Value Normal indicators Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) Coping Strategy 3.88 <5.0 Index (CSI) Seasonal Calendar Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1

2 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE. The onset of the October-November-December (OND) was late by almost 30 days. The rains started in the second week of November. During the month of November the rains were low and erratic. However, its progression into the month of December was above normal but poorly distribution in time and space. On average Kieni East and Kieni West sub counties received rains for an average of six to eight days, with an exception of some localised areas in marginal mixed livelihood zones that received rains for an average of two to three days. Nyeri County received 220 percent of the normal rains in December. In the first, second and the third dekad the county received 67.6mm, 90.8mm and 11.3mm compared to long term averages of 27mm, 24.4mm and 25.5mm as shown in figure 1. Figure 1: Presentation of the rainfall trend IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The vegetation condition was normal compared to the long term averages. The month s Vegetation condition index stood at 56.2 in December indicative of above normal vegetation greenness as shown in figure 2(a) and (b) below. 2

3 Figure 2(a): Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) - December 2018 Figure 2(b) 3 monthly VCI for Nyeri County Pasture The pasture conditions had improved during the month under review compared to the previous month. This could be attributed to the seasonal rains. However, due to the late onset of the rains the grass was still in the early stages of development and too low for the grazers forcing the livestock to graze in the forest and along road reserves. Poor pasture conditions were reported in lower zones in agro pastoral livelihood zones attributed to the dismal performance of the rains and overgrazing. The situation was further worsened by frequent frost bites. Current situation is within normal range. Available pasture is expected to last for a month in agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in mixed farming livelihood zones. 3

4 Figure 3(a): Nyeri county pasture condition Browse Browse condition was fair in both mixed farming livelihood zones and agro pastoral livelihood zones. However, areas bordering the mountains that had been received offseason rains before the onset of the OND registered good conditions as shown in figure 4 (b) below. Compared to a normal year and the same period last year the current situation is below normal. Figure 4(a): Nyeri county browse condition. WATER RESOURCE Sources Access to water had improved slightly, across all the livelihood zones compared to the previous month. Rivers were flowing at normal levels and water holding structures were 40 percent full. Water rationing had eased except in the areas of Kabati in Endarasha/Mwiyogo ward where household were receiving water three days in a week. Rivers remained the singular source of water to most households in Kieni at 48.1 percent a 4

5 decrease of 36 percent as compared to last month. The remaining households relied on other water sources that included pans and dams, springs and traditional river wells as shown in figure 3 below. Figure 5: Nyeri county water sources Household access and Utilization Distances from the househld to water sources dropped by 6.7 percent from 1.5 Km in November to 1.4 Km in December. This could be attributed to the OND seasonal rains. In mixed farming livelihood zones and agro pastoral livelihood zones distances reduced by 25 percent and 13.8 percent respectively. Registered distances were lower by 6.7 percent compared to the long term averages of 1.5 Km as shown in figure 6 below. Figure 6: presentation of average return distances to water 5

6 2.2.3 Livestock access Average distances from grazing field to watering points remained same as was reported last month at 1.7 Km. Compared to short term average of 2 Km, reported distances were lower by 21 percent as shown in figure 7. Current watering frequency for animals is twice daily which was normal in Kieni at this time of the year. Figure 7: presentation of average grazing distances to water 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition were fair to poor across livelihood zones attributed to poor pasture conditions and long distances in search of pasture. Current body conditions are poor as compared to normal Livestock Diseases No contagious livestock disease outbreaks reported in the region for the period of monitoring Milk Production Milk production decreased slightly by 10 percent from 5 litres in November to 4.5 litres in December. The decrease in production could be attributed to poor livestock body conditions. The month s production was lower by 11.7 percent compared to the long term average of 5.1 litres as shown in figure 8 below. 6

7 Figure 8: Presentation of average milk production for the region 3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month under review farm activities progressed well. Farmers were undertaking second weeding. Crops were at different stages of development. Maize was at below knee height to knee height, beans and potatoes were at vegetative stage to flowering stage. Due to the delay in the onset of the rains by almost 30 days, crops were lost during germination stage in at least ten to fifteen percent of the area planted. Only five percent of the area was replanted due to the high cost of farm inputs leading to a decrease in the area put under crop production. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING Cattle Prices Livestock prices remained relatively stable during the month under review compared to previous month. A mature three year old bull sold for Ksh 28,417 in December compared to Ksh 28,000 in November. Registered price were within the normal threshold compared to the short term average of Ksh 28,798 as outlined in figure 9. 7

8 Figure 9: Presentation of average cattle prices Sheep prices A mature three year old ram sold for Ksh 5,076 in December which is quite comparable to Ksh 5,083 in November. The registered prices were higher by 55 percent compared to the short term averages of Ksh 3,273 as shown in figure 10. Figure 10: Presentation of average sheep prices 4.2 CROP PRICES Maize Maize prices increased by 39 percent to retail at Ksh 31.9 in December compared to Ksh 22.9 in November. Increase in prices can be attributed to over reliance on markets for supply due to exhaustion of the commodity at the household level. Compared to the short term averages of Ksh 44, current price were lower by 27.5 percent as shown in figure 11 below. 8

9 Figure 11: Outlines average price trends for maize Beans Beans prices have been on an upward trend since September attributed to over reliance of markets for supply. During the month of December prices increased by five percent to retail at Ksh 82 from Ksh 78 in November. The month s price was within the normal threshold compared to the short term average of Ksh 84.7 as shown in figure 12 below. Figure 12: Outlines average price trends for beans 4.3 Livestock Price Ratio/Terms of Trade The Terms of Trade (ToTs) based on cereal/ meat ratio decreased by 27 percent compared to the previous month. The decrease in TOTs is due to an increase in maize prices. A sale of one goat fetched 159 Kg of cereals in December compared to Kg in November. The current terms of trade were less favourable to livestock keepers during the month under 9

10 review compared to the previous month. The month s TOT was above the short term average of 104 as shown in figure 13 below. Figure 13: Outlines terms of trade 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION Milk consumption remained same as was reported last month at 1.5 litres. The month s consumption was within the long term average of 1.5 litres as shown in figure 14 below. Figure 14: Outlines milk consumption for the county 10

11 5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE The food consumption patterns were relatively stable during the month under review compared to the previous month. Proportions of households with borderline and acceptable food consumption score in the sampled population during the month of December were 36 percent and 64 percent which was quite comparable to 38 percent and 63 percent in November. All the households sampled in agro pastoral livelihood zones had an acceptable food consumption score compared to 35 percent in mixed farming livelihood zones as shown in figure 15 below. This is an indication that households in agro pastoral livelihood zones had a higher dietary diversity and consumption frequency. Figure 15: Outlines FCS by livelihood zones 5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS Nutrition Status There were no reported cases of malnutrition for under fives during the month under rview as indicated in figure 16 below. 11

12 Figure 16: Presentation of nutrition status of children below five years 5.4 COPING STRATEGIES The months mean coping strategy increased by 13 percent from 3.42 in November to 3.88 in December. Increase in the mean CSI could be attributed to exhaustion of food stock at the household level coupled with unavailability of the early maturing crops due to the poor performance of the rains. Agro pastoral farming livelihood zones registered a higher coping strategy index of 6.1 as compared to 2.1 in Mixed farming livelihood zones as indicated in figure 17 below. This is an indication that households in mixed farming livelihood zones were employing coping mechanisms more frequently as compared to their counterpart in agro pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 17: outlines the mean Coping Strategy Index 12

13 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS There were no non-food interventions during the month under review. 6.2 FOOD AID There were no food interventions during the month under review. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES. 7.1 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS From next month, forage and water sources are expected to get depleted due to the poor performance of the OND rains. Distances to grazing fields and from the grazing fields to water sources are expected to increase leading to deterioration in livestock body conditions hence, a decline in access to milk at the household level. The household purchasing power will likely get erode further given that majority of the households have exhausted their food stocks and will entirely depend on market purchases for staple food items LIVESTOCK AND MIGRATION. There were no unusual human and or livestock s movements into or out of the county. Observed animals movement within the county was for grazing and watering. 8. RECOMMENDATIONS Activation of sectoral working groups to prepare for response plans (Action: NDMA) Rehabilitation of strategic water points e.g boreholes (Action: CGN) Encourage surface water harvesting (Action: CGN) Provision of supplementary feeds for livestock (Action: CGN) Activation of peace committees in anticipation of likely conflict arising from scarce of resources (Action: NDMA) Provision of relief food to needy households (Action: Department of special programmes) Undertake a rapid assessment (Action: NDMA) 13